Original title: National coal daily output refreshes its historical peak, coal shortage has basically solved the market’s slack sentiment and re-emerged. Source: The Financial Association
The National Development and Reform Commission recently stated that the country’s daily coal output reached a record of 12.05 million tons. With the continuous increase in national coal production and market supply, the level of coal supply, coal storage in power plants and coal storage at ports has been further improved.
On Thursday night, the main contract of thermal coal 2201 contract fell under the pressure of policy news, and today the price of thermal coal futures remained low and fluctuated, and finally closed at 864 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.61%.
The determination of policy regulation remains unchanged
Market participants said that Nissan’s coal production set a new historical peak, state-owned coal enterprises cut prices again, coal inventories rose rapidly, and the tight supply and demand of thermal coal continued to improve marginally. We are about to enter the peak of coal consumption in the winter, and coal prices are still under pressure to rebound, but judging from the news, the determination of policy regulation has not changed.
According to the latest data from the National Development and Reform Commission, on November 10, the daily output of coal dispatch reached 12.05 million tons, a record high, an increase of 120,000 tons from the previous peak. The coal output of Shanxi, Shaanxi, Xinjiang and other provinces all hit new highs in recent years.
The coal supply from power plants nationwide once again exceeded 8 million tons, reaching 8.143 million tons; the coal supply exceeded coal consumption by 2.043 million tons, and the power plants stored coal reached 123 million tons, and the available days exceeded 21 days. On November 11, the major northern ports had 24 million tons of coal, an increase of more than 4 million tons from the beginning of the month; among them, Qinhuangdao Port had 5.65 million tons of coal, an increase of 600,000 tons from the beginning of the month.
Market bearish sentiment is rising again
Market participants pointed out that from the disk, the main bulls have lightened up more recently, and the funds are showing a slight outflow trend. At present, the price of port pit mouths continues to fall, and sales are also cooling down compared with the previous period. In addition, the daily average output of the mine has rebounded significantly compared with the previous period, and the tight supply situation has eased.
Zhao Yongjun, a researcher of China Securities Investment Futures, told the Financial Association that the current supply guarantee policy has achieved remarkable results. Ports and power plant inventories have rebounded sharply, but the demand is correct during the peak season, and the daily consumption of power plants is at a historical high. Without the influence of new negative factors, coal is expected The price will mainly fluctuate at a low level.
Zhang Mengchao, a researcher at Galaxy Futures, told the Caixing News Agency that thermal coal has been mixed in the game of fundamentals and capital sentiment in the near future.
The coal shortage in the market has basically been resolved
Market participants pointed out that since October, under the background of strong policies to ensure supply in the coal market, the supply has increased substantially and the coal shortage in the market has basically been solved. The problem of “coal shortage” in the fourth quarter is basically difficult to reproduce, and the gap is slowly being made up in the continuous surplus. .
The CITIC Futures Research Report pointed out that the determination of the production side to ensure supply and the intensity of landing continue to increase, and the continuous increase of the supply side is basically certain, but if the peak season starts, there are still hidden worries, especially during the peak season.
However, on October 25, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a list of key coal mines to be included in this winter and spring, involving a total of 35 coal mines in Sanxi and Xinjiang, and nuclear capacity increase of 78 million tons, of which Inner Mongolia nuclear increase of 21.6 million tons. According to an optimistic assessment, the capacity increment that can be released in the fourth quarter will be around 250 million tons.
The National Energy Administration recently requested that the performance of medium and long-term contracts be strengthened, and market entities are encouraged to negotiate and sign supplementary agreements on their own, agreeing on transaction prices or floating mechanisms, and relevant departments and units shall not forcefully interfere.
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