Original Title: New Energy Automobile Industry 2021 Mid-term Strategy Report: Increased demand, improved supply, and high growth in annual performance can be expected
Demand side: China, Europe, and the United States have made efforts to achieve high sales growth throughout the year. In the first 4 months of this year, the nation’s cumulative sales of new energy vehicles totaled 732,000, a year-on-year increase of 2.5 times, and the penetration rate reached 8.3%, an increase of 2.9pct compared to 2020; European new energy vehicle subsidies continued, and sales grew rapidly; the United States introduced The new energy vehicle subsidy policy can expect rapid growth in the future. According to our forecast, sales in China, Europe, and the United States will reach 2.4 million, 2 million, and 600,000 vehicles respectively this year, and sales will grow rapidly.
Supply side: High-quality supply stimulates C-side consumption and impacts the fuel vehicle market in all directions. In terms of vehicle models, new energy vehicle companies have changed from catering to the subsidy policy to catering to market demand; in terms of performance comparison, low-end new energy vehicles have outstanding sales, and high-end new energy vehicles have better performance than traditional fuel vehicles. Traditional fuel vehicles have also been significantly reduced; in terms of intelligence, autonomous driving has entered the L3 stage, which fully reduces the driving pressure of drivers and enhances the driving experience; in terms of raw material supply, the middle and upper reaches of the industrial chain are actively expanding production to ensure stable supply and further impact Fuel car market.
Main line 1: The link with strong short-term profitability or smooth cost transmission.The supply and demand relationship of lithium hexafluorophosphate is tight, the price continues to rise, the shortage of additive VC continues, and the short-term profitability is relatively certain; lithium battery copper foil companies are basically in full production, and the market is in short supply. The year-to-date price of 8μm copper foil has increased by 27.7%; lithium iron phosphate The market share of batteries in the power battery field has steadily increased, and the energy storage field has a bright future. The price has increased by 36.4% year-to-date, leading the companyDefang NanoProfitability continued to improve; the price of high nickel ternary batteries remained high, the market share increased significantly, and the profitability and certainty were strong. Related subject matter:Polyfluoride、Godsend materials、Nord shares、Defang Nano、Fulin Precision、Rongbai TechnologyWait.
Main line 2: Obvious competitive advantages, binding core customers, leading companies in all aspects of long-term benefit from industry expansion. The midstream lithium battery and lithium battery materials segment has a relatively stable pattern, but competition among downstream vehicle companies has intensified. Huawei,BaiduModels that technology giants cooperate with traditional car companies have been launched one after another. The trend of electrification and intelligence provides domestic car companies with cornering overtaking opportunities, and the entire vehicle industry may reshuffle.Companies that have competitive advantages in cost and technology in the upper and middle reaches, and have the possibility of global expansion, and at the same time bind their core customers, will benefit from new energy in the long termAutomobile industryThe rapid development dividend. Related subject matter:Ningde era、Yiwei Lithium Energy、Guoxuan Hi-Tech、Enjie shares、Putailai、Zhongke ElectricWait.
Main line 3: Accelerate the construction of new energy infrastructure, and pay attention to enterprises related to power station replacement and charging piles. In May, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the “Implementation Opinions on Further Improving the Service Guarantee Capability of Charging and Switching Infrastructure (Draft for Comment)”, indicating that it is necessary to accelerate the construction and installation of charging facilities in residential communities and improve the guarantee of charging and switching in urban and rural areas Ability to strengthen the operation and maintenance of charging and replacement facilities and network services, do a good job in supporting grid construction and power supply services, and increase fiscal, taxation and financial support. The sales of new energy vehicles are growing rapidly, and the construction of charging piles needs to be accelerated. It is expected that the construction of infrastructure such as charging piles and swap stations will accelerate in the future. Related subject matter:Terad、Shandong Weida、Shenghong sharesOther risk warnings: policy risk; lower than expected sales volume; risk of raw material price fluctuations.
(Source: Chuancai Securities)
(Editor in charge: DF506)
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