Investment point of view: the price of photovoltaic industry chain is rising, and policy support continues to increase
The performance of the power equipment sector continued to be under pressure this week. Photovoltaic sector: From a fundamental point of view, affected by demand factors such as India’s rush to install, the prices of the entire industry chain have risen to varying degrees. At present, the cost pressure on the component side is relatively large, and it is expected that the price may increase slightly after the full resumption of work. This week, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the “Opinions on Improving the System, Mechanism and Policy Measures for the Green and Low-Carbon Transformation of Energy”, emphasizing the promotion of the optimal combination of coal and new energy, and handling development and emission reduction, overall and local, short-term and medium-to-long-term. It shows a certain degree of correction for the “carbon charge” and sports “carbon reduction” some time ago, but we believe that the “dual carbon” policy is still the main theme of future development in the general direction. At the same time, the “Opinions” also proposed the development of BIPV, large-scale wind and solar bases, and distributed photovoltaics, which also reflects the country’s attitude to fully tap new energy resources and needs and continue to increase policy. Wind power sector: Beginning this week, intensive bidding for wind power projects including China Resources and Huaneng will be opened. On the whole, we believe that with the moderate improvement of the industrial chain, the recovery of operating rates of all links, the recovery of downstream demand, and the continuous support from the policy side, the current short-term correction provides a good configuration opportunity, giving the power equipment industry “growth”. Hold” rating.
Industry News: “1+N” important security plan released to promote green and low-carbon transformation of energy
Industry trends: 1) The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the “Opinions on Improving the System, Mechanism, and Policy Measures for Energy Green and Low-Carbon Transformation”, which was a response to the “Carbon Peak Action Plan before 2030” issued by the State Council in October 2021. The carbon peaking in the energy sector has been implemented in detail in the Notice. The “Opinions” put forward 38 specific measures, including encouraging the application of photovoltaic building integration, encouraging the construction of photovoltaics in rural areas, railways and highways, and accelerating the construction of large-scale wind and solar bases. 2) The planning of the second batch of large-scale wind power base projects has been basically completed, with a total scale of more than 400GW. 3) Shandong issued the “14th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development in Shandong Province”. It is planned that by 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power will reach 25GW, and the photovoltaic The cumulative installed capacity has reached more than 57GW, and the distributed photovoltaic large-scale development capacity of the whole county has reached more than 20GW. 4) Gansu issued the “14th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development of Gansu Province”, and it is planned that the cumulative installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaics will reach 38.53GW and 41.69GW respectively by 2025, an increase of 24.8GW and 32.03GW compared with 2020.
Company news: 1) Bid opening of 455MW wind power project, Envision Energy won the bid for 405MW in advance, and Guodian United Power won the bid for 50MW. 2)Jinko TechnologyIt is planned to invest in a 300MW photovoltaic power generation project in Saudi Arabia. 3)Jinlang Technology897 million yuan to be issuedconvertible bonds, for the construction of distributed photovoltaic power plants. 4)Shuangliang energy savingandHopson Silicon IndustryDongfang hopes to sign a 744 million reduction furnace ordercontract. 5) China Resources 500MW wind power project opened the bid, 9 complete machine manufacturers bid, the lowest price including tower is 2002 yuan/kW.6)JA TechnologyIt is planned to spend 3.5 billion to expand the integrated production capacity, and the expansion scope covers silicon wafers,Battery, auxiliary materials and downstream power stations. 7) Jinyang Silicon 20GW heterojunctionBatteryThe base material project started. 8) SPIC opened the bid for 10GW modules and inverters, and JA, Yingli, Jinko, Trina, Haitai, Sunshine, Shangneng, TBEA, Jinlang, etc. were shortlisted. 9) Huaneng 1138.5MW wind power project opened the bid, Sany Heavy Energy won the pre-bid 759MW, the bid price including the tower was 1,745.7 million yuan, equivalent to a unit price of 2,300 yuan/kW; Envision Energy won the pre-bid 379.5MW, and the bid price including the tower was 961.4 million yuan, equivalent to The unit price is 2533 yuan/kW.
Industry chain tracking: Silicon material prices remain stable and slightly up, and module prices are brewing
Silicon material: The domestic single crystal re-feeding price range this week is 235,000-247,000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price has risen to 242,700 yuan / ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.66%; single crystal dense material price range is 233.3-245,000 yuan RMB/ton, the average transaction price rose to RMB 240,200/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.71%. This week, the price of silicon material continued to remain stable and rose slightly, among which the average transaction price of single crystal re-feeding, single crystal dense material and single crystal cauliflower material increased by about 0.7%. In February, both the supply and demand of the silicon material market increased, but according to the production plans of the silicon material and silicon wafer companies, the supply increase of about 2,000 tons was not as good as the demand increase. The supply of the silicon material market in February will remain relatively short. Therefore, The order in February was quickly signed in advance. It is expected that the price of silicon material will maintain a relatively stable operation before a large number of March orders are signed at the end of the month. Silicon wafers: The average transaction price of 166mm monocrystalline silicon wafers in China this week was 5.28 yuan/piece, up 2.5% from the previous month; the average transaction price of 182mm monocrystalline silicon wafers was 6.35 yuan/piece, up 3.3% from the previous month; 210mm monocrystalline silicon wafers were traded The average price was 8.45 yuan/piece, up 4.3% month-on-month. This week, the price of silicon wafers has basically formed a general upward trend of various specifications. From the Spring Festival holiday to this week, the production of silicon wafers was relatively stable. Even though the recovery of wafer pulling operations of some companies was still hindered, the overall wafer pulling operation in the follow-up period in February increased significantly. The signing and execution of wafer orders were good, and some high-priced orders were made. Also under active signing.Battery: The domestic average transaction price of 166mm cells this week was 1.09 yuan/W, up 0.9% month-on-month; the domestic 182mm cell average transaction price this week was 1.11 yuan/W, up 0.9% month-on-month; the domestic 210mm cell average transaction price this week It was 1.11 yuan/W, up 2.8% month-on-month. After the Spring Festival holiday, upstream prices continued to rise, resulting in a slight increase in the transaction price of battery cells this week. The high point of the cell price last year was more than 1.1 yuan/W, and the corresponding module price was around 1.95-2 yuan/W. Considering the acceptance of downstream components, the subsequent domestic cell price adjustment to 1.13-1.14 yuan/W possibility Therefore, it is expected that the domestic cell price will remain stable in the short term. Overseas regions benefit from the tide of stockpiling in India, and there is still some room for a premium. Modules: The average transaction price of 166mm modules in China this week was 1.86 yuan/W, up 0.5% from the previous month; the average transaction prices of 182mm and 210mm modules were 1.88 yuan/W and 1.88 yuan/W respectively, the same as last week. Component prices were stable this week. After the Spring Festival holiday, the pressure on the component side continued to superimpose. Due to the rising cost of raw materials, auxiliary materials such as backplanes and glass began to rise, and the price of the supply chain was superimposed. The component side is also brewing. Prices have not yet been adjusted.
Market performance last week: power equipment sector rose -8.18%, ranking 28th
Last week’s market review: The power equipment sector rose -8.18% (-1.92% last week), ranking 28th in terms of growth (a total of 28 first-level sub-sectors), compared to the Shanghai Composite Index -11.20 percentage points, compared toCSI 300Index -9.01 percentage points.
Among the constituent stocks of the industry (Shenwan Power Equipment) last week, the top five weekly gainers and losers were *ST Tiancheng (+21.43%),Jiangte Motor(+18.74%)、Wanli Shares( +14.94% ) 、Huijintong( +14.93% ) andDalian Electric Porcelain( +13.33% ) , the bottom five of the weekly rise and fall areNew Strong Alliance(-18.75%), *ST Dongdian (-19.10%),Billion Huatong-U(-21.09%)、Yunda shares(-22.36%) andCITIC Bo(-27.83%)。
risk warning
Risk of sharp price reduction of products, sharp rise in raw material prices, lower than expected downstream demand, risk of intensified competition in the industry, systemic risk of the broader market, recommended companiesperformanceNot up to expectations etc.
(Article source: Huaxinsecurities）