According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in September, domestic production of new energy vehicles was 353,000, a month-on-month increase of 14.5% and a year-on-year increase of 1.5 times; sales of 357,000 vehicles, a month-on-month increase of 11.4% and a year-on-year increase of 148%, monthly production and sales data continued to refresh history Record, exceeding market expectations. Since the beginning of this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have reached 2.166 million and 2.157 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 1.8 times and 1.9 times.
New energy vehicles are also developing rapidly abroad. The penetration rate of electric vehicles in Europe reached a new high in September. Electric vehicle sales in Germany, France, Norway, Britain, Sweden, and Italy totaled 175,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 42% and a month-on-month increase of 54%. Germany, the United Kingdom and France will rank among the top three in Europe in terms of cumulative sales of electric vehicles in 2021. In September, the penetration rate of electric vehicles in Norway exceeded 90%, Sweden exceeded 50%, France exceeded 20%, and Germany approached 30%, all setting new highs in all countries, and the process of electrification of automobiles in Europe is accelerating.
The car core shortage problem is slightly alleviated
The Malaysian epidemic has brought new gaps in chips, leading to a slowdown in automotive chips in the third quarter and a decline in car sales. In September, domestic automobile sales reached 2.067 million units, an increase of 14.9% month-on-month, a year-on-year decrease of 19.6%, and a decrease of 9.1% compared with the same period in 2019. However, September data shows that the shortage of chip supply is gradually improving, especially independent traditional car companies and new energy car companies to strengthen their supply chain advantages and effectively alleviate the pressure of chip shortages.
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from the situation of the month, chip supply has eased slightly, but it still cannot meet production needs. In addition, the base figure of the same period last year is high. Therefore, the month-on-month automobile production and sales increased month-on-month, but decreased year-on-year. Looking into the fourth quarter, the overall supply of chips is expected to be better than that in the third quarter, but the supply is still in short supply.
Changjiang Securities believes that in the first three quarters of 2021, the industry is suppressed by chips, and the production and sales are sluggish. The pressure on subsequent chips is expected to gradually ease. The sales volume of the auto industry for the whole year is expected to show a V-shaped trend.
Under the influence of car core shortage, the growth rate of new energy vehicles far exceeds that of traditional fuel vehicles. The superposition of policies such as carbon neutrality is favorable, and the era of vehicle electrification is fully coming. The global new energy vehicle industry as a whole presents the dual characteristics of “electric acceleration + smart opening”. Traditional auto companies have transformed one after another, and new energy vehicle manufacturing forces have accelerated their entry. With the advantages of R&D and supply, new energy vehicles are less affected by the lack of cores of vehicles and maintain a rapid development trend.
The third quarterly report performance of the automobile sector is generally expected to increase
According to the statistics of Securities Times·Databao, there are a total of 207 auto industry stocks in A-shares. Judging from past market conditions, most of the auto stocks have retraced since September, and nearly 30% of the stocks have retraced more than 10%. The shares of Lizhong Group, Aikelan, Nanfang Bearing, and Camel have retraced more than 20%.
Optimistic about the industry’s prosperity, the agency predicts high earnings growth for many stocks. Among the auto stocks rated by more than 5 institutions, 7 institutions predict that the compound growth rate of net profit in the next three years will be more than 50%. Shuanghuan Transmission, Wencan shares, and Longsheng Technology predict the top growth rates, respectively 126.74%, 92.55%, 92.02%.
At present, 14 auto industry stocks have released their third-quarter performance forecasts, of which 13 are expected to increase their performance. Judging from the lower limit of the forecasted net profit year-on-year growth, ST Baling is expected to increase by more than 4027% in the first place. Other top growth rates are Shuanghuan Transmission, Landai Technology, and Dawei, which are expected to increase by 1313%, 455%, and 204% respectively. .
BYD’s September production and sales bulletin showed that the company achieved sales of 71,100 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 257.62%, and continued to rank first in domestic sales of new energy vehicles.
The forecast of the third quarter report of Huayang Group shows that in the first three quarters, it is expected to realize a net profit of 202 million to 212 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 126.18% to 137.37%, mainly due to the company’s automotive electronic smart cockpit business including central control, HUD, wireless charging, Orders for digital instruments have increased significantly. (Securities Times reporter Liu Junling)