Is the new cycle a feast of hard technology?
Recently, withNingde eraThe leading technology stocks staged a wave of major rises. The rare earth index, salt lake lithium extraction index, lithium mining index and other related indexes doubled during the year.Ningde eraThe market value is more thanChina Merchants Bank, Ranked third in the total market value of A shares. At the same time, the traditional blue-chip sector, headed by Maotai in various sectors, has seen rare adjustments. The home appliance sector has fallen nearly 19% during the year. Non-banking finance, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery,real estateAnd many other sector indexes fell more than 10%.
There is a huge divergence in the performance of core assets,”Ningde eraThe “combination” has replaced the “mao combination” and has become the brightest boy in the A-share market.Some organizations pointed out that the current policy trend has shifted to hard technology, and the new round of cycles will be a feast for hard technology. It is recommended that in the direction of high prosperity, continue to explore potential core assets in the future.
Great differentiation of core assets
How bad is the performance of some Mao Index concept stocks this year? Data treasure statistics show thatArowana、Shuanghui Development、Muyuan shares、Sany Heavy IndustryWaiting for the latest price of many stocks to fall more than 40% from the high point during the year,Hengrui Medicine、Midea Group、Luxshare Precision、Luzhou Laojiao、Yili sharesWait for individual stocks to fall by more than 30%. at the same time,Cobos、Amic、North HuachuangWaiting for individual stocks to double their gains during the year.
The analysis found thatThe poor performers are mostly traditional blue chips, while the better performers are technology stocks led by the Ningde era.For a time, including some institutions, the market specifically proposed a “Ningde era portfolio” corresponding to the previous “Mao Index.”
From “Mao Index” to “Ning Portfolio”, what is the logic behind the great divergence of core assets? Essence Securities believes that the core assets represented by the Mao Index have differentiated into three forms, the high-growth long track leader,PerformanceThe long track leader with stable growth and the long track leader with a partial cyclical down cycle. The first type of leading company’s growth is not falsified and the boom continues, so it has a higher tolerance for high valuations; the second type of company has strong valuation constraints and it is difficult to obtain large excess returns; the third type of valuation constraint is even more restrictive Strong, even if there is no high valuation problem, it is difficult to have a better stock price performance, and there is a high probability that you need to wait for the performance cycle to resume.
The comparison found that industry sectors with higher valuations have generally performed better this year, while industry sectors with lower valuations have performed poorly.Like the one with the highest increase during the yearNon-ferrous metals, Electrical equipment, electronics, etc., the price-earnings ratio is also in the forefront. And non-bank financial,real estateIn other sectors, the price-earnings ratio is among the lowest.
The “Ning Group” list is here
In addition to the reasons for the boom in the industry, policies are also biased towards the hard technology sector.Tianfeng SecuritiesIn the mid-term strategy of the A-share market in 2021, the main line of macro policy is anti-monopoly, anti-corruption, suppression of real estate and local government leverage, and increasing residents’ disposable income (reducing education, medical, housing and other necessary living costs); at the same time, it strongly supports high-end The above-mentioned policy context of manufacturing (development strategy emerging industries) all point to one type of asset, namely high-end manufacturing (new energy, semiconductor, military and other sectors).Tianfeng SecuritiesTo put it bluntly, the new cycle is a feast of hard technology.
Soochow Securities pointed out in the strategic topic of the A-share “hard technology” company list that from the perspective of the core technology industries emphasized in the “14th Five-Year Plan”, including advanced manufacturing, energy, materials science, biotechnology,robot, Clean technology, agricultural technology, etc., are not limited to the “hardware technology” we understand daily.
Based on this, Databao sorted out the A-share industry is currently in a high-prosperity, R&D investment and future high-growth technology segment leader in the field of technology, the selection criteria are as follows:
1. In the past three years, the annual R&D expenditure accounted for more than 4%;
2. Ratings of more than 10 institutions and unanimous forecasts for net profit growth this year, next year and 2023 will all exceed 20%;
3. The latest market value is over 20 billion yuan.
According to the above screening, a total of more than 100 stocks entered the list. At the same time, in order to make the sub-sectors of the portfolio more balanced, only one leading stock is selected for each sub-sector. For example, in the lithium battery sector, CATL entered the list.Yiwei Lithium EnergyDid not enter the list; another example is new energy vehicles,BYDTo be on the list,Great Wall MotorWaiting for auto stocks not to enter the list and so on.
After screening, a total of 43 stocks were selected for the Ning Portfolio. From the perspective of market value, there are both lithium battery leader Ningde era with a market value of more than one trillion, and chip segment leaders with a market value of less than tens of billions. From the industry perspective, it mainly includes the electronics industry, electrical equipment industry, computer, medical and biological industries, which fully embodies the technological nature.
High R&D + continuous high growth in net profit
R&D expenditures can also reflect the hard technology attributes of the list.Data shows that nearly half of the stocks accounted for more than 10% of R&D expenditures in the past three years, includingGlodon、North Huachuang、ConvincedAnd other stocks, the average value is more than 20%,Zhongke Chuangda、Ziguang Guowei、Shengbang sharesMore than 10 stocks research and development expenditure accounted for more than 10% of the average.
It can be said that the single stock on the list is the group of A-share companies with the largest R&D investment. From another perspective, the future growth has verified the prosperity of the industry.Judging from the average growth rate of net profit forecast by institutions this year, next year and 2023,Godsend materials、Eston、Tongfu MicroelectronicsThe growth rate of individual stocks exceeds 60%，Sanan Optoelectronics、Kangtai Bio、GlodonThe average growth rate of 9 stocks exceeded 40%.
Northward capitalHeavy warehouse nearly 480 billion
The individual stocks on the list are also the love of Beijing Capital. Data show that Beijing Capital’s total holding of hard technology leaders is close to 480 billion yuan. Specifically,Beishang Capital holds 148 million shares of CATL, and its latest stock market value exceeds 81.1 billion yuan, ranking first;holdLongi shares589 million shares, the latest stock market value of over 54.3 billion.In addition, holdHengrui Medicine、Mindray Medical、WuXi AppTec、Luxshare Precision、Inovance TechnologyBoth exceeded 20 billion yuan.
Most of the stocks have performed well this year, and the number of stocks has frequently hit historical highs. But even so, the funds from the North China still maintained an increase in their holdings, with a total reference amount of nearly 2.5 billion yuan. Among them, 28 stocks have increased their holdings since July.Weir shares、Mindray Medical、Zhuo Shengwei、Kangtai BioAnd other stocks were increased by more than 1 billion yuan.
Individual Nuggets:
“Mao Index” cold “Ning Combination” hot public offering of heavy stocks staged “big move”
Can the “Ning Group” still rise? A month later last year’s stock-based champions dug up “new opportunities”
“Mao Index” lying-to-win strategy fails, “Ning Portfolio” has eye-catching market performance
(Article source: data treasure)
.