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Nomisma Energia, maxi sting on electricity and gas bills coming soon

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MILANO – “The recovery of the European economy encounters a first obstacle in the surge in energy prices, which for Italy brings a sting on electricity and gas bills from 1 July 2021”. He esteems him Davide Tabarelli, president of Nomisma Energia, in view of the quarterly update that willArera (the Regulatory Authority for Energy, Networks and the Environment) in the coming days for tariffs from 1 July. “On the basis of preliminary data it is possible to estimate for electricity a increase around 12% and for gas over 21%, both record leaps never seen in the past “, explains Tabarelli:” this leads us to forecast a sharply accelerating inflation rate in the coming months “.

The estimated increase would translate to the typical family (electricity consumption of 2700 kilowatt hours per year with a committed power of 3 kilowatts) in “an average tariff that reaches 23.3 cents per kilowatt hour, with a higher annual expenditure of 66 euros. For the gas the increase is stronger, with a leap of 21.3% at 89 cents per cubic meter for the typical family (consumption of 1400 cubic meters per year) with a higher expenditure of over 218 euros on an annual basis. Overall – explains Tabarelli – the greatest expenditure will therefore be € 284.5 per typical family on an annual basis and this largely cancels the drops accumulated in 2020 during the pandemic “.

“The final decision – Tabarelli recalls – is expected in the coming days from Arera based on the dynamics of prices on international markets, where a small crisis is in effect caused by the concomitance of supply shortages, consumption recovery and of restrictive environmental policies “. The expert explains that “gas prices have almost doubled compared to last spring when the last adjustment was made, while the heat is pushing electricity prices due to higher consumption for air conditioning and, in part, for economic recovery. There is less production from renewable sources, which pushes precisely the demand for gas from power plants, while supply has problems due to low inventories since last winter and reductions from Russia and Norway. The most bullish push comes from the CO2 prices which reached records of 55 euros per ton, double at the end of 2020, driven by the increasingly stringent commitments of the European Union on cutting greenhouse gas emissions “.

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“In the background, favoring bullish expectations, is the oil price this also returned to $ 75 per barrel, against an average of 42 dollars in 2020, while expectations, also thanks to a very euphoric international finance, are for further increases “, explains Tabarelli, highlighting that all this leads to forecast inflation” in strong acceleration in the coming months due to the of electricity and gas tariffs, to which is added the already ongoing increase in the price of petrol and diesel. A very hot summer promises to be for prices – he concludes -, with inflation rates that will inevitably rise, creating many problems for an over-inflated economy on some financial markets “.

The increase in electricity tariffs weighs on household accounts but also on business costs and makes production more expensive in a difficult time for the country. This is what he underlines Coldiretti commenting on the Nomisma estimates. “The increase in electricity spending has a double negative effect because – underlines Coldiretti – it reduces the purchasing power of citizens and families, but also increases the costs of businesses”.

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