On Wednesday (November 30), international oil prices rose nearly 1%, benefiting from a decline in U.S. crude inventories and a lower dollar. But concerns that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) would keep output unchanged at an upcoming meeting capped gains. NYMEX crude oil is still looking at $81.29.
At 16:10 Beijing time, NYMEX rose 0.75% to $78.79 a barrel; ICE Brent crude futures rose 0.77% to $84.90 a barrel.
According to data released overnight by the American Petroleum Institute (API), as of the week ended November 25, U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 7.85 million barrels far more than expected, gasoline inventories increased by 2.854 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 4.008 million barrels. The official U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory data will be released at 23:30 Beijing time on Wednesday.
A weaker dollar also provided minor support. Investors will be looking for clues on when the central bank will slow down its aggressive pace of rate hikes after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on the economy and the labor market at a Brookings Institution event later in the day.
“Energy markets are not pricing in global economic resilience correctly and this week we could see an upward revision to U.S. third-quarter GDP,” Edward Moya, senior analyst at OANDA, said in a client note. After production stabilized, the oil price rally lost momentum as expectations grew that producers would seriously consider production cuts.”
On the supply side, OPEC+ sources said that OPEC+ may keep its oil production policy unchanged at its meeting over the weekend. Earlier news said that OPEC+ may consider further production cuts to support prices.
On the hourly chart, NYMEX crude oil rose above $78.35, and is expected to further touch $81.29 in the market outlook. They are the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels of the downward range of $93.74-73.60.