NYMEX crude oil short-term look at 72.42 US dollars
International oil prices were slightly under pressure on Friday (May 26), as Russia and Saudi Arabia sent conflicting messages on the supply outlook ahead of the next OPEC+ policy meeting, and weaker-than-expected demand growth also affected market sentiment. Although on the positive side, the scale of OPEC+ supply decline in May is basically in line with the earlier agreement to further reduce production. In the short term, NYMEX crude oil is at $72.42.
At 16:09 Beijing time, NYMEX crude oil futures fell 0.15% to $71.71 a barrel; ICE Brent crude futures fell 0.28% to $75.97 a barrel.
International oil prices fell more than $2/barrel overnight, although they were on track to end higher for the second week in a row. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak played down the possibility that OPEC+ could announce further production cuts at the June meeting, “I don’t think there will be any new measures because just a month ago, as we saw the slow pace of global economic recovery, some The state has made some voluntary decisions to cut production.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin said earlier this week that energy prices were approaching “economically reasonable” levels. This suggests that OPEC+ will not immediately change industrial policy. The Russian comments contrasted sharply with those made this week by Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Abdulaziz Abdul Aziz.
Abdulaziz warned short sellers to “be careful”. Some investors interpreted this as a signal that OPEC+ might consider further production cuts. Saudi Arabia is the de facto leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
There are multiple indications that global demand growth is unlikely to approach earlier forecast levels. “We will see some of these demand figures being cut in the near future and this will continue to weigh on oil market sentiment in the near term,” said Suvro Sakar, chief energy analyst at DBS Bank.
As of last week, exports from OPEC+ producers participating in the latest production cuts were down 1.5 million bpd from their April 25 peak, led by a drop of 400,000 bpd from Russia, JPMorgan analysts said in a note. day. As of May 23, the total exports of OPEC+ oil-producing countries fell by 1.4 million barrels per day month-on-month.
On the hourly chart, NYMEX crude oil has won $71.88 in both long and short positions, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the downward range from $74.73 to $71. If it stands at this price, the market outlook is expected to further touch the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $72.42; otherwise, oil prices are expected to resume their decline and fall below $71.