On Friday (December 30), international oil prices rose slightly, with NYMEX crude oil at $79.76 in the short term. Oil prices were on track for a second straight year of positive gains, but gains were modest. The Ukrainian war has tightened supply, but a stronger dollar and weaker demand have limited gains in oil prices.
At 15:45 Beijing time, NYMEX crude oil futures rose 0.31% to $78.64/barrel; ICE Brent crude futures rose 0.40% to $83.79/barrel.
Leon Li, an analyst at CMC Markets, said that although the increase in holiday travel at the end of the year and Russia’s ban on the sale of crude oil and petroleum products to some countries supported oil prices, the decline in consumption caused by the deteriorating economic environment will offset the impact of tight supply. “Global unemployment is expected to rise rapidly in 2023, which will dampen energy demand. So I think oil prices may fall to $60 next year.”
In the second half of this year, as many central banks around the world sharply raised interest rates to combat inflation, oil prices dropped rapidly. In addition, the new crown epidemic has also weakened demand recovery expectations in the world‘s major oil consumers.
Looking ahead to future supply, Western sanctions will prompt Russia to shift more crude and refined product exports from Europe to Asia. In the United States, production growth in major producing regions has slowed. Inflation, supply chain hurdles and economic uncertainty led executives to cut production forecasts, the latest survey from the Dallas Fed found.
ING analyst Ewa Manthey said: “This year has been an extraordinary year for the commodity market, with supply risks leading to increased volatility and higher prices. Next year will be another year of uncertainty with high volatility.”
On the daily chart, NYMEX crude oil started an upward ((3)) wave trend from US$76.79, and the upper target was at US$79.76. The ((3)) wave is the sub-wave of the upward wave iii that started from $73.40, and the iii wave is the sub-wave of the upward (i) wave that started from $70.08.