On Friday (September 23), international oil prices fell, recession fears and the dollar strengthened. NYMEX crude oil was still at $80.02. Falls were capped by supply concerns stemming from a mobilization from Russia and an apparent stalemate in talks to restart the Iran nuclear deal.
At 16:19 Beijing time, NYMEX crude oil futures fell 1.94% to $81.87 per barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures fell 1.74% to $87.97 per barrel.
Tina Teng, analyst at CMC Markets, said: “The risk of a global recession has overshadowed oil supply concerns after major central banks accelerated rate hikes, despite the recent escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war. However, a sharp decline in U.S. strategic reserves and inventory drawdowns may still be in place for some time. Oil prices have been supported for a while now as the spot market remains inevitably undersupplied and talks to restart the Iran nuclear deal stalled,” she said, referring to the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve last week slumping to its lowest level since 1984.
Markets now clearly understand the Fed’s intentions: Inflation is so high that it will likely take a recession to come down. Following the Federal Reserve, many central banks around the world raised interest rates on Thursday (September 22), sparking fears of a global recession.
“Crude prices remain volatile as energy traders grapple with a deteriorating demand outlook, which remains vulnerable to supply shortages, supply risks and tight market conditions,” Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, said in a note. Should provide some support for oil above $80, but the global recession will keep prices down.”
Efforts to restart the 2015 Iran nuclear deal have stalled because of Tehran’s insistence that an investigation by the United Nations nuclear watchdog be ended, a senior State Department official said. This played down expectations that Iranian crude would return to the international market as soon as possible.
On the daily line, NYMEX crude oil is in a downward iii wave starting from $90.19, and the bottom support looks at the 61.8% target at $80.02. Wave iii is a sub-wave of wave (iii) that started down at $97.66. Wave (iii) is a sub-wave of the descending ((c)) wave that started at $123.68. Wave ((c)) is part of the corrective 4 wave that started at $130.50.