Production and sales in October increased by 1.3 times year-on-year-
New energy vehicles usher in a turning point in marketization
Our reporter Liu Jin
On November 10, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers released data showing that in October, car sales exceeded 2.33 million units, a year-on-year decrease of about 10 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the performance of new energy vehicles was outstanding, and the production and sales volume reached a record high, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times. Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that “this year’s new energy vehicles have ushered in a turning point in marketization.”
Market demand is still strong
Judging from the monthly data, this year, the “golden nine silver ten” of the auto market has become “gold ten silver nine”.
According to data from the China Automobile Association, in October, automobile production and sales reached 2.33 million and 2.33 million, respectively, up 12.2% and 12.8% month-on-month, and down 8.8% and 9.4% year-on-year. From January to October, automobile production and sales were 20.587 million and 20.97 million, an increase of 5.4% and 6.4% year-on-year. The growth rate continued to drop slightly from January to September.
In October, automobile production and sales continued to increase month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline narrowed compared to the previous month. Chen Shihua, deputy secretary general of the China Automobile Association, analyzed that the supply of chips in October was slightly eased compared with September. Although the effective working days of the National Day holiday were relatively reduced, automobile production and sales continued to show signs of recovery, and the overall situation showed signs of improvement.
In October, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 342,000 and 326,000, respectively, up 10.0% and 2.5% month-on-month; they were down 26.9% and 29.7% year-on-year, and the rate of decline was narrower than that in September. According to the analysis of the China Automobile Association, commercial vehicles are affected by the switch of emission regulations, with heavy overdrafts in the early stage, and the superimposed market demand is not expected, which affects the current market to a certain extent.
Regarding the auto market at the end of this year, the China Automobile Association analyzed that “the auto industry will still face chip pressure in the next two months, but it is estimated that the overall market will continue to show cumulative growth throughout the year.”
Regarding the phenomenon of increasing prices and raising cars in the terminal sales market, Xu Haidong said that there is indeed such a problem, mainly because the shortage of chips leads to insufficient supply. The phenomenon of self-owned brands increasing prices and raising cars is not much, and joint ventures and imported cars are relatively obvious. In fact, the OEMs did not raise prices, and the behavior of raising prices was mainly the behavior of individual dealers. He believes that the price increase will have a certain impact on the entire brand.
The rapid growth of new energy vehicles
The growth rate of new energy vehicles is even more obvious. In October, the overall new energy vehicle market continued its good performance, with production and sales hitting a record high, reaching 397,000 and 383,000 respectively, representing an increase of 12.5% and 7.2% from the previous month, and an increase of 1.3 times year-on-year.
Among the main types of new energy vehicles, the production and sales of pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles maintained growth compared with the previous month; compared with the same period last year, the production and sales of pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles continued to increase rapidly.
The new car-making forces have done well. On November 10, at the third quarter 2021 financial report conference of Weilai Automobile, Li Bin, chairman of Weilai Automobile, stated that Weilai delivered a total of 24,439 vehicles in the third quarter of 2021, a year-on-year increase of 100.2%. New orders in October hit a record high. The current delivery volume is mainly affected by supply fluctuations. It is expected that the total delivery volume in the fourth quarter of 2021 will reach 23,500 to 25,500 vehicles.
Xiaopeng Motors has overcome the challenge of industry-specific chip supply shortages and delivered more than 10,000 units for two consecutive months. The total delivery volume in October increased by 233% year-on-year. As of the end of October this year, the historical cumulative delivery volume of Xiaopeng Motors has exceeded 100,000.
Chen Shihua analyzed that the growth of new energy vehicles is not only due to the continuous improvement of product strength and cost performance, but also the recognition of the consumer market. Now not only users in big cities buy new energy vehicles, but small and medium cities and even rural areas also recognize new energy vehicles. Originally, car buyers were around 30 years old, and now the consumer group is younger and more accepting of new things.
“Since this year, whether it is an auto show or a press conference, few car companies have released traditional cars. They have basically released new energy products. New energy vehicles have become a climate.” Chen Shihua said.
Xu Haidong said that this year will be a historical turning point for new energy vehicles to shift from policy-driven to market-driven.
Up to now, the penetration rate of my country’s new energy vehicle market has reached a record high of 16%. Driven by new energy vehicles, my country’s automobile exports have once again set new historical records. In October, my country’s auto export volume reached 230,000, an increase of 1.1 times year-on-year.
In this regard, Xu Haidong analyzed that there is market demand overseas, and our products can also compete with foreign brands. Establishing the brand of Chinese cars through the export of new energy vehicles, it is expected that the export of new energy vehicles will maintain a rapid growth next year.
From the perspective of product structure, at present, mini cars and small cars represented by Wuling Hongguang MINI, namely A00-class cars and A0-class cars, and medium-sized cars represented by Tesla and Weilai, namely B-class cars, have become new The main sales force of energy vehicles, compact cars between 150,000 yuan and 200,000 yuan, that is, A-class cars, still lacks ace models.
Expert analysis believes that A-class cars not only need long-distance battery life, but also have a relatively high cost performance, which is very difficult for auto manufacturers, and it is the same in foreign countries. This is also the main reason why there is no major explosion in sales of A-class new energy vehicles.
“I hope that there are some improvements similar to the blade battery, which will reduce the cost of the battery, so that the A-class car can better meet the needs of consumers in terms of cost and performance. This should also be the future direction.” Xu Haidong said.
Self-owned brand market reversal
It is worth noting that in October, the market share of Chinese brand passenger vehicles showed an increase again. In October, the sales of Chinese brand passenger vehicles reached 952,000, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, and the market share increased by 6.2 percentage points to 47.5%.
From the cumulative data point of view, from January to October, the sales of Chinese brand passenger vehicles were 7.387 million, a year-on-year increase of 28.1%, and the market share rose to 43.8%. Although it has not yet returned to the all-time high of 51%, the growing share of independent brands is undoubtedly exciting.
In fact, this is also the first time since the decline in auto production and sales in 2018, a self-owned brand is expected to achieve a rebound in both total sales and market share for the year. Chen Shihua said that the market share of self-owned brand passenger vehicles continued to rise in October, mainly due to the fact that self-owned brand enterprises faced greater pressure in the industry this year, their strategies have become more flexible, product development has increased, and new energy vehicles have brought about The new automobile forces are developing well.
This round of self-owned brands rebounded in the market with high gold content. Statistics show that since the beginning of this year, three to five models of self-owned A-class cars have often entered the top ten monthly sales rankings. In the past, it was normal for the top ten to not see a self-owned brand product.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Joint Council, told reporters that the contribution rate of new energy vehicles to the market is getting higher and higher, which is an absolute market increase, and independent brands account for 80% of sales.
“In the fourth quarter, self-owned brands will continue to maintain a rebound momentum.” Cui Dongshu predicts that this round of self-owned brands will continue to rebound.
Cui Dongshu believes that independent brands have obvious advantages in electrification and intelligence technology, which will directly translate into advantages in product competitiveness. It is not so much a rebound as a reversal. A market reversal means that the market share of independent brands will cross the 50% threshold and occupy 60% or even higher market share in the future.
Chen Shihua expressed confidence in the future market share, and the proportion of independent brands can be further increased. New energy vehicles are a new track, and the top several independent brands are sufficiently competitive, and new forces in vehicle manufacturing will continue to exert their strength.
He also reminded that self-owned brand companies have changed relatively early in new energy. Since this year, foreign joint ventures are also pushing new energy vehicle products, which will put a lot of pressure on self-owned brands. Take the product supply chain as an example. All companies are working on the industrial chain. Foreign-funded companies have relatively more advantages in global procurement. Independent brands should focus on doing some work at the level of secondary and tertiary suppliers to ensure supply. Chain security.