The National Grain and Oil Information Center reported on July 28: Last week, domestic soybean crush rebounded to 1.88 million tons. Soybean oil output increased. Downstream companies’ delivery speed was still slow, and soybean oil stocks increased. Monitoring showed that on July 26, the country’s main oil plants had a soy oil inventory of 920,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons on a week-on-week basis, an increase of 70,000 tons on a month-on-month basis, a year-on-year decrease of 330,000 tons, and a decrease of 510,000 tons from the average of the same period in the past three years. In the near future, domestic soybean arrivals are still relatively large. Soybean crushing capacity of oil plants is expected to remain at a relatively high level. Soybean oil stocks are expected to maintain an upward trend.
This week, domestic soybean oil prices continued to fluctuate higher and are close to the previous high of 9,278 yuan/ton set in May. Due to the lower than expected sown area of U.S. soybeans and the dry weather in the production area, the good rate of soybeans has declined, supporting U.S. soybeans and U.S. soybean oil prices; Canadian rapeseed production areas are more severely arid, and the output is expected to be significantly reduced, supporting the high price of rapeseed; affected by the epidemic and Due to the rainfall and weather, Malaysia’s palm oil production growth rate was not as expected. In addition, due to the impact of India’s tariff cut, palm oil exports improved and inventories were low, supporting the main contract price of Malaysian palm oil to hit a record high. The global oil supply is still tight, providing bottom support for oil prices, but after recent price increases, the momentum to continue to rise is limited; domestic soybean oil supply is relatively sufficient, and demand lacks bright spots. It is expected that short-term soybean oil prices will fluctuate following the high level of the external market.
On July 27, DCE soybean oil futures prices rose sharply, among which the main contract closed up 2.1% to 9,156 yuan/ton, and the first-level soybean oil market in coastal areas was quoted at 9440-9500 yuan/ton, an increase of 200-230 yuan from the previous day. /Ton. Among them, the North China area offers 9460-9500 yuan/ton, the East China area offers 9440-9480 yuan/ton, and the South China offers 9460-9480 yuan/ton. Soybean oil prices have maintained a strong trend recently, downstream buyers are more enthusiastic about purchasing, and transactions have improved slightly.
This week, the price of foreign oils and fats has declined, and the price of domestic oils and fats has fluctuated upward. On July 27, South America’s August shipment import soybean oil CNF price was US$1,323/ton, a week-on-week decrease of US$7/ton, equivalent to 10285 yuan/ton in port duty-paid cost, which was 1130 yuan/ton higher than the 2109 soybean oil futures price. Weekly reduction of 150 yuan/ton; Canada’s October shipping schedule vegetable oil import CNF quoted price of 1,525 US dollars/ton, a week-on-week drop of 55 US dollars/ton, which is equivalent to 11,840 yuan/ton in port duty-paid costs, which is 1,415 yuan/ton higher than the 2201 vegetable oil futures price. This is a decrease of 80 yuan/ton from last week.
This week, the domestic soybean oil price trend was significantly stronger than that of vegetable oil, and the price difference between soybean oil and vegetable oil narrowed. On July 27, the September contract price difference of soybean rape oil was 1326 yuan/ton, which was reduced by 397 yuan/ton on a week-on-week basis, and 499 yuan/ton on a month-on-month basis, and 1063 yuan/ton year-on-year; the January contract price difference was 1535 yuan/ton. The week-on-week decrease was 339 yuan/ton. The spot price difference of soybean oil in the coastal areas of East China was 970 yuan/ton, which was reduced by 530 yuan/ton on a week-on-month basis, 340 yuan/ton on a month-on-month basis, and 1410 yuan/ton year-on-year.
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