The International Monetary Fund revises upwards the estimates of Italy’s GDP for 2021 but at the same time expects a deficit-GDP ratio at record levels.
After 9.5% in 2020, the IMF predicts in its World Economic Outlook a deficit of 10.2%, never reached before in the history of Italy.
The deficit is expected to decrease from 2022, reaching 4.7%, up to 2.4% in 2026.
Worrying outlook also for Italy’s debt-GDP, also for 2021, expected after 155.8% in 2020, down to just 154.8% of GDP in 2021.
According to the Fund, the debt-GDP should then fall in 2022, remaining above 150%, to 150.4%, and then fall below the threshold of 150%, but at a still very high level, equal to 146.5% of GDP, only in 2026.
The estimates of the Italian public accounts of the IMF are more pessimistic than those contained in the NaDef of the Draghi government.
In the NaDef, the 2021 deficit-GDP is in fact expected to be below the 10% threshold, at 9.4 per cent of GDP, against a GDP-debt forecast to decline at a lower level than that estimated by the Fund. , or 153.5 per cent.