Operators’ optimism strengthened again after last month’s slight decline. This is what emerges from the July survey conducted by Assiom Forex among its associates in collaboration with Il Sole 24 Ore. In fact, the percentage of those expecting new earnings for the stock markets (earnings that for 5% will be very substantial) goes back to 66% from 64% in June, while the representation of those who see the possibility drops significantly from 14% to 6%. of a bearish phase. Consequently, the sample of those expecting stable markets rose to 28% from 22% last month. “The good moment that Italy is going through both at an economic level and in terms of image recovery in many sectors has certainly helped our” internal confidence index “- explains the president of Assiom Forex Massimo Mocio – and it is not surprising to see an increase in optimists among the operators interviewed. In addition to this aspect, on a more technical level, the robust growth in profits highlighted by the excellent quarterly results and the still moderate tone of the main central banks have certainly helped to blow in the right direction and generate further confidence and hope that over the next six months Stock exchanges can score further gains.
Exchange rates: 64% operators focus on euro / dollar stability with a strengthening recovery
After settling back below $ 1.20 over the past few weeks, the relationship between the euro and the US currency should remain substantially stable over the next few months. According to 64% of operators, in fact, the cross / euro dollar should remain at current levels, a scenario expected a month ago by 53% of those who took part in the survey. A further sample of 18% (formerly 24%) instead expects a new strengthening (which for 3% will be strong) while on the opposite front a percentage identity of 18% puts a weakening of the common currency in anticipation. “The euro / dollar exchange rate is benefiting from the positive economic surprises of the Euro area – explains Mocio – It is expected that robust growth in the euro area will continue in the coming quarters, although there is a persistent risk that the ongoing spread of the Delta variant could further delay the recovery. The economic recovery forecasts lead the majority of respondents to predict that the single currency will not be able to retreat from current levels. Furthermore, we must consider the Next Generation Eu factor, which promises to be crucial for the push to EU countries and which is about to arrive with the first disbursements “.
Spread: 97% traders see it below 150 pt in the next few months
The forecast for the spread between 10 BTPs and Bunds of a similar duration in the coming months does not show great variations compared to the previous month. Overall, in fact, 97% of operators, the same percentage as a month ago, believe that the differential will remain below the threshold of 150 points but the weight of the components changes slightly: in fact, the sample rises to 28% from 22% in June. of those who see the spread drop between 50 and 100 points (today it opened at 104) while the percentage of those who believe that it will remain between 100 and 150 points drops to 69% from 75%. Finally, the percentage of those who believe a jump in the range between 150 and 200 points remains unchanged at 3%. According to Assiom Forex experts, the ECB’s commitment to ensure long-lasting very favorable financing conditions will sustain the spread market and, on the other, the strong recovery trend of the European economy.