Economic Observation Network reporter Zou Yongqin “Global stock markets soared during the Spring Festival holiday. The A50 futures index has five consecutive positives, and the Hong Kong stock market has two consecutive positives. After the holiday, A shares will be on fire!” On January 28, Weibo certified as the chairman of Shenzhen Orient Harbor Investment Management Co., Ltd. Bin sent the above Weibo.
In the evening, Li Daxiao from Yingda Securities also posted on Weibo, saying that during the Spring Festival, the external stock market rose sharply, of which the Nasdaq Index rose by 4.32%, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 2.92%. After the stock festival, it is expected to welcome a big red envelope.
Overseas markets are generally rising, and Chinese assets are favored
As described by Li Daxiao and others, during the A-share Spring Festival holiday, overseas financial markets generally went up. Contact data Datayes! Statistics show that from January 23 to January 27 (Monday to Friday), the Nasdaq Index, the Korea Composite Index, the Nikkei 225 Index, the FTSE Singapore Straits Index and the S&P 500 all rose sharply and recorded a record high. an increase of more than 2%.
During the period, the performance of indexes related to Chinese assets was particularly eye-catching. The constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Technology Index, which includes Tencent Holdings, Alibaba and other Internet giants, only had two trading days during the A-share Spring Festival holiday, but it recorded a rise of up to 5.35%, of which January 26 rose 4.26%. %, it continued to rise by 1.04% on January 27.
As for the FTSE China A50 Index Futures, which traded normally during the Spring Festival holiday, its main continuous contract has experienced a strong upward trend for five consecutive days from January 23 to January 27, with a cumulative increase of 2.98%. Its 14,445 points refreshed on January 27 set a new high for the index futures in more than half a year.
In addition, the Nasdaq China Technology Stock Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index all recorded impressive gains. Behind the explosion of the above-mentioned index, world-renowned financial investment institutions led by JPMorgan Chase have increased their holdings of Chinese assets.
According to a document disclosed by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on January 26: On January 18, JPMorgan Chase’s H shareholding in China Innovation Aviation (03931.HK) increased from 0.86% to 7.62%. Previously, the agency had increased its holdings of 40.47 million shares of Meituan (03690.HK), involving a capital of approximately HK$7.7 billion.
In addition, reports that FMR LLC, a subsidiary of Fidelity Investments, increased its holdings in Zai Lab, and Euro Pacific Growth Fund increased its holdings in Midea Group have appeared in the newspapers.
Soochow Securities released a research report on January 27, pointing out that the overseas markets during the Spring Festival in 2023 seem to be infected by the domestic festive atmosphere, and the major stock market “rabbits” are advancing by leaps and bounds. Among them, being long China may be the hottest transaction in the overseas market at present; “From the index we constructed, the sentiment of foreign capital being long China continues to rise after breaking through the neutral range; from the perspective of cross-border capital flows, foreign capital holdings Sentiment on China’s equity assets spiked significantly around the Spring Festival.”
In this regard, Zhao Yuanyuan, vice president of Jianhong Times Asset Management Co., Ltd., a well-known private equity firm, said in an interview with reporters on January 29 that due to the recent (especially during the Spring Festival) China’s economic data have shown good resilience, especially in consumption. In this regard, “I think this is an important reason why foreign capital is investing heavily in Chinese assets.”
A-share red envelope market can be expected after the festival
Since my country’s Spring Festival has always had a tradition of giving out red envelopes, whether A-shares can go up after the festival is often called the red envelope market by the market. Then, with the recent general rise in overseas markets, especially the extra favor of Chinese assets, can it promote the A-share market to get off to a good start after the festival?
In this regard, Li Daxiao pointed out on Weibo that in the 20 years from 2003 to 2022, there is a high probability that A shares will rise after the Spring Festival. In the 5 trading days after the Spring Festival, 16 of the 20 years rose. It is estimated that the Spring Festival of the Year of the Rabbit in 2023 will be no exception, and it may already be a certainty. He also emphasized that the epidemic situation during the Spring Festival of the Year of the Rabbit has slowed down significantly. During the Spring Festival, people are very happy and happy. The number of tourists traveling during the Spring Festival reached 308 million, a year-on-year increase of 23%. This is the biggest good news and promotes a good start after the festival.
Dan Bin, a well-known private equity fund manager, said on Weibo that the global stock market rose sharply during the Spring Festival holiday. The A50 futures index had 5 consecutive positives, and Hong Kong stocks had 2 consecutive positives. After the holiday, A shares will be on fire!
Professional investor Huang Yang also pointed out to reporters that from historical statistics, whether there is a red envelope market after the A-share festival is more related to the trend of Hong Kong stocks during the festival, especially the Hang Seng Red Chip Index (HSCCI); ” After all, the constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Red Chip Index are closely related to mainland assets, and their movements during the A-share market break during the Spring Festival basically established the rise and fall of A-shares after the opening.”
Contact data Datayes! Statistics show that in the past 5 years (2018 to 2022), the probability of a red envelope market after the A-share festival is as high as 80%. Among them, the rise and fall of A-shares on the first day after the Spring Festival from 2018 to 2022 are 2.17% and 1.36% respectively. , -7.72%, 0.55%, 2.03%; the rise and fall of the week after the Spring Festival were 2.81%, 2.45%, -3.38%, 1.12%, 3.02%.
It is worth noting that during the A-share Spring Festival holiday period from 2018 to 2022, the rise and fall of the Hang Seng Red Chip Index were 3.28%, -0.79%, -7.30%, 3.59% and 3.15%, except for a slight deviation in 2019 In addition, the remaining four years can predict the red envelope market after the A-share holiday in advance, with a correlation of 80%.
Zhao Yuanyuan also has her views on the trend of the A-share market after the festival. She told reporters that compared with Europe and the United States, China‘s economy is far superior in terms of recovery and future development prospects, and the situation is obviously better. “So I am definitely more confident in the post-holiday market. Of course, as far as the short-term market is concerned one or two days after the holiday, it is possible to actually break out of the pattern of opening higher and fluctuating or even going flat. This requires psychological preparation, but it will not hinder the long-term continued optimism.”
She suggested that in terms of industry configuration, in addition to increasing positions in the consumer sector on dips, she also suggested focusing on advanced manufacturing, digital economy, industrial informatization, and photovoltaic downstream/auxiliary materials related to policies before the two sessions.
And Soochow Securities emphasized in the research report that behind the long China transaction is the expectation of the strong recovery of the Chinese economy; “For the domestic market, the fundamentals are still in their own hands. Sexual shocks may make A-shares perform better than Hong Kong stocks. The recovery after the epidemic and the gradual promotion of loose credit are the confidence of China‘s economy and assets, and the Chinese market will be more stable than other markets. However, in comparison, the Hong Kong stock market It is more susceptible to the impact of overseas liquidity, so when the US dollar and US bond yields rebound, A shares, which have been relatively lagging before, will gradually catch up with Hong Kong stocks.”
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