The second lithium concentrate auction of P ore this year ended at US$5,955/ton FOB.Financial Associated Press reporters from multipleanalystIt is learned that the market is generally optimistic about the performance of lithium salts in June. And before that,Tianqi Lithium Industry(002466.SZ) Equity profit exceeded expectations and was revised up by the capital marketperformance、China Mining Resources(002738.SZ) The intensity of developing lithium resources was also “unexpected”.
Lithium salt may increase in June
On May 24, the Australian lithium miner Pilbara (P Mine) released the second auction result of the year. The auction price was US$5,955/ton FOB, a total of 5,000 tons (+-10%), and the grade benchmark was 5.5%.If the freight is US$90/ton as an example, it can be calculated according to the cost formula of[(5955+90)*6/5.5*8*1.13*6.66+30000]which is equivalent toBatteryThe cost of grade lithium carbonate is about 427,000 yuan / ton.
according toShanghai Steel UnionRelease data shows that as of May 24,BatteryThe average market price of grade lithium carbonate is 470,000 yuan / ton, which has been sideways for a long time after the correction from the high of 500,000 yuan / ton. For the current sideways reasons, Xinyu Consulting researcher Zhang Jinhui believes that the main reason is that the market demand for lithium batteries has not come up, but the price of lithium salts is supported by costs, so it maintains a sideways state.
Shanghai Steel Unionnew energyLuo Xiaoli, an analyst at the lithium mine of the business unit, told the Financial Associated Press that since the last auction, the atmosphere of finding goods in the downstream market has gradually improved, and the market has increased purchases of low-priced resources. Its further analysis shows that the transaction prices of manufacturers in the spot market are mostly maintained at around 460,000-470,000 yuan / ton, and the prices of the goods in the hands of traders are less than 430,000 yuan / ton. .
As for the inventory situation of lithium salt factories, “the lithium salt factories of the ore method basically have no inventory at this stage, and some enterprises in Qinghai have inventory, more of which is a corporate strategy. Activity has increased significantly, lithium iron phosphate companies have heated up inquiries and mining, and traders and lithium iron companies are more tolerant of the current spot price.”Shanghai Steel Unionnew energyQu Yinfei, a lithium analyst at the division, said.
Although the second quarter was affected by force majeure factors,new energyBoth the auto industry and the digital market are in a downturn, but the market is generally optimistic about the performance of lithium salts in June. Qu Yinfei believes that, based on the price point in June, the spot market is expected to increase in June as demand increases and the market atmosphere guides.
Zhang Jinhui analyzed from the perspective of downstream willingness. Supported by the auction cost, the market outlook price will remain high in the range of 450,000-500,000, and if it is too high, it will exceedBatteryThe cost acceptance range of the factory.Looking forward to June, Luo Xiaoli believes that the two major lithium carbonatemain forceThe operating rate of downstream lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials will continue to rise slightly. Under the support of cost and demand, the lithium carbonate market may increase steadily.
A reporter from the Financial Associated Press noticed that in the recent package of measures to stabilize the economy, in terms of automobiles, including promoting consumption and effective investment, the purchase tax of some passenger cars will be reduced by 60 billion yuan in stages.HuachuangsecuritiesWang Baoqing believes that in the short term, the downstream will fully resume production and work, and the start-up will continue to increase month-on-month to increase lithium demand, and lithium prices will continue to rise. In the medium term, due to the overall excess vehicle cost pressure in other links and the expected introduction of support policies, the sales of electric vehicles may be better than expected, and lithium prices may continue to rise.
Lithium resource factories exceed expectations
Early stageTianqi Lithium Industryannouncementthe shareholding company SQM achieved in the first quarternet profit796 million US dollars, the company holds a total of 23.02% of its shares, because the SQM performance exceeds the forecast data in the company’s first quarter report, it is predicted that the company’s net profit in the first half of 2022 will increase by about 620 million yuan.
Affected by this, there arebrokerageAnalysts are revised upTianqi Lithium IndustryQ2 and full yearprofit predictionTianqi’s Q2 performance is expected to be 5.414 billion yuan (Talison 585 million yuan + SQM 2.037 billion yuan + lithium salt 2.792 billion yuan), and Tianqi’s annual performance will reach 20.054 billion yuan (Talison 3.683 billion yuan + SQM 5.696 billion yuan) + Lithium salt 10.675 billion yuan).
And yesterday,China Mining ResourcesAnnouncement, the total amount of funds raised by the proposed non-public offering of shares does not exceed 3 billion yuan. After deducting the issuance costs, the net amount of funds raised is planned to be invested in the Chunpeng Lithium Industry’s 35,000-ton high-purity lithium salt project and Zimbabwe’s Bikita Lithium Mine 2 million t/ a Construction project, 1.2 million t/a reconstruction and expansion project of Bikita Lithium Mine in Zimbabwe and supplementary working capital.
Among them, the total construction period of Chunpeng Lithium Industry’s 35,000-ton high-purity lithium salt project is expected to be 18 months, and it is expected to be put into operation before the end of 2023; Bikita Lithium Mine 2 million t/a construction project, 1.2 million t/a reconstruction and expansion project The total construction period is expected to be 12 months.
Some analysts believe that thisChina Mining ResourcesThe production expansion exceeded expectations. Bikita’s 3.2 million-ton lithium ore project corresponds to about 54,000 tons of lithium carbonate, exceeding the previous expectation of 2.7 million tons. In addition, Tanco’s 600,000 tons of expanded lithium ore corresponds to 12,000 tons of lithium carbonate, and the company’s lithium resources are expected to reach 100% self-sufficiency rate, exceeding the previous expectation of 80%.
From Snowway Mining’s auction price being accused of “killing red eyes”, SQM’s performance exceeding expectations, to China Mining Resources’ expansion exceeding expectations, to the second auction of P Mine this year, which reached a new high, showing that under the background of high lithium salt prices, the industry The chain’s expectations for lithium resources have risen instead of falling.
Northeast SecuritiesAnalyst Zeng Zhiqin recentlyResearch reportIt is pointed out that lithium resources may be a key factor in determining the final pattern of the industry, and the scarcity of lithium resources has become an industry consensus, opening up the imagination space for lithium prices.
(Article source: Financial Associated Press)