Piazza Affari in moderate recovery today after the underperformance of the last few days dictated by the government crisis that resulted in the fall of the Draghi government with the dissolution of the Chambers and early elections scheduled for 25 September. In the aftermath of the ECB, investors focused on the results from the PMI indices, with the composite index of the eurozone slipping into contraction territory; indications that have exacerbated fears of an imminent recession and investors have rushed to buy bunds and even BTPs. Few ideas instead from the learning season with numbers below Twitter’s expectations. Overseas we are already looking at the Fed next Wednesday and at the Big Tech numbers coming up next week, in particular those of Apple and Amazon.
The closing Ftse Mib marks + 0.07% at 21.211 points. On the Piazza Affari parterre, the weakness of Unicredit (-2.35%) and Intesa Sanpaolo (-0.18%), among the securities most penalized by the fall of the Draghi government and the consequent jump in the BTP / Bund spread ( which this morning opened in 325 bp area). Poste, on the other hand, is recovering, closing at + 1.33%. Among the best also Inwit (+ 2.39%) after the Council of Ministers approved the exercise of special powers, in the form of prescriptions, in relation to the acquisition, by the Luxembourg company Impulse (Ardian), through Daphne3 (controlled by Telecom Italia), of an investment in the share capital of Inwit from TIM. “We do not expect it to be a block to the transaction for the transfer of control of Daphne3 from TIM to Ardian, whose closing is expected in July”, say Equita analysts.
Another session no for TIM (-2.04% to 0.2158 euro) with Moody’s which downgraded the ratings on the largest Italian telecommunications. The rating agency explains how the downgrade reflects the expectation that its leverage will remain high and its cash flow will remain negative over the next 2-3 years, due to the highly competitive market conditions in Italy and the high demands of investment, combined with the expected macroeconomic slowdown. Meanwhile, press rumors see Vivendi, Tim’s reference shareholder with 24%, raise the valuation of the network in the area of 31-34 billion, well above both the estimates by analysts (17-21 billion) and that of Tim’s independent advisors (25 billion). The risk now is that the times for the arrival of the single network will lengthen also in the light of the government crisis.