Source: CSI Futures Author: CSI Futures
The text of the research report
From a fundamental point of view, the supply side, the wire drawing output rate of the supply side has slightly recovered to 24%, which is at a low level, and there is a certain structural support; on the demand side, in terms of coal chemical auctions, the number of unsold auctions has increased, and the wire drawing transactions have been 46%; With the relaxation of power curtailment and the improvement of new orders, the operating rate of downstream enterprises has rebounded.
In general, the U.S. crude oil strategic reserve inventory has declined, and European energy concerns are still worrying, crude oil has stabilized and rebounded, and the market has certain expectations for the gold, nine, silver, and ten peak seasons. There is still support for polypropylene in the short term, but the macro and financial attributes in the medium and long term are still implemented. Pressure on oil prices, and the release of long-term new production capacity, the pressure on polypropylene is still relatively large, and the medium and long-term polypropylene is still under pressure.
Spot quotation, East China 2690-2760 (-10/-40), Jiangsu 2690-2730 (-10/-20), Guangdong 2685-2710 (0/0), Shandong Lunan 2800-2800 (0/0), Inner Mongolia 2480-2560 (-10/0), CFR China (all sources) 260-323 (-5/-5), CFR China (specific sources) 320-323 (0/-5).
From a fundamental point of view, in the mainland, coal-head methanol has gradually resumed production, and the lowest point of non-integrated construction has been passed, and the negative is gradually increased. However, the overall construction level is still low at present, and prices in Inner Mongolia have risen more this week.
In terms of ports, the inventory of Zhuochuang Port last week was 935,000 tons (-4.5), and the staged closure of shipping will have an impact on the pickup and unloading of East China ports. It is expected that from September 9 to September 25, the number of imported cargoes from coastal areas will reach 57. 10,000 tons, the pressure on arrival at the port has eased slightly.
The operating rate of the external disk has risen to a high level. Iran’s Busher, Marjan, and kimiya are operating, kaveh and Sabalan are still shut down for maintenance, and the restart is to be determined. With the increase in the start of construction in Iran, the tightest period of external disk supply has passed, and we will pay attention to the rhythm of the subsequent recovery in Hong Kong.
In terms of demand, MTO has recently recovered intensively. After Xingxing MTO restarted on 9.4, Luxi MTO restarted on 9.12, Chengzhi Phase I MTO is still waiting to resume work.
In summary, the recent start of construction in the Mainland and Iran has gradually picked up, and there is an expected increase in supply in the follow-up, but the downstream MTO has recovered intensively, and the restart will bring about an increase in demand; macroscopically, the US inflation data in August exceeded expectations, triggering a strong interest rate meeting in September. Expectations of interest rate hikes will suppress commodities to a certain extent, and methanol is expected to fluctuate in the near future.
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