Home » Pork prices have fallen by more than 60% this year, five major pig farmers have a pre-loss of at least 17 billion in the third quarter

Pork prices have fallen by more than 60% this year, five major pig farmers have a pre-loss of at least 17 billion in the third quarter

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Original title: 15th Floor Finance | Pork prices fell by more than 60% this year, 5 major pig farmers have a pre-loss at least 17 billion in the third quarter

For two days in a row, five major pig farmers announced their dismal performance in the third quarter. According to market analysis, the pig industry suffered a full loss in the third quarter.

October 15th,Wen’s sharesAccording to the announcement, the third quarter is expected to lose RMB 6.75 billion to RMB 7.25 billion, with a profit of RMB 4.088 billion in the same period last year, making it the largest loss-making pig farmer.

  5 listed companies are expected to lose at least 17 billion

On the evening of October 14, a number of listed pig raising companies disclosed their performance forecasts and directly staged the “Miscellaneous” contest.

Industry leader in the third quarter-“Piggrass”Muyuan sharesEstimated loss of 500 million yuan to 1 billion yuan;Zhengbang TechnologyPre-loss 5.52 billion yuan-6.52 billion yuan;new HopePre-loss 2.58 billion yuan-29.8 billion yuan;Tianbang sharesThe pre-loss is 2.05 billion -22.5 billion yuan.

Even with the lowest predicted value, the losses of the five listed pig raising companies reached 17 billion.

According to data from China Pig.com, since the high of 36.94 yuan/kg in early January this year, the price of live pigs (external three yuan) has continued to fall. The month fell below the industry-wide cost line.

So, when will the price of live pigs bottom out in this cycle? How will future price trends work?

Even Muyuan, which has the lowest breeding cost, failed to maintain the dignity of “Pigweed” and fell into a single-season loss. The tragic situation of the pig industry can be imagined.

Muyuan shares announced that the company’s net profit loss in the third quarter was 500 million yuan to 1 billion yuan, compared with a profit of 10.204 billion yuan in the same period last year; in the first three quarters of 2021, the company expects a profit of 8.5 billion yuan to 9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.12% – 59.50%. Muyuan said that during the reporting period, the company’s live pig production volume increased significantly compared with the same period last year. However, due to the gradual recovery of domestic live pig production capacity, the price of live pigs in the first three quarters of 2021 was significantly lower than that of the same period last year, resulting in the company’s operating performance in the first three quarters of 2021 compared with the same period last year. Significantly decreased.

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According to the live pig sales briefing data previously disclosed by Muyuan, the sales price of commercial pigs in July, August and September were 15.04 yuan/kg, 13.92 yuan/kg, 11.49 yuan/kg, and the company’s full cost of commercial pigs was 15 yuan/kg. Around RMB/kg, which means that Muyuan started to lose money in August and September.

In comparison, the breeding costs of companies such as New Hope, Zhengbang Technology, and Wen’s Co., Ltd. are much higher than those of Muyuan Co., Ltd. The market predicts that the breeding costs of the first few companies will be between 20 yuan/kg and 23 yuan/kg. Therefore, these companies have already recorded huge losses in the first half of the year.

  Pork prices have plummeted by more than 60% this year

According to data from China Pig.com, since the high point of 36.94 yuan/kg in early January this year, the price of live pigs (external three yuan) has continued to fall, and in June it fell below the industry-wide cost line (16-18 yuan/kg). After a slight rebound in July, it turned down again from August to September. On October 6th, it reached a new low of 10.63 yuan/kg. The price rebounded slightly in the past week. The latest price is 12.59 yuan/kg, which is higher than the January high. A decrease of 65.9%.

Huachuang Securities pointed out that in terms of selling prices, according to the seven companies that disclosed data, the arithmetic average price of pigs sold in September was 11.91 yuan/kg, a decrease of 15.67% from the previous month. The prices of pigs in various pig companies were significantly lower than those of the complete breeding. Costs are in a deep state of loss. Most companies have adopted the strategy of reducing their slaughter weight to reduce their losses. In September, except for Wen’s and Muyuan, the slaughter weights of the other listed pig companies showed a month-on-month decline. The price of pigs has dropped significantly faster than the cost optimization. Even the leading breeder with the best cost has already faced significant losses in September. According to preliminary estimates, the pig breeding sector may suffer a record loss in the third quarter.

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  Cycle turning point has not yet arrived

Regarding the question of when the price of live pigs will bottom out, professionals believe that the turning point of the cycle has not yet arrived.

Analysts pointed out that the loss of the entire pig industry has lasted for several months, and the current farmers are facing a loss of hundreds to nearly 1,000 yuan per pig. However, there is a good sign that under the stimulus of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs to regulate the production of live pigs and the start of the second round of live pig procurement and storage during the year, live pig prices have rebounded for many days, rising by 18% in eight days.The Pacific OceanAccording to securities, the pig price is expected to continue to stabilize and rise due to the influence of factors such as the autumn and winter and the double-season pork consumption peak season.

  Tianfeng SecuritiesIt is pointed out that at present, the number of breeding sows is still too large, and the reduction of production capacity is not obvious. According to the data from Yongyi, although the data on the stock of reproductive sows in June, July and August all showed a month-on-month decline, the overall decline was relatively low. In the past few months, the low-efficiency ternary reproductive sows and some reproductive sows with high gestational age have been eliminated. Judging from the current price of live pigs, the price continues to fall. If the price continues to remain low in the future, it may cause some farms (households) to accelerate the elimination of breeding sows, thus laying a certain theory for the price reversal in the middle of next year. Base.

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Regarding the judgment of price trends, Tianfeng Securities believes that there are two main indicators that need to be paid attention to: 1) Short-term pig prices need to pay attention to industry pressure. At present, the slaughter weight of live pigs is still heavier than the normal weight, which leads to an increase in the supply of pork with the same slaughter volume, but the demand is basically constant, which eventually makes the price continue to fall; 2) The price of pigs in the medium and long term should pay attention to breeding sows. Changes in inventory. Since the price of pigs is still determined by the relationship between supply and demand in the medium and long term, it is believed that paying attention to the changes in the number of breeding sows is more conducive to predicting the changes in live pig prices in time or even in advance.

Text/Beijing Youth Daily reporter Liu Shenliang

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Editor in charge: Li Moxuan

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