Source: CCB Futures Author: CCB Futures
The text of the research report
1. Market review and operational recommendations
Outlook
September 13,iron oreThe closing price of the main stone contract was 728.5 yuan/ton, up 1.11% from last Friday, and it has risen for 3 consecutive days. The spot price was 773.67 yuan/ton, down 0.1% from last week, and the basis difference was 45.17 yuan/ton. has fallen back.
Iron ore is supported by the fundamentals under the resumption of production by steel mills in the short term, and the downside is relatively limited. The latest fundamental data shows that the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate continue to rise, the average daily output of hot metal and crude steel continues to increase, and port inventories have fallen. It is expected that the iron ore disk price will be supported by fundamentals before the end of September.
However, it is worth noting that the downstream real estate is still relatively weak, and it is expected that the blast furnace operating rate may drop significantly during the National Day.
In addition, since the beginning of April, the U.S. dollar index has facilitated a relatively high negative correlation between the price of iron ore.
To sum up, iron ore is currently relatively strong under the support of fundamentals, but due to the overall weak end demand and the room for the Fed to raise interest rates, the medium and long-term ore prices are still bearish, and the left strategy may be considered before the National Day Appropriately high positions.
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