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Present and future of Italy-EU relations

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Present and future of Italy-EU relations

The European agenda and that of Italy have been profoundly marked by the Russian aggression against Ukraine on 24 February 2022 and by the change of government at the helm of the country.

Mario Draghi pursued the two traditional pillars of Italian foreign policy: the support for transatlantic relations it’s a strong drive towards European integration. In support of Ukraine and alongside its European and American allies, the Draghi government has promoted political action focused onmilitary aid to Kyiv and on the imposition of sanctions on Russia. Draghi has been exceptionally active on European issues and in favor of structural reforms: pushing for one revision of the Stability and Growth Pactpromoting a qualified majority in matters of fiscal and foreign policy, proposing a gas price cap in response to the energy crisis and consolidating a joint front with France and Germany for the granting of candidate country status a Ukraine e Moldavia.

Draghi has also implemented the first reforms of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (Pnrr) which allowed the Commission to disburse the first tranches of EU funds (in addition to the 24.9 billion euros in advance of 2021, two installments of 21 billion euros in February and September 2022).

The intergovernmental approach of the Meloni government

The experience of the pandemic and the approval of Next Generation EU, of which Italy is the primary beneficiary, have gradually emptied the populist narrative of a Europe with little solidarity and eliminated any wish to leave the EU. Faced with this new scenario, the new premier Giorgia Meloni remarked that she is willing to respect the commitments and shared rules currently in force, as well as supporting the Ukrainian cause.

Meloni’s overall approach is inspired by a intergovernmental vision of the integration process, from which derives great caution with respect to reforms of a supranational nature. The prime minister criticized the process of integration of the Union which has “immeasurably expanded its spheres of competence”, identifying in strengthening of the principle of subsidiarity the best recipe for effective policies. In this sense, Meloni has declared that he wants overturn the approach that wants more Europe in Italy to bring more Italy into Europeto better protect the national interest.

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First measures between pragmatism and identity tones

The analysis of the first measures adopted by the premier suggests one “transactional” logic vis-à-vis Brussels. On the one hand, we note the attempt to preserve the sovereignist tones and the protection of identity issues (for example, in attacks on uncontrolled migration and the role of NGOs in the Mediterranean) for the benefit of the national electorate. On the other hand, the government has sought a fruitful dialogue with the European institutional representatives. The appointment of two figures with considerable European political experience such as Antonio Tajani e Raffaele Fitto to lead the key ministries of Foreign Affairs and European Affairs (with responsibility for the Pnrr and the cohesion funds), respectively, and the choice of Brussels as the site of Meloni’s first foreign mission as Prime Minister are emblematic.

In parallel, the position of the premier on the Pnrr has changed: initially his party, the Brothers of Italy, had promised to renegotiate it, while later in the electoral program it was proposed to review some aspects within the permitted limits; after the inauguration of the new government, the first interlocutions with Brussels foreshadow a partial remodeling aimed at achievement of REPowerEU objectives in light of the energy crisis. In any case, all the objectives set for 2022 have been achieved, thanks also to the excellent work of the Draghi government. Furthermore, Commissioner Gentiloni himself has expressly ruled out a possible postponement of the final deadline of the Plan.

On the energy issue, the Meloni government has placed itself in continuity with the previous government in the request for a European solution on the issue of the rising cost of energy and the cap on the gas price. In terms of the Stability and Growth Pact, he generally welcomed the proposals of the European Commission which aim at a revision of the rules towards greater flexibility and differentiation on a national basis.

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In general, a crucial challenge for Giorgia Meloni will be to be able to maintain a firm foothold in Paris and Berlin. Unlike the executive led by Draghi, FdI has never had particularly relaxed dialogue with France and Germany, whose support is nonetheless essential to carry out reforms within the euro area. There have been encouraging signs, such as the willingness to continue the cooperation started with the Draghi government within the framework of the Quirinal Treaty with France and the bilateral Italian-German action plan. However, relations with Paris immediately deteriorated for the dispute related to the Ocean Vikingthe NGO ship Sos Mediterranée that was rejected by Italy and forced to head for French shores in November, leading to a diplomatic crisis with France.

Looking ahead: Mes and migration

With respect to the completion of the Economic and Monetary Union, Italy is currently the only country that has not yet ratified the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), which in the past had seen the opposition of FdI and Lega. The Prime Minister has undertaken not to activate the instrument, but she has opened up to ratification through parliamentary approval. More generally, the government wants to aim to introduce mechanisms to strengthen the euro area resilience and responsiveness to shocks and avoid excessive deregulation in terms of state aid, which could have dangerous repercussions for Italy.

On the subject of migration, the Meloni government insists on the need to find European solutions through mechanisms that allow a fair redistribution among the Member States, emphasizing the defense of the Union’s borders, the creation of a European mission to block departures from the southern shore of the Mediterranean, the opening of hotspots in the countries of North Africa and the increase of development cooperation efforts in the countries of origin. In fact, the government is aiming decisively at relaunching the partnership with the countries of the Southern Neighbourhood, including the proposal of a “Mattei plan for Africa“, relaunched several times by Meloni.

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Given the substantial continuity between Draghi’s European policies and Meloni’s first measures, it remains to verify the ability of the new government to continue in the wake of constructive dialogue with Brussels from here to the crucial deadline of the upcoming European elections. In 2023, the Union will be called upon to develop long-term reform strategies that will allow it to address structural weaknesses and new possible future crises, with the aim of regaining credibility among citizens. If Italy will not be a protagonist and will not be able to collaborate with the other great founding countries in consolidating European governance, this task will be even more difficult.

Cover photo ANSA/ CHIGI PALACE PRESS OFFICE/ FILIPPO ATTILI

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