Strong expectations for the accounts of Unicredit, the first bank in Piazza Affari to take the test of the accounts in the second quarter of 2021. The board of directors will meet tomorrow with publication of results and conference call scheduled for Friday 30 July before the start of the markets.
The bank in Piazza Gae Aulenti last month decided to bring forward the presentation of quarterly accounts by one week by virtue of the simplification, streamlining and strengthening of processes desired by the new CEO Andrea Orcel.
And the accounts for the 2nd quarter are the first to truly express the new leadership as Orcel has been at the helm since mid-April. Investors will focus on balance sheet numbers, but also on any reference to shareholder remuneration policies in view of the end of ECB restrictions on dividends and buybacks. There will also be questions to Orcel on the M&A front with the latest developments that have revealed a certain coldness of the new CEO on the MPS dossier.
Preview of 2nd quarter accounts and full 2021 estimates
In view of the Board of Directors on 29 July called to approve the accounts for the 2nd quarter of 2021, the consensus of the analysts published on the bank’s website indicates a net profit of 720 million euros (median value). Revenues are seen at € 4.258 billion, with an interest margin of € 2.187 billion, with net commissions of € 1.626 billion and an estimated net operating income of € 1.12 billion.
In terms of capital ratios, Cet1 is seen to settle at 15.54%.
Looking at the whole of 2021, the consensus indicates a net profit of 2.517 billion euros, intermediation margin at 17.14 billion and Cet1 at 14.43%.
Expectations on dividends
On the dividend front, a certain variety of assessments persists among analysts on the size of the 2022 dividend (relating to the 2021 financial year): a coupon of € 0.39 per share is indicated (the range goes from € 0.32 to € 0.48 ). Dividend which should then rise to € 0.43 in 2022 and € 0.56 in 2023.
The buy on the title is increasing
Among analysts, the Buy on Unicredit shares are equal to 52% of the total (three months ago before the accounts of the 1st quarter they were only 30%); 33% say Hold while 14% say Sell. The average target price is € 11.44, which is almost 18 percent above the levels at which the stock currently travels.
In the last month, the balance on the Unicredit Stock Exchange is negative (-4%) in the wake of the weakness of the entire banking sector. In any case, the YTD balance remains largely positive, at approximately + 28%.