Source: Donghai Futures Author: Donghai Futures
Research report text
background analysis:
External market: On November 21, LME copper opened at US$8041.5/ton and closed at US$7895/ton, down 1.75% from the closing price of US$8036/ton in the previous trading day.
Spot market: On November 21, the Shanghai Shengshui copper discount was 410 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the Pingshui copper discount was 395 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the wet-process copper discount was 215 yuan/ton , down 35 yuan / ton.
Core logic:Shanghai CopperThe main force 2212 closed at 65030 yuan/ton yesterday afternoon, down 1.26%. Macroscopically, U.S. retail sales in October increased by 1.3% month-on-month, the highest growth rate in eight months. As of November 12, the U.S. filed 222,000 initial jobless claims, unexpectedly lower than the previous value and expectations, still in history At a low level, Fed officials are hawking, and interest rate hike expectations are still repeated.
According to news, workers at the world’s largest copper mine are scheduled to go on strike from November 21 to 23. Fundamentals, supply, loose supply of copper concentrate, TC continued to rise; new production capacity of domestic refined copper was put into operation, but under the disturbance of maintenance, the output growth was weaker than expected; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other three departments released the implementation plan for the carbon peak of the nonferrous metal industry, and proposed to prevent copper, etc. Blind expansion of smelting capacity.
Demand and infrastructure are still resilient, housing companies have improved financing, but exports have weakened, and overseas consumption is under greater pressure. WBMS data show that the global copper market has a supply shortage of 736,000 tons from January to September this year, compared with a shortage of 285,000 tons for the whole of last year.
Inventory, copper warehouse receipts in the previous period was 45,840 tons yesterday, LME copper inventory was 91,250 tons, the global refined copper inventory tension has eased, LME copper 0-3M has turned into a discount, Shanghai copper monthly difference has dropped compared with the previous period, and the risk of squeeze has been significantly reduced . In summary, macro expectations are still repeated, fundamentals are weakening, and copper prices have fallen.
Operation suggestion:Empty orders continue to be held.
Risk factors:The Fed’s policy exceeded expectations and geopolitical risks.
Sina Statement: This news is reproduced from Sina’s cooperative media. Sina.com publishes this article for the purpose of conveying more information, which does not mean agreeing with its views or confirming its description. Article content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in the Sina Finance APP