PTA’s March continued a small destocking cycle TA basis quickly strengthened | PTA_Sina Finance_Sina.com

Source: Huatai Futures Author: Huatai Futures

Research report text

【Strategy Summary】

Overseas risks are still being released, waiting for crude oil to stabilize, butPTAAnd PX processing fees continue to be bullish. The low point of TA’s start-up has passed, and the supply has gradually picked up, but the polyester start-up load has exceeded expectations. The estimated polyester start-up rate in March and April has been revised up to 89%. Under the short-term support of demand, PTA continued to have a small destocking cycle in March. TA Basis is strengthening rapidly, major manufacturers receive goods, and TA processing fees are bullish. The PX processing fee is also bullish. On the one hand, the maintenance of PX in Asia is still concentrated in April;

[core point of view]

Market analysis

For TA, the basis is 185 yuan/ton (+40), and the basis continues to strengthen; TA processing fee is 460 yuan/ton (+36), and the processing fee continues to rise. With the increase and restart of the installation load, the low point of TA’s start-up has passed, and the supply has gradually recovered. However, the start-up of polyester has exceeded expectations. Under the short-term support of demand, PTA has continued a small destocking cycle in March, and the TA basis is also strong, and the drive is acceptable. .

In terms of PX, the PX processing fee is US$481/ton (+65), and the PX processing fee is rising rapidly. In terms of installations, the Shenghong Refinery dropped its load due to an accident, which led to increased market concerns. At the same time, on the one hand, April is the intensive period for PX maintenance in Asia, and on the other hand, it is also the replenishment period for gasoline and aromatics in the US summer, so the PX processing fee continues to be bullish.

In terms of terminals, the polyester load is running at a high level, and downstream demand is somewhat supported. The overall downstream production and sales are good, and the inventory pressure is not great. At the same time, the start-up of polyester has exceeded expectations. The polyester start-up rate is estimated to be revised up to 89% from March to April. Under the short-term support of demand, PTA continued to have a small destocking cycle in March, and the fundamental drive was strong.

Strategy

Overseas risks are still being released, waiting for crude oil to stabilize, but PTA and PX processing fees continue to be bullish. The low point of TA’s start-up has passed, and the supply has gradually picked up, but the polyester start-up load has exceeded expectations. The estimated polyester start-up rate in March and April has been revised up to 89%. Under the short-term support of demand, PTA continued to have a small destocking cycle in March. TA Basis is strengthening rapidly, major manufacturers receive goods, and TA processing fees are bullish. The PX processing fee is also bullish. On the one hand, the maintenance of PX in Asia is still concentrated in April;

risk

Overseas macro environment, sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices, demand for aromatics in overseas gasoline peak seasons, and recovery of downstream demand.

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