The text of the research report
【PVC】
In August, the apparent domestic consumption of PVC was 1.679 million tons, a decrease of 5% month-on-month and a decrease of 8.7% year-on-year; the utilization rate of PVC capacity was 77.5%, a weekly increase of 4%; Jin Yuyuan’s 450,000 tons/year PVC plant was overhauled for 10 days.
The social inventory of PVC was 372,000 tons, up 42,000 tons per week; the price of SG-5PVC in East China was 6,380 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; preliminary U.S. statistics showed that PVC exports in August surged 83% month-on-month to 457.9 million pounds.
Comment: The supply of calcium carbide has increased, the PVC supply side has started to recover, and the inventory has been under pressure. The real estate demand for PVC is mainly just in demand, and the new demand is limited. It is difficult to increase the export of PVC. It is expected that the short-term shock will be weak, and the pressure above the 01 contract is 6220. It is recommended to short-term rebound.
【soda ash】
From January to August, the national real estate development investment was 9,080.9 billion yuan, down 7.4% year-on-year; the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 8,686.49 million square meters, down 4.5% year-on-year; the newly started housing area was 850.62 million square meters, down 37.2% year-on-year.
The inventory of soda ash enterprises was 462,000 tons, an increase of 5.7% from the previous month; the national sample enterprises floatGlassThe inventory was 76.392 million heavy boxes, an increase of 2.3% from the previous month.
Comment: Soda ash starts to recover, inventory rises, and downstream purchases are cautious. Recently, the enthusiasm for soda ash purchases in the photovoltaic glass market is not high, the real estate is sluggish, and most float glass manufacturers are operating at a loss.
Water-cooled float lines are increasing, the daily melting volume is expected to decline, the high inventory of float glass suppresses the price rebound, and the demand is expected to rise in the peak season. It is expected that the soda ash 01 contract will run in short-term shocks, and the bottom line will support 2270. It is recommended to wait and see or rebound and go short.
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