Source: Baocheng Futures Author: Baocheng Futures
Research report text
core point of view
Today, domestic soybean oil continued to adjust, and rapeseed meal fell by more than 2.5%.soybean mealThe performance was defensive, the main force started to compete around the 4150 line, and the funds continued to flow out slightly to reduce the position by nearly 34,000 lots.oil marketpalmOil fell nearly 3%, soybean oil consolidated, and rapeseed oil rose strongly by more than 1%, showing absolute strength. The futures price continued to rely on the 5-day moving average to show a bullish trend.
Overall, the fundamental support for oilseeds has weakened, mainly due to the improvement in supply expectations. At present, the domestic rapeseed meal inventory rebounded from a low level and ushered in a marginal improvement. The demand for aquaculture has entered the off-season of seasonal consumption, and the decline in demand has dragged down the price of rapeseed meal. With the successive arrival of imported seeds to Hong Kong, oil mills in some domestic regions will gradually start up, and the improvement in supply is expected to put pressure on the performance of the long-term rapeseed meal basis. The basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong fell from the previous 1350 to around 920. In contrast, soybean meal inventories continued to decline, and the decline in the basis difference from high levels was limited, which made the soybean meal futures price show a significant resilience during the adjustment process.
As the price difference of soybean and rapeseed meal further widens, the cost-effective advantage of rapeseed meal is highlighted. In the later period, it is necessary to focus on the return path of the price difference of soybean and rapeseed and the arrival rhythm of imported Canadian rapeseed, especially whether the transportation of Canadian rapeseed will continue to ferment still needs to be paid attention to. This will also determine the performance of the domestic rapeseed meal basis. In the process of the domestic high basis falling, although the support of the basis to the price has weakened compared with before, it is still an important factor restricting the adjustment space of the meal price. Meal futures prices are temporarily treated with a strong adjustment idea. With the simultaneous adjustment of the oil market,soybeansThe slight plate effect of oil meal has weakened, the price ratio of rapeseed oil meal has strengthened significantly, and the trend of beans and rapeseed has clearly differentiated.
1. Industry dynamics
1) The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) report showed that speculative funds increased their net long positions in soybean futures and options markets in the week ended Tuesday, marking the fourth consecutive week of increases. As of November 8, 2022, speculative funds held a net long position of 103,908 lots in CBOT soybean futures and options, setting the highest net long position since the week of September 20, an increase of 2,579 lots from a week ago, and net buying in the previous week Enter 25918 hands. Funds held 115,198 long contracts of soybean futures and options, compared with 115,356 contracts a week ago; they held 11,290 short contracts, compared with 14,027 contracts a week ago. The open position of soybean futures and options was 703,484 lots, compared with 669,123 lots a week ago.
2) The weekly export inspection report released by the US Department of Agriculture showed that the number of soybeans shipped by the US to China fell for the third consecutive week last week, a decrease of 30.8% from the previous week. For the week ending November 10, 2022, the United States shipped 1,274,571 tons of soybeans to China, compared with 1,840,547 tons of soybeans shipped the previous week. The amount of U.S. soybean export inspections to China this week accounted for 68.6% of the total export inspections for the week, compared with 71.0% last week and 80.7% two weeks ago. In the November 2022 supply and demand report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts that China’s soybean imports in 2022/23 will be 98 million tons, which is the same as the October forecast and higher than the 91.57 million tons in 2021/22 (previously estimated at 90 million tons). 7.0%.
3) Consulting firm AgRural said on Monday that as of last Thursday (November 10), Brazil’s 2022/23 soybean planting area had reached 69% of the expected area, up from 57% a week ago. Drier weather last week helped advance planting in the south after heavy rainfall slowed planting and crop growth. In the Midwest and the state of Minas Gerais, last week’s hot weather and lack of rainfall have hindered planting efforts as farmers anxiously await the rains forecast by weather agencies. The Brazilian government expects that soybean production in 2022/2023 is expected to exceed 152 million tons, and the planting area will increase to 42.89 million hectares, an increase of 3.4% over the previous year, both of which are record levels.
4) The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly crush report shows that U.S. soybean crush profits fell 9.2% last week from a week ago, which is the third consecutive week of decline, but is still at a historical high. U.S. soybean crush margins for the week ended Nov. 11, 2022, were $4.72 a bushel, compared with $5.20 a bushel a week earlier. Crude soybean oil trucks were quoted at 80.80 cents a pound, or $9.53 a bushel, in Illinois, compared with 81.00 cents a pound, or $9.56 a bushel, a week earlier. The spot price for 48% protein soymeal at Illinois soybean processors was $426.00 a short ton, or $9.90 a bushel, compared with $440.00 a short ton, or $10.23 a bushel, a week earlier. During the same period, the average price of No. 1 soybean was 14.71 US dollars per bushel, which was 14.59 US dollars per bushel a week ago.
5) Consulting agency Datagro said that as of November 4, Brazil’s 2022/23 soybean pre-sales were equivalent to 19.1% of expected production, an increase of only 1.7% from the previous month, the slowest pace since 2014, below The 28.2% in the same period last year was also lower than the historical average of 32.5%. Data show that the pre-sale rate of new beans in the same period in 2020 reached a record 53.4%.
2. Spot price list
3. Related charts
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