It seems that we are facing a hot summer, indeed very hot in terms of prices with a more than likely sting on the electricity and gas bills from 1 July 2021. The estimates are by Davide Tabarelli, president of Nomisma Energia, in view of the quarterly update that the Arera will make in the coming days for the rates from July 1st. “On the basis of preliminary data, it is possible to estimate an increase of around 12% for electricity and over 21% for gas: both record leaps never seen in the past”, explains Tabarelli. “All this leads us to predict a sharply accelerating inflation rate in the coming months.”
Doing two calculations, and arriving at the concrete, the sting envisaged by Nomisma would translate for the typical family (ie with electricity consumption of 2700 kilowatt hours per year with a committed power of 3 kilowatts) in “an average rate that goes to 23.3 cents per kilowatt hour, with a higher annual expenditure of 66 euros ». For gas the increase is stronger, with a jump of 21.3% to 89 cents per cubic meter for the typical family (in this case the average consumption calculated is 1400 cubic meters per year) with a higher expenditure of over 218 euros on an annual basis . “Overall – continues Tabarelli – the higher expenditure will therefore be 284.5 euros per typical family on an annual basis and this largely cancels the drops accumulated in 2020 during the pandemic”.
The reasons? They are different. “The final decision – recalls the president of Nomisma – is expected in the coming days by Arera (regulatory authority for energy, networks and the environment) based on the dynamics of prices on international markets where a small crisis is in effect caused by the concomitance of supply shortages, a recovery in consumption and restrictive environmental policies ». “Gas prices – he explains – have almost doubled compared to last spring when the last adjustment was made, while the heat is pushing electricity prices due to higher consumption for air conditioning and, in part, for economic recovery”.
And again: “In the background, favoring bullish expectations, there is the price of oil also returned to 75 dollars per barrel, against an average of 42 dollars in 2020, and with prospects of further increases, also thanks to a very strong international finance euphoric ».