Real estate industry chart analysis: May house prices rose slightly from the previous month, the impact of tight real estate regulation in the second half of the year may be more prominent

7 large and medium cities nationwide in Mayreal estateThe month-on-month increase in average prices rose slightly from 0.48% in April to 0.52%. During the same period, the number of cities where the price of newly-built commercial housing rose from the previous month was 62, the same as the previous two months.It should be noted that price control measures mayHouse priceThe data caused a certain disturbance.

The month-on-month increase in house prices in May was mainly driven by first- and second-tier cities, and their house prices rose from 0.6% in April to 0.7%. The month-on-month increase in house prices in third- and fourth-tier cities remained unchanged at 0.4% in May. However, we expect that the central bank’s mortgage supplementary loans will weaken, the new “five red line” asset management regulations, and the concentration of population in large cities may cause factors such as Housing prices in small northern cities are facing greater downward pressure.

Among the first-tier cities, the month-on-month increase in house prices in Guangzhou, Shanghai and Shenzhen increased by 0.4, 0.1 and 0.1 percentage points to 1.5%, 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively, while the month-on-month increase in Beijing house prices fell by 0.3 percentage points to 0.3%.

Although the financial situation of low-tier cities is somewhat tight, with the continuous advancement of the “dual cycle” strategy (see “China’s “dual cycle” strategy:

From building a house to making a core”, October 29, 2020), we expect the central governmentreal estateRegulation will continue to be tight. We believe that in the second half of this year (especially the fourth quarter) economic growth will face greater downward pressure.

(Source: Nomura Orient International Securities)

Article source: Nomura Orient International Securities

Editor in charge: DF506

Original title: Real estate industry chart analysis: May house prices rose slightly from the previous month, the impact of tight real estate regulation in the second half of the year may be more prominent