Home » Real estate tax is coming! What impact will the capital market have?Provider Finance Association

Real estate tax is coming! What impact will the capital market have?Provider Finance Association

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Real estate tax is coming! What impact will the capital market have?

According to the Finance Association (Shanghai, Editor Rensen), any disturbance in the real estate tax will not only stir up the sensitive nerves of buyers, but may also have a certain impact on the investment sentiment of A-shares.

This time the real estate tax has really come! On October 23, the 31st meeting of the Standing Committee of the 13th National People’s Congress passed the “Decision of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress on Authorizing the State Council to Launch Real Estate Tax Reform Pilot Work in Certain Regions” (referred to as the “Decision”) , The pilot cities are determined by the State Council and reported to the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress for the record. The real estate tax is classified as residential and non-residential real estate. The five-year pilot program will enact laws in a timely manner when conditions are ripe.

Once the real estate tax is implemented, what impact will it have on the capital market?

Before the real estate tax news landed, the stock prices of real estate stocks had already performed unsatisfactorily. Statistics show that the A-share real estate index has fallen by 12.05% since the beginning of this year. Although the real estate sector has had some room to rebound from the bottom area since it bottomed out in early August, its market performance still ranks fourth from the bottom of 28 Shenwan first-tier industries.

Industry insiders believe that the implementation of real estate tax and the situation of supply exceeding demand in the short term may not only promote a moderate fall in housing prices, but also may continue to impact real estate A-share investment sentiment.

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The following is a list of real estate stocks in regions with high market attention:

At the same time, the valuation repair speed of cement, fiberglass, glass and other related real estate chains may also be affected, but it cannot be “killed all by one stick”. These sectors themselves have other hard logic.

Tianfeng Securities believes that cement is subject to the dual control of energy consumption, and the high price elasticity caused by supply contraction is expected to continue in the fourth quarter; the demand side of glass fiber is driven by downstream sources such as wind power, and the supply side has limited increments, and the tight balance of supply and demand will drive product prices up. , The leading performance is expected to exceed expectations; the supply of glass is relatively rigid, and the demand was previously affected by downstream capital and power curtailment, but the recent inventory may continue to usher in a downward period, and the completion of the project is sustainable.

In addition, some brokerage firms believe that mass consumption will therefore become a beneficiary area. The latest macro strategy of Western Securities stated that since the National People’s Congress introduced a real estate tax trial while also mentioning “promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market”, it is believed that the real estate tax will not cause a great negative disturbance to domestic real estate. The significance of the signal is more prominent. It is expected that low- and middle-income groups and mass consumption will be the beneficiary groups and areas. There are two reasons for judging the above view:

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1) Under the tone of promoting common prosperity, future policies will most likely restrict high-end consumption, increase the income of low- and middle-income groups, and boost mass consumption;

2) In recent years, China’s policy has often been to adjust the structure in relatively high-growth years, and to stabilize growth in years when growth is under pressure. In the first three quarters of this year, China’s actual GDP growth rate was as high as 9.8%, so this year is a typical structural adjustment year. However, in the context of a slowdown in exports next year and a certain downward risk in the real estate investment center, the downward pressure on the economy will gradually increase. Therefore, a series of stable growth policies will be introduced in 2022.

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