Original title: Heavy signal! The reduction of Tesla and Amazon, the global growth stock super “catcher” once again aims at the genetic track, what is the deep logic behind it?
“True investors should think about investment in ten years, not quarters.” This is the investment philosophy of Baillie Gifford, the global super-growth stock “catcher”.
Baiji’s investment strategy is Long Term, Globle Growth (LTGG), which is to tap and invest in the most competitive, innovative and growth efficient high-quality companies on a global scale. The holding period is five years. above.
SMIT (Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust) is the flagship product of Parky Investment. It was established in 1909 and has achieved 933% of investment income in the past ten years. Judging from the latest top ten major stocks announced by this product, after holding Tesla for nearly ten times its seven-year floating profit, SMIT has sold about 80% of Tesla positions in the second half of 2020. It has significantly reduced Amazon, which has been running with it since 2004, and emptied its holdings on Facebook and Google.
Instead, SMIT has added up to the head company of Gene Raceway all the way. As of August 31 this year, Modena (Moderna) has leapt to SMIT’s largest holdings, with a position of 8.7% (close to the top holding). In the 2020 annual report, SMIT appeared for the first time in Modena Among the top ten heavyweight stocks, only 3.5%. The meaning behind Modena’s name is Modified RNA. The outbreak of the new crown epidemic has allowed startups like Moderna to market mRNA vaccines in a short period of time and have achieved great commercial success.
Genetic testing company Illumina is currently SMIT’s second largest holding stock, accounting for 6.3%. In last year’s annual report, Illumina accounted for 5.8%. Judging from the top two major stocks of Modena and Inner America, Berkey Investments is currently betting heavily on the genetic track.
SMIT adheres to the portfolio investment style, and its top ten heavyweight stocks account for 43.6%, namely Modena, Inner America, Asim, Tesla, Tencent, NIO, Express Superman, Meituan, Alibaba And Amazon. In terms of breakdown, the major stocks invested by the global super-growth stock “catcher” Berji are in the six popular tracks of genes, chips, electric cars, games and social media, food delivery and e-commerce. This issue of Brokerage China·Investment Xiaohongshu re-listed the stock trends of companies such as Modena and Innam, using the perspective of SMIT fund managers to observe the huge investment opportunities in the next decade.
Gene Track: Subverting medical care, the next exponential opportunity to rival Internet companies
Modena became the latest winner of Berji’s bet after reducing Tesla’s holdings. As of August 31 this year, Modena has become SMIT’s largest holding stock, with a position accounting for 8.7%. Modena has replaced Tesla’s position as the largest holding stock.
Benefiting from the success of the development of a new generation of new crown vaccines, Modena has increased by as much as 15 times since 2020. Modena’s latest market value is US$125.6 billion, which is comparable to established pharmaceutical companies such as Bristol-Myers Squibb, Sanofi and Amgen.
In the field of medical services, the rising star Modena’s financial data can be described as reaching prehistoric figures. The latest financial statements show that the company’s revenue in the second quarter of this year was US$4.4 billion, far exceeding the US$67 million in the same period last year; it made a profit of US$4 billion in the first six months of this year and lost US$240 million in the first half of last year. According to the latest performance guidance released by the company, the new crown vaccine is expected to supply 800 million to 1 billion doses in 2021, and about 2 to 3 billion doses in 2022. The revenue contributed by the new crown vaccine in 2022 is expected to reach 40 billion to 60 billion US dollars. .
SMIT’s mutual fund manager Tom Slater believes in the 2020 annual report that Modena’s technology application in the medical field will be the most exciting investment opportunity in the next decade. Modena is a household name for the new crown RNA vaccine, but mRNA The technology has a wider range of uses. Modena is similar to a software company, which achieves therapeutic purposes by writing RNA codes of human cells. The company aims to solve a wider range of applications and improve its chances of success from clinical stages to commercial extremes and make sufficient preparations. .
SMIT mutual fund manager James Anderson believes that it is shocking that Modena can produce a vaccine without even the relevant virus in the laboratory. People think that Modena is just a miracle brought about by the new crown vaccine, but this is a huge misunderstanding of the long-term opportunities that Modena faces. Modena’s four major killers in human health-autoimmune system diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and cancer There is huge potential for leadership in therapeutic areas such as epidemics and epidemics.
The name of Modena means Modified RNA (modified RNA). The outbreak of the new crown epidemic has given startups such as Moderna the possibility to bring mRNA vaccines to the market in a short period of time, and thereby promote the development of the entire drug R&D field in the direction of mRNA therapy. Analysts believe that from the first successful extraction of mRNA in 1960, to today, 60 years later, the scientific community has obtained epoch-making new crown mRNA vaccines by modifying mRNA. This technology is playing great significance at an unexpected speed.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk also said at the beginning of the year: “The future of medicine is mRNA. Basically you can use mRNA to cure everything. It is like a computer program, you can program it to perform any operation you need. . You can even become a butterfly.”
SMIT’s second largest holding is Inname, a manufacturer of gene sequencing instruments, and Inname and Modena account for more than 15% of the positions.
As far as the entire gene track is concerned, James Anderson believes that from the perspective of the US market, the current investment opportunities in the medical field are very attractive. In a sense, the collapse of the cost of gene sequencing and machine learning and artificial intelligence are very attractive. The combination of exponential growth is used in medical services. This trend is inevitable, and cutting-edge applications have begun to transform into actual income in medical services.
Chip track: The advent of artificial intelligence and autonomous driving has exacerbated the shortage of chips
Asimak is SMIT’s third largest stock with a position of 5.9%. Due to the spread of chip shortages, ASM has soared nearly 50% this year. The company’s current market capitalization is 300 billion U.S. dollars, with a dynamic P/E ratio of 50 times.
In James Anderson’s view, Asim is undoubtedly the most important company in the era of the Internet, big data and autonomous driving. Asim is the lithographic printing system for the semiconductor manufacturing industry. Without Asim, Moore’s Law would not exist. Asim. Wheat has a monopoly position.
“Semiconductor chips are in short-term or long-term shortages. Both AI and autonomous driving have exacerbated the shortage of semiconductor chips. Asmek is an important company that guarantees the operation of the world, and its stock price has risen as a result. This will be even more important in the future. Clear.” James Anderson said.
Electric car track: Tesla’s competitiveness remains outstanding for a long time
On the basis of a 7-fold increase last year, Tesla has risen again by 15% this year. In SMIT’s 2020 semi-annual report, Tesla is still the largest stock with a position of 12%; in the 2020 annual report, Tesla has been reduced to SMIT’s fifth largest stock with a position Accounted for 5%; As of August 31 this year, Tesla’s position accounted for further reduced to 4.3%.
Tom Slater said that in order to maintain a reasonable diversification of the investment portfolio and focus on more potential returns, he sold about 80% of Tesla positions in the past year, but Tesla has a long future. Competitiveness remained outstanding during the period. If Tesla can rely on artificial intelligence to achieve most of the automatic driving, Tesla will be more competitive.
Tom Slater also believes that Tesla relies on continuous quality upgrades and production expansion to become the leader, and other companies are followers.
Game and social media track: Tencent is greatly underestimated
Tencent is SMIT’s fifth largest stock. Due to the impact of regulatory policies, Tencent has fallen nearly 15% this year. The current market value of Tencent Holdings is HK$4.6 trillion, and its dynamic price-earnings ratio has dropped to 20 times.
James Anderson believes that Tencent’s layout in the game industry is very impressive and far surpasses its American counterparts. SMIT expects that in the next five years, Tencent’s game industry revenue will rise from US$20 billion to US$50 billion, with a profit margin. Will remain unchanged at 40%. Tencent’s current market value of $730 billion only reflects the profits of its game industry, and WeChat and other assets are equivalent to giving away.
“Tencent is still the best capital redistribution company. It owns 20% of Meituan, 12% of Tesla, and 12% of Snap. These are just some of the cases. Tencent also plays a role in its investment companies. It has an excellent guiding role. Tencent’s market value has been greatly underestimated under the fear of market sentiment.”
James Anderson said that Tencent’s game industry supports its future market value. Its game industry is even stronger than before. Tencent has 40 games this year. Compared with American technology platform companies, Tencent’s valuation is more attractive. Tencent’s full deployment in the cloud is a major growth point for its future.
The takeaway track: high-frequency demand for catering is the key to understanding the takeaway track
SMIT is optimistic about the takeaway track. Its seventh largest stock is Takeaway Superman, with a position of 2.9%, and the eighth largest stock is Meituan, with a position of 2.8%.
Tom Slater believes that people are getting more and more accustomed to receiving more goods at home, and the speed and efficiency of takeaway companies will double with the expansion of the scale of takeaway products and the rapid increase in the categories and services of takeaway products. Meituan and Southeast Asian food delivery Superman have expanded from catering to department stores and other convenience products, and the business of Doordash food delivery company in the United States is also expanding similarly.
James Anderson believes that when people realize the importance and high frequency of catering for offline demand, the market will understand that the boundaries of food delivery companies can be extended to department stores and other local items. Over time, people will realize that food delivery is very good. The business model has a much larger market than people previously expected. Takeaway Superman is entering the distribution of department stores and other necessities. This company will continue to achieve a compound growth rate of 30%-40% in the next ten years, and its gross profit margin will exceed 50%.
E-commerce track: Amazon still faces a wide range of opportunities
SMIT’s ninth and tenth largest positions are Alibaba and Amazon respectively, with positions accounting for 2.8% and 2.7% respectively.
Tom Slater believes that SMIT sold Facebook and Google, and also lightened Amazon. Although these companies can generate huge cash flow and grow rapidly, the problem for SMIT is how to allocate resources and improve Further growth on such a large volume. Amazon still faces the widest range of opportunities, but Bezos’s departure from the position of CEO may reduce the company’s aggressiveness in pioneering and innovating, so be wary of this.
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