Home » Resumed, Istat confirms “sustained growth” in the second quarter: GDP + 2.7%. Accelerate inflation

Resumed, Istat confirms “sustained growth” in the second quarter: GDP + 2.7%. Accelerate inflation

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MILANO – L’State confirms, in the final data for the second quarter of the year, the “sustained growth” of Italy, with the GDP which rose by 2.7% over the first period of the year. And it traces an increase in inflation in August, with the price index rising 0.5% over July and 2.1% annually, at the top since January 2013 when there was a 2.2% increase. .

The Institute reaffirms the preliminary data, therefore, explaining that “the strong recovery of productive activity it reflects a marked increase in added value both in industry and in the tertiary sector. The internal components of consumption and investments supported the growth (+2.6 and +0.5 percentage points), while the foreign component provided a contribution of 0.3 points. The contribution of inventories was negative (0.8 points). Hours worked grew by 3.9% in economic terms, job positions by 1.9%, per capita incomes were stationary. “According to Unicredit calculations, with the confirmation of the change, GDP remains at 4% roughly below pre-crisis levels.

At the turning point of 2021, the acquired growth of Italy is thus 4.7%: national wealth would rebound so much, after the collapse of 2020 linked to lockdowns, if in the second half of the year there were no economic changes and the engine went on in neutral. For this figure, this is a slight downward revision compared to the + 4.8% taken into account with the preliminary estimate at the end of July.

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Less relevant, because it is compared with an exceptional period such as the spring of 2020, the annual jump of 17.3% compared to the second quarter of last year: however, it represents a maximum ever recorded in the historical series, started in 1995.

An anticipated rebound of the Italian economy is therefore confirmed, which is now undergoing the test of confirmation in the summer and autumn period. According to observers, the latest data on confidence and on the production or turnover of industries certify that the strong push of the primary sector has run out. For this reason, it remains to be seen how much household consumption (which, after the lockdowns, have returned to orient themselves on services such as travel and outdoor activities) will be able to pick up the baton of the restart: the possibility that the health situation entails new restrictions. is the main bugbear. The government expects to exceed + 5% of GDP at the end of the year, the minister Giorgetti he pushed himself to raise the bar over + 6%.

If you take the data OECD published yesterday, the 2.7% rebound achieved by Italy is close to the record. On average, the economy of the Organization’s member states grew by 1.6% in the period, remaining below pre-Covid levels but still well over the + 0.6% recorded in the previous quarter. The pace of growth was the same for the seven major economies as a whole, but with strong disparities from one country to another. The United Kingdom registered a + 4.8%, followed by Italy at + 2.7%. Germany recorded + 1.6% and France + 0.9%. In the euro area, the average was thus + 2%.

The Coldiretti commented on Istat data, noting the “historical result marked by Made in Italy agri-food exports which recorded a record increase of + 23.1% in June with a projection in value on an annual basis estimated at 50 billion in 2021”, which pushed GDP growth. “Italy can restart from its strengths with the agri-food industry that has shown resilience in the face of the crisis with a driving role for employment and the entire economy”, affirms the president of Coldiretti Ettore Prandini in underlining that ” with the Covid emergency, food has become Italy’s top wealth for a value equal to 25% of GDP with 538 billion euros along the entire agri-food chain extended from field to table and 4 million workers employed in 740 thousand companies agriculture, 70,000 food industries, over 330,000 catering establishments and 230,000 retail outlets ”. The turning point – concludes Coldiretti – is also evident in Italy where the growth in family consumption is accompanied by the resumption of meals outside the home to eat in restaurants, trattorias, pizzerias, farmhouses, pubs or ice cream parlors after the 2020 crack that halved turnover. (-48%) for a total loss of almost 41 billion euros in 2020.

As regards the prices, after Germany yesterday, Italy too shows signs of acceleration, albeit below the German level. Dynamics that will fuel the internal debate at the ECB on the need to start normalizing monetary policy, given that the target for prices is 2%. Also Istat, in August, traced a growth in the national consumer price index for the whole community (NIC), gross of tobacco, which marks an increase of 0.5% on a monthly basis and 2.1% % on an annual basis (from + 1.9% the previous month). The tendential acceleration of inflation is mainly due to that of energy prices (from + 18.6% in July to + 19.8%) and in particular to those of the non-regulated component (from + 11.2% to + 12.8%).

The so-called “shopping cart“. The prices of food, home and personal care goods mark a + 0.8% trend against the zero change in July. In preliminary estimates, those of high-frequency purchasing products accelerate from + 2% at + 2.5%.

Price dynamics are spreading across Europe at different rates. The harmonized index at EU level for Italy is + 2.6% while in the euro area, according to the flash estimate of Eurostat, the rate rose to 3% in August, up from 2.2% in July and above the forecasts that gave it + 2.8%. The main weight is energy (15.4%, compared to 14.3% in July), followed by industrial goods net of energy (2.7%, compared to 0.7% in July), food, alcohol and tobacco (2%, compared to 1.6% in July) and services (1.1%, compared to 0.9% in July). The highest rate is in Estonia (5%), Lithuania (4.9%) and Belgium (4.7%).

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