On June 10th, the Chinese peoplebankThe financial statistics released show that at the end of May, the broad sensecurrency(M2) The balance was 227.55 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%. In the same month, RMB loans increased by 1.5 trillion yuan, and the scale of social financing increased by 1.92 trillion yuan.Experts believe that the currency in MayCreditThe support for the real economy continues to remain solid.
ChinaMinsheng BankLead researcher Wen Bin believes that with the rapid decline of new RMB loans last month, the scale and structure of new RMB loans in May were relatively stable, slightly exceeding market expectations, reflecting the continued support of credit to the real economy.
Wen Bin said that from a structural point of view, the increase in loans for the residential sector and the corporate sector was basically the same as the previous month and the same period last year, and the proportion of the new structure was basically stable.The short-term loans of the residential sector increased by RMB 180.6 billion, a rebound from the previous month; the medium- and long-term loans increased by RMB 442.6 billion, slightly less than last month and the same period last year, reflectingreal estateTightening control policies, housing loansinterest rateThe upward trend may impose certain restrictions on mortgage loans, but the limited increase in the scale reflects that residents still have a certain demand for housing purchases.Short-term loans in the corporate sector decreased by 64.4 billion yuan, and bill financing increased by 153.8 billion yuan, which was less than last month and the same period last year, indicating that the inflow of short-term operating loans has been strictly investigated in the near future.real estateThe market may continue to exert its effect. Medium and long-term loans to the corporate sector increased by 652.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.7 billion yuan from the previous month, but an increase of 122.3 billion yuan over the same period last year. The new structure remained basically stable.
Zhongtai SecuritiesChief Economist LeeThunderIt is believed that in the first five months, new RMB loans increased by 10.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 359 billion yuan, and continued to maintain a trend of year-on-year growth. In May, 1.5 trillion yuan of new RMB loans were added, an increase of 14.3 billion yuan from the high base during the response to the epidemic last year, an increase of 312.7 billion yuan over the same period in 2019, and the financing needs of the real economy have been strongly supported.
The stability of monetary and credit support can also be reflected in M2 and social financial data.LeeThunderSaid that the growth rate of M2 and social financing scale remained stable, basically matching the nominal economic growth rate. At the end of May, M2 increased by 8.3% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points higher than that at the end of April; the growth rate of social financing was 11%, although it has fallen from the end of April, it has maintained a high growth rate of more than 11% for 15 consecutive months .
“The rebound of M2 reflects the enhancement of credit derivation capacity. On the one hand, RMB 1.5 trillion in new RMB loans was added in May, which was better than the previous month and the same period last year, which improved the currency derivation capacity. On the other hand, May was a traditional tax payment. In May, new fiscal deposits in May amounted to 925.7 billion yuan, an increase of 348 billion yuan over the previous month, but 384.3 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Contribute.” Wen Bin said.
In terms of social finance, preliminary statistics indicate that the increase in social financing in May was 1.92 trillion yuan, which was 1.27 trillion yuan less than the same period last year and 208.1 billion yuan more than the same period in 2019.
“During the epidemic last year, companies had more additional financing needs, and financial institutions fully met them. The increase in social financing was significantly higher than in normal years. This year, business conditions have improved, and it is normal for the increase in social financing to decline accordingly.” LiThunderIt is believed that from a structural point of view, RMB loans issued by financial institutions to the real economy have grown reasonably, and the growth rate of stock financing has continued to rise, indicating that indirect financing and direct financing have jointly made efforts to support the real economy.
Wen Bin said that, on the whole, the growth rate of M2 has rebounded from last month, and the scale and structure of new RMB loans are basically stable, reflecting the financial support for the real economy; the growth rate of social financing stock has fallen, and the new social financing has a structure. The tightening of sexuality reflects the requirements for risk prevention and structural adjustment.
At present, as the end of the season is approaching, liquidity is showing a certain marginal tightening, broad-spectruminterest rateHas risen, the credit environment has tightened, superimposing my country’s recentPPIAccelerate growth. Therefore, the question of whether the policy will be shifted has caused market concerns.
Everbright BankFinancial MarketsAnalystZhou Maohua said that at present, the domestic economy is in a recovery period, and there are still uncertainties in the trend of overseas demand. The recovery of some domestic industries is not balanced and the foundation is not stable enough, and certain policy support is still needed. At the same time, high commodity prices and prevention of local potential risks require domestic policies to remain stable.
“Considering that my country’s economy is operating within a reasonable range, near the potential output level, and price trends are generally controllable, the monetary policy should be adapted to the new development stage, adhere to the principle of stability, adhere to the implementation of normal monetary policy, and especially pay attention to cross-cutting. The cycle of supply and demand balances, and the strength and rhythm of the policy should be grasped.” Chinese peoplebankPresident Yi Gang recently held the 13thLujiazuiSaid on the forum.
(Source: Economic Daily)
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