Chinese peopleBankAugust financial data released on the 10th.In view of the total and structural changes in social financing revealed by the data, experts expect that future macro policies will focus on the design of cross-cycle policies and strengthenCreditThe stability of total growth will increase support for manufacturing, small and medium-sized enterprises and other key areas and weak links.
Speeding up the issuance of special bonds is expected to support social financing
peopleBankAccording to published data, at the end of August, broadlycurrency(M2) The balance of 231.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%; RMB loans increased by 1.22 trillion yuan in August, a decrease of 63.1 billion yuan from the same period last year; the stock of social financing at the end of August was 305.28 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3% ; In August, the increase in social financing was 2.96 trillion yuan, 629.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year.
Bank of CommunicationsTang Jianwei, the chief researcher of the Financial Research Center, said that the above data reflects that the credit demand of enterprises and residential sectors has weakened in August due to multiple factors. On the enterprise side, due to extreme weather such as high temperature and flood disasters in some areas, as well as the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in some regions, the overall production activity of the enterprise is not high.At the residents’ end, everywherereal estateUnder the environment of continuous tight regulation, residents’ mid- and long-term credit demand will be affected to a certain extent.
Minsheng BankLead researcher Wen Bin said that the new RMB loans in August were slightly lower than the level of the same period last year. Coupled with the high level of 10% or more in the same period last year, the growth rate of M2 fell slightly in August. The growth rate of M1 in August continued to fall by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month to 4.2%, reflecting the weakening of business activities.
In terms of social finance, Wen Bin said that the issuance of special bonds has accelerated. It is expected that the special bond issuance will continue to exert force before the end of the year, which will play a certain supporting role in the scale of new social financing.
Generally speaking, the chief macro of Oriental JinchengAnalystWang Qing said that the implementation of strict supervision in some areas since the beginning of the year and the recent increase in downward pressure on the economy are important reasons for the weak financial data in August. Another reason is the time lag effect. From the release of the policy signal to the appearance of the wide credit effect, there will often be a time lag of 2 to 3 months, especially in the context of this time emphasizing inter-cyclical adjustment and not engaging in “overwhelming flooding”. Under the circumstances, it may be a relatively slow process to see the effect of wide credit.
Stabilize market expectations and enhance corporate confidence
Experts said that in view of the slowdown in currency and credit expansion growth, while the demand for effective financing has weakened, the next step is to make cross-cyclical adjustments to macroeconomic policies, step up efforts to boost domestic demand, stabilize market expectations, and enhance corporate confidence.
Wen Bin suggested that in the future, it is necessary to maintain a reasonable growth in credit scale, increase structural policies and credit structure adjustments, make good use of the special re-lending policies that have already been introduced, and increase access to inclusive finance, green development, technological innovation and other fields and small and medium-sized enterprises. The support of market entities such as micro-enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households ensures that the economy is operating within a reasonable range.
According to industry insiders, the subsequent monetary policy will continue to support the real economy, especially the loan demand of manufacturing companies. Monetary policy will continue to be stable and flexible, with more emphasis on forward-looking and effective.
Before the peopleBankPresident Yi Gang emphasized that we will continue to do a good job of cross-cycle design, link up credit work in the second half of this year and the first half of next year, increase credit support to the real economy, especially small, medium and micro enterprises, and enhance the stability of total credit growth, and maintaincurrency supplyAnd the growth rate of social financing scale basically matches the nominal economic growth rate. Persist in advancing the adjustment of credit structure, increase support for key areas and weak links, so that more funds flow to technological innovation, green development, and more flow to small, medium and micro enterprises, individual industrial and commercial households, and new agricultural business entities.
Wang Qing said that the financial support for the real economy in the future will mainly depend on the macroeconomic trends affected by the evolution of the epidemic at home and abroad. In the context of my country’s ample room for monetary policy, the policy side will move on the spot. In the future, policy tools such as RRR cuts, re-lending and rediscounting, and MLF operations have room for effort.
(Source: China Securities Journal)
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