Ruida Futures: Cost support is limited, beans fluctuate at a high level
External disk trend: Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) rose on Friday, while soybean meal rose. CBOT November soybean futures rose 8.8 cents to 1,292 cents per bushel, December soybean meal contract rose 1 US dollar to 341 US dollars per short ton; December soybean oil contract rose 0.2 cents to 59 cents per pound.
Disk trend: ①A2111 closed at 5840, 0.48% compared to the previous trading day, volume 112569, 135709 open positions, -5424, A11-January spread -24; ②B2110 closed at 4525, -0.59% compared to the previous trading day, 35510 lots traded, 17232 lots of open interest, -2363; ③M2201 closed at 3486, -0.29% from the previous trading day, 885267 lots traded, 1234916 lots of open interest, 35203 lots, the basis difference between Jiangsu spot and M2201 was 81, from January to May of M Spread 247; ④Y2201 contract closed at 9162, 1.28% from the previous trading day, the trading volume was 633533 hands, the open interest was 481417 hands, 9826, and the Y-1-5 month spread was 644.
Message: 1. Brazil’s 2021/2022 soybean planting work is about to start, and currently only pre-sales have completed about 25% of the expected total output, which is about half of the sales volume in the same period last year. The soybean pre-sale volume is 36.3 million tons, and the total output of Safras is expected to be 142.2 million. Ton. 2. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released data. Private exporters reported that 126,000 tons of soybeans were exported to China and delivered in the 2021/2022 market year. The marketing year for US soybeans began on September 1.
Market price: domestic soybean price: 5540, +0. Soybean meal price of oil plants in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu: 3570, +20. Dealers in Tianjin area offer 9770 first-class soybean oil. Zhangjiagang dealer quoted 9780. Traders in Guangzhou quoted 9850. (Unit: Yuan/Ton)
Inventory of warehouse receipts: 15,981 lots of Douyi warehouse receipts, -13 lots; Doudou second warehouse receipts 0 lots, 0 lots. Soybean meal warehouse receipts were 21,520 lots, 0; soybean oil warehouse receipts were 7,226 lots, -400 lots.
Main forcePositions: the top 20 long positions in the Douyi 2111 contract are 110307, -5768, short positions 115398, -3427, and a net position of -5091; the top 20 long positions in the Douyi 2110 contract are 11930, -1638, short positions 12520, -436, and a net position -590. Soybean meal 2201 top 20 long positions 855027,25446, short positions 945839,21689, net positions -90812. The top 20 soybean oil 2201 contracts are long 327296,7171, short 359627,7630, and net position -32331. (Unit: hand)
Opinion summary: Bean 1: China Grain Oils & Oils Corporation releases soybean auction saleannouncement, Domestic soybeans will be auctioned on September 7 in Bei’an, Nenjiang, Muling, Harbin and other storage depots. The soybean production period is 2018 and 2019, and the quantity is 77092 tons. As soon as the news came out, the market’s reaction was exhausted, which caused Dou Yi to rebound. However, soybeans from the Northeast region are expected to be launched in late September, and soybeans from other regions are expected to be launched around National Day. In addition, many traders still have large stocks at present, and these soybean sources are expected to be carried over to the new season soybeans to increase the market supply of the new season beans. From the disk perspective, the Douyi range is dominated by fluctuations, and there is still an adjustment in the short-term. Participation in the intraday short-term or temporarily wait and see.
Bean 2: The weekly crop growth report released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows that as of the week of August 29, the excellent growth rate of soybeans in the United States was 56%, and the market expected it to be 56%. The same period last year was 66%. 56%; the pod-setting rate of US soybeans was 93%, 88% in the previous week and 95% in the same period last year; the deciduous rate of soybeans in the US was 9%, compared with 3% in the previous week and 7% in the same period last year. The U.S. corn growth rate is 60%, and the market estimate is 59%, compared with 60% in the previous week and 62% in the same period last year. Although the good rate of U.S. soybean planting was in line with expectations, it was significantly lower than the same period last year, limiting future output and supporting U.S. soybean prices. In Argentina, according to a report issued by the Ministry of Agriculture of Argentina, as of August 25, Argentine farmers have sold 28.5 million tons of 2020/21 soybeans, an increase of 568,600 tons from a week ago, but a decrease of 5.9% from the same period last year. According to the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture, the pace of soybean sales lags behind the same period last year, when the sales volume was 30.3 million tons. Argentine soybean sales continue to be slow, restricting soybean supply. From the disk perspective, Dou Er Masukura went up, to test the pressure situation near the previous high of 4600, and pay attention to the effectiveness of its pressure.
Soybean meal: In terms of US soybeans, the recent weakness of US soybeans has made it difficult to form an effective support for domestic beans. However, the topic time around the cultivation of US soybeans is dwindling, and the later stage will focus on the harvest and export of US soybeans. In South America, starting from the second half of September, Brazil will enter the planting season. The market generally expects that the output of Brazilian beans in the new year will reach a new high. However, the recent slow progress in the sales of new beans in Brazil shows the market’s price for forward beans. Expectations are still too high. From the perspective of soybean meal fundamentals, domestic soybean crush has declined slightly, but it is still at a relatively high level. Downstream feed farming companies have been slow to pick up goods, and soybean meal stocks continue to rise. On August 30, the soybean meal inventory of major domestic oil plants was 1 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons from the same period last week, a decrease of 130,000 tons from the same period last month, a decrease of 230,000 tons from the same period last year, and a decrease of 10 from the average of the same period in the past three years. Million tons. The market predicts that soybean imports will continue to decrease in September, which is lower than the soybean crush, and there may be a gap between supply and demand, supporting soybean meal prices. From the demand side, the inertial recovery of the production capacity of live pigs is still an important factor supporting the demand for soybean meal. On the disk, the US soybean trend is weak and it is difficult to form cost support for soybean meal. Soybean meal is mainly weak and fluctuating. It can participate in the short-term intraday or temporarily wait and see.
Soybean oil: In terms of U.S. soybeans, the recent weakness of U.S. soybeans has made it difficult to form an effective support for domestic beans. However, the topic of growing U.S. soybeans is dwindling. In the later stage, attention will be paid to the harvest and export of U.S. soybeans. In South America, starting from the second half of September, Brazil will enter the planting season. The market generally expects that the output of Brazilian beans in the new year will reach a new high. However, the recent slow progress in the sales of new beans in Brazil shows the market’s price for forward beans. Expectations are still too high. From the perspective of oil and fat fundamentals, the domestic soybean crush dropped slightly to 1.98 million tons. As downstream companies stock up before the two festivals, the pick-up speed was relatively fast, and soybean oil inventories declined slightly. Monitoring shows that on August 30, the soybean oil inventory of major oil plants in the country was 870,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 10,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 60,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 450,000 tons, and a decrease of 570,000 tons from the average of the same period in the past three years.Affected by the boost in downstream demand, soybean oil inventories are steadilyOil priceLattice forms support. Recently, the performance of the domestic oil and fat futures market has been significantly stronger than that of the external market. The strong spot and the upside-down of imported profits have caused the market to keep up with the upswing. From a disk perspective, in the short-term, under the drag of the external disk and the support of the domestic disk, the grease is in a dilemma. It will remain volatile, and temporarily wait and see or operate within the day.
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(Source: Ruida Futures)
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