[Epoch Times August 25, 2021](Epoch Times reporter Liu Yi comprehensive report) Guan Tao, chief economist of Bank of China Securities, said recently that the mainland’s economy has become a consensus, and the downward pressure on the economy will increase significantly in the second half of the year. Moreover, the mainland’s economy is also facing five major problems, including the gradual decline in the external demand boom.
Recently, some economists have expressed their views on the mainland economy, believing that the mainland economy will face downward pressure in the second half of the year or even next year.
According to a Reuters report, Guan Tao, chief economist of Bank of China Securities, believes that China’s economy has become a consensus under the influence of the base. The downward pressure on the economy in the second half of the year has significantly increased, which put pressure on the RMB exchange rate.
In his view, China’s economy will face five major problems: First, the gradual decline in external demand, and the urgency of domestic demand has further increased; second, the employment pressure is still high, and the service industry’s ability to create jobs is still blocked; third, behind the employment pressure The income problems caused by the plague cannot be fully compensated by the finances, and there are problems of idle funds and insufficient projects in infrastructure investment, which may not be able to significantly promote employment growth as in the past; fourth, the pressure on the operation of small and medium-sized enterprises remains unabated, and the fundamental reason is domestic demand. Insufficiency; Fifth, the short-term impact of strict supervision may gradually appear. Real estate sales are not weak and consumption is in sharp contrast, and how to balance long-term development and short-term pain will test the ability of policy control.
Guan Tao said that the current economic recovery still has shortcomings. Some of the losses caused by the plague may be irreparable. After dismantling and analysis, service consumption has dragged down the recovery of household consumption, while commodity consumption in non-residential sectors has been weak. This may be an important reason for the slow recovery of social retail sales.
Nomura Securities also believes that the Chinese Communist Party’s high-pressure regulation of real estate may cause economic growth to decline more than expected.
According to news from Reuters on the 25th, Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura Securities, stated in the latest report that in the coming months, China will be affected by the recent wave of plagues, slowing exports, high-pressure regulation of real estate, and carbon reduction. The economic growth rate may decline sharply; the real estate industry may once again become the focus, testing the nerves of the Chinese Communist government and global investors.
Lu Ting believes that the CCP’s “control” on real estate has risen to the level of national strategy, directly intervening in the supply of real estate credit, and there is almost no room for maneuver to withdraw related high-pressure measures; the market should be prepared for a much more serious than expected An economic slowdown, more loans and bond defaults, and potential stock market turmoil.
Since the beginning of this year, the Chinese Communist Party has continuously escalated its suppression of the property market, and the Chinese property market has entered the autumn. In July, the month-on-month increase in housing prices in 70 cities fell to a six-month low. Operating data showed that the volume and price of the commercial housing market continued to weaken, and sales data was negative for the first time in a single month year-on-year.
In addition, officials within the CCP system also expressed concern about the economic situation in the second half of the year or even next year.
Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao stated at a press conference of the State Council Information Office on August 23 that China’s foreign trade in the second half of this year to next year “may be a very serious situation” and that it is necessary to “prevent the great ups and downs from harming economic growth and market players”.
Wang Wentao said that with the gradual slowdown of the plague, the orders that had previously flowed to the mainland due to the severe plague began to flow out, and some anti-epidemic materials, masks, protective clothing, respirators, etc. have caused China’s exports to increase sharply, but they have now fallen sharply. One-off factors have gradually faded, so we see a gradual slowdown in growth in the second half of the year, and the situation next year may be severe.”
Wang Wentao said that China is now facing the impact of transportation capacity and rising freight rates, the rise of commodities and raw materials, the pressure of RMB exchange rate appreciation, and the increase in labor costs. These foreign trade companies are encountering the “four difficulties”, especially making it more difficult for small and medium-sized enterprises. .
Liu Shangxi, president of the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, also stated on August 19 that the downward pressure on China’s economy is increasing under severe circumstances.
He believes that there are five major problems in the Chinese economy that need to be resolved. First, domestic demand is weak, raw material prices are rising, and a virtuous cycle between supply and demand needs to be formed; secondly, upstream and downstream companies are clearly differentiated, and the micro and macro cycles are not smooth; second, the long-term economic and social expectations are not stable, social vitality and economic momentum Insufficiency; in addition, employment and income factors restrict the improvement of residents’ consumption expectations; finally, the obstruction of the current system and mechanism and the poor circulation have led to overall high costs.
He said that costs are all-round high, and the outstanding characteristics of the macro economy are manifested in the overall increase in development costs, living costs, macro costs and micro costs; corporate costs reduce profit margins, living costs reduce demand space, and government costs reduce fiscal space, all of which have increased The fragility of the economy and society. In the second half of the year, external demand may be weak and become a pull-down factor for the economy. Under the severe situation, the downward pressure on China’s economy is increasing.
Editor in charge: Fang Ming#
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