(Original title: Sector change | Shenzhen and other places issue consumer coupons, and the commercial retail sector has risen again)
The Zhitong Finance APP was informed that on April 28, affected by the news of the issuance of consumer coupons in Shenzhen and other places, the A-share commercial retail sector rose again. 002419.SZ) daily limit, Ningbo Zhongbai (600857.SH), Shanghai Nine hundred (600838.SH), Ginza (600858.SH), Huijia Times (603101.SH), Hefei Department Store (000417.SZ), Mao Stocks such as Industrial Commercial (600828.SH) rose.
Shenzhen announced that it will successively issue 500 million yuan of consumer coupons to Shenzhen consumers through the Meituan and JD platforms from recently, to better meet the needs of citizens for shopping, food, tourism, etc. Including 400 million yuan of shopping vouchers, 60 million yuan of dining vouchers, 10 million yuan of travel and sports vouchers, and 30 million yuan of digital RMB red envelopes, the categories of 400 million yuan of shopping vouchers cover consumer electronics, clothing and apparel, gold and jewelry, etc.
The CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that the State Council issued the opinions on promoting consumption, and the policy intention to stimulate the recovery of consumption is obvious. Since April, Beijing, Tianjin, Shenzhen and other places have issued consumer coupons, which are applicable to optional consumer goods such as home appliances, car purchases, catering, retail, tourism and sports. The actual effect of consumer coupons in stimulating consumption is expected to be related to the applicable categories. However, under the background of the current local epidemic having a greater impact on consumption, it is expected that steady growth from top to bottom and local promotion fee policies are expected to continue to be introduced to boost domestic consumption. The repeated impact of local epidemics has increased short-term pressure on consumption, but we believe that from the perspective of investment, there are existing expectations, and from the perspective of 1-2 years, its impact will eventually weaken. Considering that it will take time for policy-driven economic transmission, we believe that the potential opportunities for the overall allocation of consumption in the second half of the year are greater than those in the first half of the year. Short-term recommendations are still based on the logic of epidemic mitigation and marginal restoration, focusing on travel industry chain industries such as hotels, duty-free, scenic spots, and catering, popular products such as food and dairy products, and agricultural sectors such as planting and breeding.
Guotai Junan believes that the government’s issuance of consumer coupons is conducive to promoting short-term consumption and restoring consumer confidence on the one hand, and on the other hand, through indirect subsidies to businesses, it can alleviate the operating pressure during the economic downturn. At the same time, consumer coupons have a certain multiplier effect. For every 1 yuan of consumer coupons put in, about 2-3 times of direct consumption can be generated. The areas benefited by consumer coupons mainly include basic food, home appliances, automobiles, catering, tourism, hotels, etc. With favorable policies, these industries that have been greatly affected by the epidemic are expected to experience marginal improvement.