Summary
[Seven FOF managers who prefer growth style funds in the second half of the year talk about the layout]Which type of fund is most favored by fund buyers in the second half of the year? Most FOF fund managers choose the following categories: growth style funds, fixed income + funds, and QDII funds that invest in Hong Kong stocks. (China Fund News)
The second half of the yearfundWhich type of fund do buyers prefer?Most FOF fund managers choose the following categories: growth style funds, fixed income + funds, investment in Hong Kong stocksQDIIfund
Driven by the money-making effect of funds in 2020, the management scale of public funds will historically approach the era of 23 trillion yuan, and public funds will increasingly become investors.Financial managementOne of the preferred varieties.
In the first half of the year, we experienced a period of ups and downs, busy industry rotations, and rapid changes in hot spots. How should fund investment be laid out in the second half of the year? How to screen active equity funds? Which varieties are better?
In this regard, a reporter from China Fund News interviewedSouthern FundLi Wenliang, the head of the FOF investment department, and Lu Jingchang, the six-month holding hybrid FOF fund manager of GF Core,Bosera FundMai Jing, general manager of the multi-asset management department,Harvest FundManaging Director and Head of Asset Allocation Wang Hanbo, Ping An Fund FOF Investment Director Dai Hongkun,Cathay Pacific FundZhou Luoyan, head of FOF investment, and Su Jingwei, investment manager of FOF Investment Department of Fortis.
These professional “fund buyers” said that both the equity market and the bond market will maintain a wide range of fluctuations. Relatively speaking, the investment price of stocks is slightly higher. In the second half of the year, they are optimistic about active equity funds, fixed income + funds, and QDII funds.
The stock price is relatively high
China Fund News reporter: How do you plan to allocate large-scale assets in the second half of the year? Which types of assets are more cost-effective to invest in stocks and bonds?
Li Wenliang: Looking forward to the second half of the year, the structural opportunities of stocks will be better than bonds. From the perspective of economic development, the domestic economy has basically normalized in the short term, and the overseas economy is still affected by the volatility of the epidemic. Therefore, some industries that can replace overseas production capacity have high industry prosperity, and the domestic medium and long-term economic growth is still resilient. The current market valuation is clearly differentiated, and some heavy industries are at low valuations, which to a certain extent inhibits the overall downside of the market.
From the perspective of market style, sector rotation is more frequent.The current financing purchase and turnover rate is still around the historical average level, there is still room for the market to rebound, and the structure is more biased.PerformanceSupported sectors. Bond yields in the second half of the year are expected to remain within a narrow range.
Lu Jingchang: The market may fluctuate as a whole in the second half of the year. A-shares are in a recovery phase driven by global demand. The impact of external demand will increase, but liquidity will remain neutral. Domestic economic data show that the economy is at the top of the arc. There is a certain dislocation in the economic recovery after the epidemic. In the future, real estate and exports will be down, and consumer services and manufacturing will be up. The K-shaped recovery in the past may begin to converge. Inflation expectations have fallen, and the small-cap style is expected to continue to outperform. As global inflation expectations are still high, short-term bonds are not as cost-effective as stocks. When the overseas exit policy is further advanced, a strategic allocation window for bonds is expected to appear, and bonds may be more cost-effective at that time.
Mai Jing: Currently holding a neutral attitude towards stocks and bonds: stocks are currently valued at a moderate level, earnings growth slowed down in the second half of the year compared to the first half, and overseas liquidity is facingMidlandThe gradual impact of the savings withdrawal policy, U.S. debtinterest rateAlso by actualinterest rateOn the whole, the pressure of pushing up, the expected return of stocks is still higher than that of bonds, but compared with the volatility of stocks far higher than bonds, the risk compensation of stocks relative to bonds is not sufficient.At the current position of A-shares and interest rates, I will adopt a more prudent strategy, and the standard configuration is even slightly lowerAllotmentDebt, waiting for a more favorable opportunity to attack.
Dai Hongkun: Both the equity market and the bond market will maintain a wide range of fluctuations, and they are more optimistic about the cost-effectiveness of stock investment.We have observed that the foundation for the domestic economic recovery is still not strong, and there are repeated uncertainties; inflationary pressures are not great in the short-term.currencyPolicy constraints are limited; in terms of policy, the supervisory authorities have repeatedly spoken on multiple occasions to further ease the market’s expectations of monetary policy tightening, and liquidity is relatively loose. Such a macro environment is relatively friendly to the performance of stocks and debt assets, but we are relatively more optimistic about the stock market.
Wang Hanbo: Although the credit environment tends to shrink, the profits of listed companies are still on the rise. The overall valuation of the A-share market is reasonable, and the risk premium of equity relative to bonds is in a neutral range. Therefore, we are more optimistic about equity assets than bonds. There is no systemic risk in the A-share market. Structurally, the market has been severely divided in the past two years, and the prices of some core assets have been in the historically extremely high valuation range. However, we have also seen that there are still a large number of listed companies whose valuations are at historically low levels. We firmly believe that the market is still rich in structural opportunities. Waiting for us to dig.
Zhou Luoyan: Valuations in some areas of equity assets are relatively expensive. The inflation pressure in the later period is worth observing, and it is more of a structural opportunity. But the whole is not pessimistic. The bond market performed strongly in the second quarter, but in the second half of the year, under the background of the issuance of local government bonds, the supply of bonds was clearly rising, and the changes in commodity prices and the strength of transmission from the upstream to the midstream are still risk points worthy of attention. In the context of the mid- to long-term decline in interest rates, short-term neutrals are slightly more cautious.
In addition, there is still room for overseas equity in the short term, although the volatility will increase. Gold is slightly more conservative. US inflation expectations are at a high level and real interest rates are at a low level. It will take some time for the dollar to weaken. This is not very friendly to gold. If it rises, it will be more of an oversold rebound.
Su Jingwei: Standing at the current point in time, the price-performance ratio of stocks and bonds is in a relatively balanced position. Regarding the equity market in the second half of the year, we believe that the index level may be dominated by shocks, but there may be more opportunities for participation at the structural level. There is the possibility of marginal tightening of liquidity, and it is more complicated to superimpose the external environment. It is difficult to raise the valuation. The focus is on the growth of company performance. Therefore, we can focus on industries or sectors where interim performance exceeds expectations and is sustainable.
Regarding the bond market in the second half of the year, considering that the economic growth rate peaked month-on-month but the inflationary pressure is still there, and as the issuance of local government bonds accelerates, the demand for funds has increased significantly. The bond market is likely to fluctuate. In particular, it is necessary to remind: Pay attention to preventing credit risks in the second half of the year.
Focus on growth style funds
China Fund News reporter: Under the current market structure, how would you lay out and screen active equity funds?
Li Wenliang: In the current market environment, investors can choose a fund manager with rich experience and a relatively balanced style as a long-term allocation.
Lu Jingchang: The market style has continued to rotate this year. Relatively speaking, the sustainability of small caps is stronger. The alternation of value and growth is highly related to the impact of liquidity and the fluctuation of Treasury bond interest rates. On the one hand, it is necessary to increase the layout of small and medium-sized funds and balance the portfolio. Style, on the other hand, funds deployed in high-prosperity industries are used as a source of excess returns.
Mai Jing: It is difficult for equity to have trending and comprehensive opportunities in the short term, but there is no lack of structural opportunities. Therefore, among equity funds, there is a relative preference forStock baseThis research is solid instead of track selection, emphasizes the matching degree of the company’s true growth and valuation, has the ability to tap high-quality listed companies with small and medium market capitalization, and has active equity funds with some reverse thinking.
Dai Hongkun: In the environment of relatively loose liquidity, we are more optimistic about the performance of growth-style funds in the second half of the year. Such funds are biased towards the pharmaceutical, technology, and industrial sectors in terms of industry allocation. However, it should also be noted that the market style rotation speed is very fast this year. Considering the short-term growth of funds of this type of style is too fast, short-term shocks and even rapid adjustments will come at any time; at the same time, the increase in the first quarter is relatively good. , Cyclical style funds, there will be a chance of rebound in the second half of the year, but overall we believe that the growth style of funds is the main line.
Wang Hanbo: We will increase the layout of value-type funds with low valuation tolerance in equity funds. Focus on fund managers who have been able to adhere to their own investment methodology, adhere to the importance of valuation, and do not follow the trend in a market where the broader market has grown significantly in the past few years.
Su Jingwei: Standing at the current point in time, we are more optimistic about growth-style funds for active equity funds, so we will select some growth-style fund managers and make appropriate style deviations in the portfolio.
Optimistic about active rights, “fixed income +”, QDII, etc.
Reporter from China Fund News: Standing in the current market outlook,Cargo base, Gold, QDII, equityETFAmong other categories, which types of funds do you prefer? What is the reason?
Li Wenliang: From my personal point of view, I prefer fixed income + and active equity funds. On the one hand, there are still investment opportunities in the equity market, and looking forward to the next six months is not pessimistic. On the other hand, active funds will still have certain excess returns compared to ETFs.
Lu Jingchang: Relatively optimistic about overseas QDII and domestic equity, because the global demand recovery stage, overseas progress is later than domestic, the fundamentals are still improving, and the valuation level is equivalent to that of the domestic market. Before the liquidity turning point appears, it still has a good Configuration value. When inflation continues to be high, it is necessary to increase the priority of gold allocation.
Mai Jing: QDII funds, as a good multi-regional allocation product, can optimize the overall risk-return characteristics in the portfolio. Among them, QDII funds that focus on the Hong Kong stock market are currently due to the valuation of Hong Kong stocks.Global stock marketIt has significant advantages in horizontal comparison, and the proportion of the new economy has increased significantly in recent years, which deserves special attention.Of course you need to pay attention in the second half of the yearMidlandWill the shift in reserve policy bring Hong Kong stocks as an offshore market?Cash flowOut of pressure.
In the current environment where stocks and bonds are generally neutral and there is no lack of structural opportunities in the stock market, some high-quality fixed income + products are also better allocation varieties, such as those with strong position management capabilities and a scale of less than 1 billion.Make a newFund; a secondary level with a macro-hedging mindset that obtains more stable returns through the dynamic allocation of stocks, bonds, and convertible bondsDebt baseWait.
Dai Hongkun: On the whole, we are optimistic about stock investment opportunities and prefer active equity funds. Under this strategy, we believe that fixed income + funds will perform in the second half of the year, and the allocation of stock assets has a high probability of contributing to the fixed income + strategic funds.
Wang Hanbo: We tend to think that there is a specialization in the technical industry, and we can build a portfolio through the allocation of pure rights funds and pure debt funds as much as possible. Given that we believe that the fundamentals of the domestic economy are in good condition, and the recovery expectations of overseas economies are superimposed,MidlandThe withdrawal policy of the Reserve Bank is only a matter of timing, so the upward trend of U.S. bond interest rates will inevitably affect the domestic market. Therefore, we do not believe that gold and bonds have trending opportunities. The main focus of the second half of the year will be on the allocation of equity funds.
Zhou Luoyan: When choosing a fund, it is recommended that investors first understand the market, then understand themselves, and then go further to match suitable products to avoid blindly chasing stars and chasing ups and downs.
Su Jingwei: At the current point in time, we prefer fixed income + funds. “Fixed income +” funds, as a type of product with upward flexibility and downward control retracement, for us to build FOF portfolios, to a certain extent, can be used to stabilize portfolio net worth; for ordinary investors, “solid “Receiving +” funds can also be considered as alternatives to financial management.
(Source: China Fund News)
(Original title: Seven FOF managers who prefer growth style funds in the second half of the year talk about the layout)
(Editor in charge: DF537)
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