Original title: The short-term crisis relieves the suspense of whether the annual goal of the express delivery leader can be achieved
The short-term crisis caused by the epidemic in the express delivery industry is being lifted. The express report on the main operating indicators of express delivery services in May recently released by A-share-listed express delivery companies shows that the express delivery market is gradually recovering.
The most significant change is that in May, the business completion volume achieved a positive month-on-month growth.
According to data released by the State Post Bureau, in May, the business volume of express delivery service enterprises nationwide completed 9.24 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%; business income reached 87.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%.
Listed companies lead the industry in growth rate in May
It is undeniable that the express delivery industry was “bruised” to a certain extent in April, and the business volume declined significantly.
April,SF Holding（002352.SZ）、STO Express（002468.SZ）、YTO Express（600233.SH）、Yunda shares(002120.SZ)’s express delivery business both declined year-on-year. Among them, SF Holding and Yunda shares fell by more than 10%.
But the express delivery industry has strong resilience. With the progress of resumption of work and production, some leading enterprises quickly pulled their main business back to a positive growth curve.
According to the announcement of “Express Express” SF Holding, the total revenue of the company’s express logistics business, supply chain and international business in May increased by 45.43% year-on-year. Among them, the revenue of express logistics business reached 13.938 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.13%; the business volume was 902 million votes, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%. This means that SF Holding has reversed the three-month decline in the express logistics business. The revenue of supply chain and international business increased significantly year-on-year after combining the related business revenue of Kerry Logistics, an increase of 346.90%.
SF Holding stated that with the deepening of the domestic logistics guarantee policy, the impact of the epidemic control in some cities is gradually weakening. The company relies on end-to-end diversified logistics service capabilities to fully guarantee the transportation of residents’ living materials and last-mile delivery during the epidemic. The operating income and business volume of the company’s express logistics business increased by 21% month-on-month in April 2022.
In the “Tongda Department”, Shentong Express and YTO Express have basically stepped out of the trend of abnormal fluctuations in business volume, and their growth rates are far ahead of the industry average growth rate. Since April, Yunda Co., Ltd. has been affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, and the terminal delivery service of express delivery in certain regions has been affected to a certain extent, but it has not yet reversed the trend. However, the decline in business volume and revenue has narrowed in May.
From the data point of view, the express business income of Shentong Express, YTO Express and Yunda Co., Ltd. were 2.553 billion yuan, 3.902 billion yuan and 3.705 billion yuan respectively, up 33.03%, 30.33% and 14.04% year-on-year; the business completed volume was 1.003 billion votes respectively. , 1.554 billion votes and 1.485 billion votes, a year-on-year increase of 23.19%, 23.24% and a decrease of 7.88%.
The fading impact of the epidemic is only one of the signs of the industry’s improvement. More importantly, the vicious competition of the “price war” has weakened.
In terms of the average ticket price in May alone, the single ticket revenue of Yuantong Express, Yunda Co., Ltd. and Shentong Express after restoring the Cainiao wrapping business factor was 2.44 yuan, 2.44 yuan, and 2.43 yuan, respectively, an increase of 19.6%, 20.8%, and 17.4% year-on-year. %.
From January to May this year, the average ticket revenue of Yuantong Express, Yunda Shares and Shentong Express was 2.57 yuan, 2.52 yuan and 2.57 yuan respectively, up 14.9%, 18.9% and 12.6% year-on-year respectively.
Among them, what cannot be ignored is the policy “underpinning”, so that the industry has achieved a consensus on healthy and sound development. Following the promulgation of the “Zhejiang Express Industry Promotion Regulations” in September 2021, on January 7, 2022, the State Post Bureau publicly solicited opinions on the “Administrative Measures for the Express Delivery Market (Revised Draft)”. Enterprises and their employees shall not engage in behaviors such as “colluding with others to manipulate market prices and harming the legitimate rights and interests of other enterprises or users operating express delivery services” or “providing express delivery services at prices below cost without justifiable reasons”.
The regulatory legislation raised to the national level is expected to repair local price depressions and ensure that profits return to a benign state. The latest research report of Essence Securities also pointed out that the express logistics industry continues to recover, and the peak season of e-commerce drives demand growth. It is generally believed that the worst impact has passed, and the industry turning point has come.
Equity incentives look to long-term goals
The resilience of the express delivery market is self-evident. After experiencing low-price vicious competition to seize market share and eliminating the impact of the epidemic, express delivery companies must go all out to fulfill their commitment to the annual performance target.
At present, the competition in the express delivery industry is changing, and new players represented by Jitu are launching a powerful impact on the old players. The company disclosed at a major customer exchange meeting held recently that the average daily ticket volume of the entire network in May has exceeded 40 million. In this way, the business volume of Jitu Express in May will exceed 1.24 billion votes. This also means that after the acquisition of the domestic express business of Best Group, the market share of Jitu Express has expanded significantly, and has surpassed the veteran player of the “Tongda Department”, Shentong Express.
In the highly competitive express delivery industry, listed companies invariably inject “stimulants” into their employees through equity incentives. However, there is only half of the time left until the company fulfills this year’s performance commitments.
The first unlocking period of Yunda’s fourth restricted stock incentive plan will expire. The conditions for its equity incentives in 2022 to meet the standards are that the business volume increases by more than 30% or the revenue growth is not lower than the average level of its peers.
SF Holding also launched an equity incentive plan for over 1,000 employees while disclosing its first quarterly report. Its “ultimate goal” is that revenue in 2025 will double the amount completed in 2021.
Judging from the exercise conditions, the exercise conditions of SF Holding’s equity incentive this time have high expectations for operating income and net profit margin. The plan shows that in the four exercise periods from 2022 to 2025, the operating income is required to be not less than 270 billion yuan, 315 billion yuan, 370 billion yuan, 435 billion yuan, or the net profit rate attributable to the parent is not less than 2.1%, 2.6%, 2.9%, 3.3%, one of the two conditions must be met. Its operating income in 2021 is 207.2 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is about 4.27 billion yuan, and the profit rate attributable to the parent is about 2.06%.
In order to further stimulate the sustainable development of the company, YTO Express has launched the second phase of the stock option incentive plan. The assessment targets for the first, second and third exercise periods are the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2022, 2023 and 2024. Not less than 3 billion yuan, 3.8 billion yuan, and 4.6 billion yuan respectively; or based on the business volume in 2021, the business volume growth rate in 2022, 2023, and 2024 is not lower than the industry average growth rate.
In contrast, the “1 yuan purchase” employee stock ownership plan launched by Shentong Express, which is still catching up with the former, seems to have the expectation of “everything to be done”.
The goal of STO Express’s equity incentives in 2022 is that “the growth rate of business volume is not lower than the growth rate of the express delivery industry in the current year” or “the net profit returned to the parent after deducting non-deductibles in 2022 will turn losses into profits”, and achieve either of the two. In 2023, it can also be realized that “the growth rate of express delivery business volume is not lower than the growth rate of the express industry in the current year” or “the net profit returned to the parent after deducting non-deductible items is not less than 500 million yuan” in the same year. .
After the short-term crisis, how the express delivery company will respond to the business goals set earlier with practical actions and realize the long-term business strategy remains to be tested by the market.
(Author: Fei Xinyi Editor: Zhang Weixian)
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