Home » Since the reform of the new inquiry system, more than 30% of new stocks broke A-shares on the first day to achieve a new ecological gradual rationality

Since the reform of the new inquiry system, more than 30% of new stocks broke A-shares on the first day to achieve a new ecological gradual rationality

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Under the general background of the registration system, the reform of the inquiry mechanism has acceleratedNew crotchThe marketization process of issuance pricing.With the increase in the price of new stocks, earning the price difference between the primary and secondary markets is no longer a risk-free return, and the market game has become more balanced. The myth of “new stocks must be earned” has been broken, and A sharesMake a newThe ecology has quietly changed.

Statistics show that since the reform of the new inquiry system, as of November 3, 27 new shares have been listed. From the perspective of market performance, 9 shares broke on the first day of listing, with a break ratio of more than 30%. IPOs have been broken one after another, and the investment strategies and ideas of many investors, including individuals and institutions, must also keep pace with the times.

  Individual investors:

  If you feel wrong, you may abandon the purchase

“It was the opening of the early trading and broke the issue. I lost nearly 3,000 yuan in one sign.” Mr. Lin, an investor who rarely hit the new shares, won the shares of Hualan this time. This makes Mr. Lin a little confused.

Mr. Lin’s case is a microcosm of the recent increase in new shares in the A-share market.

October 28,National Cheng Kung UniversityListed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board asLiaoning ChengdaSubsidiary, is also the world’s leading rabies vaccine company,National Cheng Kung UniversityThe listing can be described as a lot of eye-catching, and it is a “big meat fortune” in the eyes of many investors.

However, on the first day of listing,National Cheng Kung UniversityIt burst into a big upset and fell below the issue price of 110 yuan at the opening.It closed at 80 yuan, a decrease of 27.27%, and even dragged down the holdingshareholderLiaoning ChengdaIt fell 10% that day.

Rongmei shares, a new stock listed on the Growth Enterprise Market on the same day, also suffered a break. The opening price of Rongmei shares was 30 yuan, a decrease of 9.5% from the issue price. In the end, Rongmei shares closed at 28.79 yuan, plummeting 13.18% on the first day of listing.

According to reporter’s statistics, based on the date of offering, there are a total of 27 new shares that have been listed after September 18. Of these 27 new stocks, 9 of them broke on the first day of listing, and the ratio of shares on the first day of listing has exceeded 30%.

Some of the new stocks that were not issued on the first day of listing, the follow-up performance was not satisfactory. According to the latest stock price calculation, of the 27 new stocks mentioned above, 13 stocks broke, and the ratio of breaks was close to 50%.

Judging from the composition of the listed sectors of the 13 new stocks that are still under issue, there are 6 new stocks on the Growth Enterprise Market and 6 new stocks on the Sci-tech Innovation Board, and 1 new stock on the Main Board.

The break of this round of new shares began on October 22China Self Technology, And then broke new shares appeared one after another. For a long period of time before this, the listing of new stocks was bound to rise, and the launch of new shares was almost a risk-free investment. With the implementation of the registration system, reform of the IPO inquiry system, and fluctuations in market sentiment, the myth of “new shares must be earned” has been broken.

Under the influence of the break of some new shares, the earnings of the unbroken new shares are also declining. According to statistics, since the implementation of the credit subscription system for new shares, the average value of the reference gains from the single signing of new shares has exceeded 20,000 yuan. However, the above-mentioned 27 new stocks have seen a sharp drop in the single-sign reference earnings, with the average value being less than 4,000 yuan, and the median value is only a little over 2,000 yuan.

The overall rate of return on the winning of new shares has dropped, and even losses have occurred, which has also discouraged investors’ enthusiasm for new shares. In the past, individual investors who were accustomed to listing new stocks online have also tended to be cautious.

An investor who has persisted in listing new shares for many years told reporters that in the past, he was almost “no-brained” to purchase new shares. Look again at that time. If you win the lottery and feel wrong, you may give up the payment.”

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However, if the payment is waived more than a certain number of times, it will affect the subsequent renewal. According to Article 13 of the Measures for the Administration of Securities Issuance and Underwriting, offline and online investors who subscribe for new shares, convertible corporate bonds, and exchangeable corporate bonds shall pay the subscription funds on time and in full after they have obtained the allotment. When online investors have failed to pay in full after winning the lottery three times in 12 consecutive months, they are not allowed to participate in the subscription of new shares, convertible corporate bonds, and exchangeable corporate bonds within 6 months.

Another investor told reporters that recently they are still applying for new shares at the usual pace.But he also said that he would pay more attention toConvertible bondHit new opportunities.

A series of purchase data recently disclosed shows that investors’ enthusiasm for renewing has cooled down, which has been high in recent years.

Statistics show that on the ChiNext, the number of effective online subscriptions for new stocks on ChiNext in September this year was generally around 15 million. However, recently, the number of effective online subscriptions for new shares on the Growth Enterprise Market has dropped significantly.

byQiangrui TechnologyAs an example, the number of effective online subscription users has fallen to 12.4543 million, which is a drop of more than 2 million from the average level of new stocks on the Growth Enterprise Market in September, a drop of nearly 20%.

Sci-tech innovation board and motherboardIPO subscriptionA similar situation has occurred.New shares on the Sci-tech Innovation BoardJuyi TechnologyThe number of effective online purchase users is only 5.0967 million, which is about 1 million lower than the recent average, and the decline is also close to 20%. In the previous two months, the total number of effective online subscriptions for new shares on the Sci-tech Innovation Board was around 6 million. On the motherboard,Zhenyang DevelopmentThe number of effective online purchase users is 15.3711 million, which is more than 1 million less than the recent average.

However, the market itself also has an automatic adjustment mechanism. After the continuous emergence of new shares, the recently listed new shares began to strengthen again. Among them, the number of new shares listed on November 3 rose by 141.5%. This is the first day after a lapse of more than a few days. . The rebound in the market has also rekindled investors’ confidence.

  Institutional investors: Inquiry participation has declined

“We now have to research first and then launch new stocks, unlike in the past, all new stocks were sold.” Wu Liangqun, founding partner of Shenzhen Qianhai Dingye Investment Development Co., Ltd., told reporters.

In Wu Liangqun’s view, the current phenomenon of new shares breaking may become a “watershed.” He pointed out, “This phenomenon is very enlightening for us. If we do not have good industry research capabilities in the future, and we do not have enough ability to price and analyze the target, it will be difficult to make new investments.”

  Dongxing SecuritiesAnalystGao Zhiwei said that after the implementation of the newHit new incomeDecreased significantly. According to its calculations, under the conditions of an account size of 200 million yuan and an 80% hit rate, category A investors participated in the GEM offline launch, and the cumulative return from October 1 to 28 was only 0.13%, while 1-9 The monthly average rate of return for the month was 0.39%; Class A investors participated in the off-net launch of the Sci-tech Innovation Board, and the cumulative rate of return from October 1 to 28 was only 0.07%, while the average monthly rate of return from January to September was 0.45 %. Gao Zhiwei also pointed out that with the decline in revenue, the offline oversubscription multiple has plummeted, and the popularity of new products has weakened.

As the overall income level of Dashing has declined, institutional investors participating in offline Dashing have also become cautious.

The reporter made statistics on the participation of institutions before and after the new regulations, and found that public offeringsfundSocial securityThe participation of representatives of fund-based institutions has declined.

Statistics show that since the revision of the inquiry system, a total of 3,280 public funds and 54 social security funds have participated in an average of 23 and 24 initial placements, respectively, accounting for 57.5% and 60% of the number of new stock inquiries during the same period. This ratio was 68% and 78% respectively in the three months before the revision of the new inquiry regulations.

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Debon Securities analyst Wu Kaida believes that the first- and second-tier pricing is broken, and research capability replaces the finalist rate as the new distribution logic. Under the current rules, when new shares are about to break, investors will reconsider their own margin of safety and make quotations, thereby breaking the free-riding quotation strategy and rebalancing the game.

  CITIC SecuritiesAccording to the research department, after the revision of the inquiry system, the average market gains from new quotations have declined, and the difference in quotation rates among institutions has increased. Institutions with stronger research and pricing capabilities have benefited even more after the revision of the new enquiry regulations.

  Behind the successive breaks of new shares

Many parties believe that behind the IPO break, there is the impact of the current weak market conditions, and it is also affected by the adjustment of the inquiry system.

In an interview with a reporter from the Securities Times, Wang Jiyue, a veteran investment banker, believes that both market sentiment and the impact of mechanism adjustments exist. Investors believe that the price is too high, and they will choose to speculate cautiously, and there will be continuous breaks. Wang Jiyue believes that under the new regulations, the inquiring agency still holds the inertial quotation of Boss shortlisted. Due to the increase in the excluding the upper limit, the quotation of the agency has also increased. He believes that the new stocks can rise several times before, and the high quotation will not be risky. But there is a risk.

A private equity firm interviewed by reporters in Shenzhen believes that the recent break of some new stocks can be attributed to three major reasons: First, the change in the inquiry rules, the actual high price elimination ratio is about 1%, resulting in an increase in the pricing center of new shares; second, under the new regulations, Issuers and underwriters are more willing to break through the “four values”, thereby increasing the scale of fundraising and charging more underwriting fees; third, there is a certain expected difference in the valuation of some companies between the primary and secondary markets. When the pricing of new shares in the secondary market fails to fully reflect the company’s risk factors, the secondary market does not accept the price of new shares.

Judging from recent performance, the A-share market’s popularity has declined, which is reflected in the narrow fluctuations or even declines of the main indexes, while the market’s hot spots are relatively lacking, and the popularity is not booming.

Regarding rule adjustments, on September 18, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges issued newly revised implementation measures for stock issuance and underwriting. The biggest change after the implementation of the new rules is the reduction of the high quotation removal ratio of offline institutional investors, from no less than 10% to no more than 3%. In addition, it has also cancelled the link between the “four low” pricing and the “postponement”. arrange.

  CITIC SecuritiesThe Research Department pointed out that the new rules for price inquiry mainly promote the effective functioning of market-based issuance mechanisms from two aspects: optimizing pricing mechanism arrangements and strengthening supervision of quotation behavior. After the revision of the new regulations, the effective quotation range has been significantly expanded, the quotation finalist rate has dropped significantly, the pricing center has moved up, and the winning rate center has increased.

  CITIC SecuritiesThe data shows that before the revision of the inquiry system, the effective quotation interval of the Sci-tech Innovation Board and the ChiNext were 0.4% and 0.6% respectively; after the revision of the inquiry system, the quotations were more dispersed and the effective quotation interval was significantly expanded. According to his observations, in the first month after the implementation of the new regulations, the effective quotation range of the Sci-tech Innovation Board and ChiNext has expanded to over 20% and 16% respectively. In addition, from the shortlisted situation, the high-price elimination ratio is about 1%.

The feedback of quotations to the pricing of new shares shows that the pricing center has risen, and many new shares have even broken through the lower of the “four values”.A reporter from the Securities Times found that recently there have beenHigh-speed rail electricZhongke WeizhiYum SmartJiusheng ElectricCorfu Medical, Rongmei shares, Shenzhen City Communications and many other companies, the issue price is higher than the “four values” which is the lower value.

The recent research viewpoints of Huaxin Securities also believe that the adjustment of the IPO inquiry rules has changed the IPO inquiry game rules, leading to a higher IPO pricing center. Reviewing the history, it is found that the tightening of the liquidity margin often catalyzes the concentration of new stocks to break.At the same time, from a micro perspective, some new stocks fail to reflect the unfavorable changes in fundamentals, leading to pressure on stock prices. It is expected that the differentiation will continue in the future.Stock baseHave a deeper understanding and more precise pricing.

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  Contingent investors withdraw

Will the current IPO breakout situation be a long-term phenomenon? Many interviewed market participants said that the break-up should be a short-term phenomenon, but in the long run, the return of new shares will return rationally, and it is difficult to reproduce the undefeated new shares.

Wang Jiyue said that after consecutive breaks, the institutional quotations will be cautious and the issue price will fall relatively, but there is still a break risk. It is not normal for new stocks to be unbeaten, and it is reasonable to have ups and downs.

Wu Kaida said that it is a good thing to return to rationality and break the issue, which reflects the market-based pricing requirements under the registration system. This will break the undefeated mindset of new stocks, curb unreasonable behaviors in speculating new stocks to a certain extent, and promote the rational return of new stock returns. As a result, IPO pricing will change from a game of behavior to a judgment of the true value of new stocks.

Wu Liangqun said that IPO break is a normal phenomenon in mature capital markets. From the perspective of the larger background and longer cycle, the recent break-up of new shares in A shares is actually closely related to the reform of the registration system. The impact of the registration system is slowly emerging. Under this background, A shares are gradually moving towards marketization and internationalization. In the past, some “phased” phenomena in the market have also been changed from the root cause, and the break of new shares is one of them. .

Data shows that in the U.S. and Hong Kong stock markets, IPO breaks are very common. The first day, week, and month of the U.S. stock market’s IPO break rate are roughly 30%~35%. In the middle of this year, more than companies listed in Hong Kong 50% break rate.Star companyBaiduThe break of the group is one of the cases.

The market environment for new shares has changed significantly. How should investors adapt to this change? Wang Jiyue believes that investors will inevitably face risks if they close their eyes and start new ideas. New listings also depend on the company. Don’t bet on making money on the first day of listing.For example, he said that the break last yearJianlong Micro-Na, If the first day of blogging, it must be a loss. Since holding it, the stock price has risen more than three times.

“Focusing more on the areas we are familiar with is our next strategy.” Wu Liangqun said that for buyer organizations, there will be more and more available targets in the future, and buyer organizations need to be more rational and prudent.

Wu Kaida expects that the first- and second-tier spreads of new stocks are no longer risk-free returns, and the distribution method of returns is no longer the level of the finalist rate. The pricing method that focuses on research and game will be effectively improved, and the distribution of returns will return to research capabilities.

Wu Kaida explained that at present, investors participating in Dashing are mainly divided into three types: First, stocks are long active equity and index enhancement. Increased returns for Dingxin cannot cover fluctuations in the net value of the bottom position. The number of institutions in this category changes. The elasticity of income changes is smaller; the second is the “fixed income +” method, where new income is part of the contribution of active investment income. The number of this type of institutions changes, and the elasticity of new changes is moderate; the third is stock index futures and securities lending. This type of hedging is generally for investors pursuing absolute returns. Changes in the number of institutions in this category have the greatest flexibility against changes in new returns.

Wu Kaida predicts that in the future, the expected rate of return of Dashing’s income will fall to less than 5%. The absolute return investors who use Dashing as the main source of investment income will consider opportunity costs or choose to withdraw gradually.

(Source: Securities Times)

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