Source: Pioneer Futures Author: Pioneer Futures
Research report text
In terms of price:The price of three-yuan live pigs outside Henan remained stable at 24,300 yuan/ton on a weekly basis. The price of 15kg three-yuan piglets in Henan Kaifeng fell 0.38% to 52.5 yuan/kg, and the price of two-yuan sows fell 0.25% to 36.41 yuan/kg. The price of eliminated sows fell weekly 3.96% to 17.7 yuan/kg.
The price of white strips rose by 0.03% to 30.95 yuan/kg. The November contract price fell 0.13% to 23,215 yuan/ton, and the January contract price rose 0.33% to 21,485 yuan/ton. The March contract fell 0.97% to 19370 yuan / ton.
In terms of price difference:The November contract discount was 1,085 yuan/ton, and the basis became stronger. The January contract discount was 2,815 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened. The price difference between the November contract and the January contract was 1730 yuan/ton, which was 1830 yuan/ton last week. The price difference between 1-3 is 2115 yuan / ton, compared with 1855 yuan / ton last week.
On the supply side:In the short term, the weight of live pigs increased this week. In the medium and long term, the number of reproductive sows in the sample enterprises in October was 503.51 million, an increase of 2.8% from the previous month. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, there were 43.62 million breeding sows in September, an increase of 0.88% from the previous month, and the production capacity increased in September. With the recovery of pig breeding profits, production capacity increased.
Demand side:The slaughter start rate increased by 0.75 percentage points from last week. The gross profit of slaughtering and processing this week was 35.5 yuan/head, which was 12 yuan/head lower than last week. The fresh sales rate of key slaughtering enterprises was 93.14%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from last week.
Inventory:The storage capacity rate of frozen products of domestic key slaughtering enterprises was 17.57%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from last week.
In terms of profit:The profit of self-propagation and self-raising is 805 yuan/head, and the profit last week was 913 yuan/head. The profit of purchased piglets was 762 yuan/head, and the profit last week was 878 yuan/head. Breeding profits fell for 4 consecutive weeks.
Operation suggestion:In terms of supply, in the short term, the profit of breeding will drop, the motivation for secondary fattening will decrease, and the slaughter will increase. In the long run, the stock of fertile sows is at a high level. There is no shortage of live pigs in the short, medium and long term, and the supply is abundant. On the demand side, slaughtering is profitable (profits have decreased week-on-week), and the utilization rate of slaughtering has increased. However, the delivery of goods at the terminal is not smooth, and there is no active storage of frozen products. In terms of operation, maintain a bearish thinking. Enterprises took advantage of the trend to sell, and the disk rallies were shorted. In terms of price difference, try 1-3 reversals.
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