Research report text
1. Market review
domesticsoybean mealFollowing the United States beans continue to run weakly. The main soybean meal futures contract M2305 opened at 3,861 yuan/ton and closed at 3,831 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton, or 1.52%, with the highest price at 3,874 yuan/ton, the lowest price at 3,817 yuan/ton, and the settlement price at 3,843 yuan/ton. The total trading volume was 621,264 lots, and the position was 1,325,558 lots, an increase of -33,282 lots.
2. News situation
1. Today’s domestic soybean meal spot quotation (yuan/ton) (data source: My Agricultural Products Network)
2. National Grain and Oils Information Center: Soybean meal is in sufficient spot supply, and enterprises can purchase it as needed
News from the National Grain and Oils Information Center on January 4: Last week, the operating rate of domestic oil plants continued to remain high.Monitoring showed that last week domesticsoybeanThe crushing volume was 2 million tons, a decrease of 110,000 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the same period last month, a year-on-year increase of 410,000 tons, and an increase of 230,000 tons from the average of the same period in the past three years. Imported soybeans have been concentrated in Hong Kong since late November 2022. It is expected that the soybean crush volume this week will remain at around 2 million tons for the seventh consecutive week.
Oil mills crushed less than expected, and soybean inventories rebounded. Monitoring shows that as of the end of last week, the commercial inventory of soybeans imported by major oil factories across the country was 3.91 million tons, an increase of 70,000 tons over the previous week, an increase of 420,000 tons over the same period last month, and an increase of 780,000 tons over the same period last year. Recently, the crushing volume of soybeans has remained high, and the recovery rate of soybean stocks has been relatively slow.
Soybean crush remained high and soymeal stocks rose for a sixth straight week. On January 2, the soybean meal inventory of major domestic oil factories was 560,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons over the same period last week, an increase of 280,000 tons over the same period last month, a decrease of 20,000 tons over the same period of the previous year, and a decrease of 100,000 tons over the same period of the past three years tons. This week, the start-up level of oil plants is expected to remain at about 2 million tons. The spot supply of soybean meal is abundant, and enterprises can produce as needed. It is expected that the inventory of soybean meal will continue to increase.
3. U.S. private exporters report sales of 124,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations
The USDA’s single-day export sales report on Wednesday showed private exporters reported sales of 124,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in 2022/23.
4. INMET: Rainfall in Brazil’s main agricultural producing areas will be below average in January
Brazil’s National Meteorological Institute (INMET) said that in January 2023, Brazil’s main agricultural regions may not see significant rainfall, which means that the weather is still unfavorable.Dry weather in southern Brazil has resulted in part of the first seasoncornYield suffers.
INMET forecasts erratic rains in most parts of southern Brazil in January, especially in the central part of Rio Grande do Sul state, which will negatively impact soil moisture and negatively affect crops in a sensitive growing period, such as soybeans and first-season corn.
5. National Grain and Oils Information Center: January 2023 “Monthly Report on the Supply and Demand of the Oil and Oils Market”
News from the National Grain and Oils Information Center on January 5: On January 5, the National Grain and Oils Information Center released the “Monthly Report on the Supply and Demand of the Oil and Oils Market” in January, predicting that my country’s soybean supply in 2022/23 will increase by 115.29 million tons, of which domestic soybeans The output is 20.29 million tons, and the soybean import volume is 95 million tons. The estimated annual crushed oil consumption of soybeans is 97.1 million tons, an increase of 4.4 million tons or 4.7% year-on-year, including 1.9 million tons of domestic soybeans; the estimated edible and industrial consumption of soybeans is 16.55 million tons, an increase of 450,000 tons year-on-year, and the annual soybean supply and demand balance 740,000 tons.
It is predicted that the new supply of soybean meal in my country in 2022/23 will be 76.31 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.46 million tons, of which soybean meal output will be 76.27 million tons. It is estimated that the total annual domestic soybean meal consumption will be 75.23 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.63 million tons, of which feed consumption will be 73.6 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.6 million tons. The export volume of soybean meal is expected to be 900,000 tons, and the annual domestic soybean meal supply and demand balance will be 180,000 tons.
3. Overview
In the international market, the growth status of Brazilian soybeans remains normal, and the production prospects are relatively optimistic. Argentine soybeans have not yet been planted, and rainfall over the weekend eased some concerns, but the drought in the country’s farmland is not over. South American soybeans have gradually entered a critical period of weather, and the US soybean market is in a typical weather market.
In the domestic market, judging from the current situation of soybean arrivals in Hong Kong and the start-up of oil factories, soybean meal stocks continue to rise, and the domestic soybean meal supply situation is improving. The accumulation effect of soybean meal is expected to continue.
With the gradual recovery of domestic economic activities, feed farming companies and traders have increased their demand for stocking before the Spring Festival, which has strengthened the support for soybean meal prices. The market outlook will focus on the arrival of domestic soybeans, the weather conditions in South America and the inventory of soybean meal.
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