Original title: Spot gold confirms 1900 mark pressure, FED policy shifts to reveal new atmosphere
Summary
[Spotgoldconfirmedthepressureonthe1900markandtheFEDpolicyshiftedtorevealanewatmosphere]On June 3, spot gold retreated significantly, confirming the pressure on the 1900 mark; the US dollar index rebounded, but continued to struggle near the 90 mark. Traders are waiting for a batch of US economic data, including non-agricultural, which may set the tone for the Fed meeting later this month. Fed officials have previously hinted at discussing cuts in easing. The Fed also announced that it will gradually release the corporate bonds purchased during the severe period of the epidemic-another sign that the epidemic measures are coming to an end. (Huitong.com)
On Thursday (June 3), spot gold retreated significantly, confirming the pressure at the 1900 mark; the US dollar index rebounded, but continued to struggle near the 90 mark.Traders are waiting for a batch including non-agriculturalU.S. economic data, Maybe later this monthMidlandThe conference set the tone.
At 19:47 Beijing time, spot gold fell 0.74% to US$1894.30 per ounce; COMEX gold futuresMain forceThe contract fell 0.71% to US$1896.4 per ounce; the US dollar index rose 0.13% to 90.022.
MidlandReserve: Will gradually release the corporate bonds purchased during the severe period of the epidemic
MidlandReserve officials have previously hinted at discussing cuts to easing. The Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that it will gradually release the corporate bonds purchased during the severe period of the epidemic-another sign that the epidemic measures are about to end.
The Fed says it sells secondary market companiesCreditThe assets held by the tool (Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility, SMCCF) will be “gradual”.But a Fed official said that the decision to reduce corporate credit arrangementscurrencyThe policy has nothing to do.
U.S. AprilCPIA year-on-year increase of 4.2%, the highest level since September 2008; core CPI excluding food and energy prices also rose to 3%, the highest level since 2006. The annual rate of the core PCE price index in the United States in April was 3.10%, a new high since July 1992.
Investors had previously bet that as the world recovers from the new crown epidemic, the dollar will fall.But they have recently reacted to the unexpectedly strong rebound of the U.S. economy, whether they willinterest rateThe key assumption of keeping low poses a threat and is nervous.
This sentiment has discouraged speculators from increasing short positions significantly in recent weeks. This put the brakes on the seemingly endless downward trend a month ago. In the past two weeks, the US dollar index has generally seen a see-saw around the 90 mark, which seems to have found strong support here.
When will the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy normalize?
On a global scale, as other central banks begin to discuss and even formulate timetables for raising interest rates, the Fed is becoming a latecomer. The next Fed meeting will be held in June, and investors will pay attention to whether policymakers are sending signals to slow down bond purchases.
Federal Reserve officials stated in the latest Beige Book that although the U.S. economy faces a series of problems such as supply chain troubles, recruitment difficulties, and price increases, the recovery is still accelerating in the weeks from early May to the end of the month. Officials pointed out: “The increase in vaccination rates and the relaxation of social distancing measures have had a positive impact on the economy.”
However, Fed officials reported that the recovery of a US$20 trillion economy to rapid growth poses a challenge in itself. “For many companies, it is still difficult to recruit new workers…”. The report also stated that prices are rising, and based on the current situation, they may continue to rise. “Looking ahead, contacts expect to face rising costs in the next few months, and they will increase selling prices.”
This Beige Book helps to set the framework for the upcoming June meeting of the Federal Reserve.Officials will decide how and when they will start to reduce the $120 billion in debt purchases each month, and raise them to nearly zero.interest rateStart the debate. These measures are implemented to alleviate the economic shock caused by the pandemic.
Fed officials said it may take several months for them to clearly interpret economic conditions. The US economy is currently recovering, but it has encountered some speed bumps in the process of acceleration. In general, companies seem to be unable to meet the ever-increasing demand for their goods and services, and consumers seem to be ready to spend more.
Michael Armbruster, managing partner of Altavest, stated:“The market is trying to figure out whether inflation is really’temporary’ as the (Fed) said. If the market starts to think that the rise in inflation is not temporary, then U.S. Treasury yields may soar, and gold may face a downturn again. pressure.”
The market is out of stock, the company is short
The US ADP employment data will be released at 20:15 Beijing time on Thursday, which is expected to add 650,000 jobs, down from 742,000 in the previous month. The ADP report is sometimes regarded as the touchstone of official non-agricultural employment data to be released on Friday.
After the US April non-agricultural employment data was far worse than expected, the market has been worried. If the May data is not as expected, it will increase the pressure on the US dollar; if the data is optimistic, it may support the US dollar. The market generally predicts that non-agricultural jobs will increase by 655,000 in May.
There is evidence that shortages are widespread in both workers and commodities, and the Beige Book regards it as a major cause of rising prices. If the situation reflected in the Beige Book is a signal, the improvement of the economic situation has not yet translated into a strong demand for credit by consumers and businesses.
The Federal Reserve and US government officials generally predict that as the pandemic gradually passes and the economy restarts, the current labor and product shortage will ease. In particular, the shortage of workers is considered a sequelae of the most severe period of the epidemic. Workers are weighing between practical considerations such as child care and unemployment subsidies and the need to return to work in the end.
Singapore Overseas ChinesebankThe strategist said:“Before the release of (U.S. civilian jobs on Thursday) and Friday’s U.S. non-agricultural employment report, the market is basically in a see-saw state. The next event risk may shake the Fed’s expectations. We still tend to say that the Fed’s speech will not ultimately So dovish, and finally give a firmer recognition of the economic recovery (and) thus provide a positive impetus for the dollar.”
Half of U.S. states will end a Biden policy early
The controversy over unemployment benefits in the United States is about to be tested. Half of the U.S. states (25) have each announced plans to end multi-billion-dollar unemployment benefits early, saying no to President Biden’s key epidemic response. These states are all led by Republican governors.
Affected by the epidemic, the federal government pays an extra $300 to the unemployed every week. This payment has become one of the focal points of Washington’s political struggle on how to best guide the country out of economic troughs. Commercial lobby groups believe that the relief measures mean that people are rejecting good jobs and the company cannot find the employees it needs to reopen.
But the Biden administration, Democrats, workers, activists and someAnalystIt is believed that a number of unresolved issues hinder people’s participation in employment, including lack of childcare services, persistent fear of infection, and low wages.
White House Press Secretary Psaki on Wednesday: “We believe that workers need time to restore confidence in workplace safety, re-establish childcare, school and commuting arrangements, and complete vaccinations.” She said last month that the White House would not try to prevent states from cutting special unemployment benefits. White House officials also emphasized that unemployed people must accept suitable jobs offered.
White House officials worry that ending the program prematurely before the mass vaccination is complete may hit the salaried population and the US economy, which is still struggling to recover. Unemployed workers may still be eligible for regular state unemployment benefits. But these remedies vary greatly.
Due to the uncertainty of the Fed’s future monetary policy stance, and the fact that the fight against the epidemic has not yet achieved a decisive victory (only more than 41% of the US population of 328 million are fully vaccinated), the gold bulls’ interest has faded recently.
(Source: Huitong.com)
(Editor in charge: DF537)
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