Original title: Steady recovery shows resilience and long-term improvement has support-looking at China’s economic trends from the third quarter
Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, October 18th. Topic: Steady recovery shows resilience and long-term improvement has support-looking at China’s economic trends from the third quarter
Xinhua News Agency reporter
The hard work is still strong, regardless of the east and west winds.
After multiple tests such as the epidemic situation and flood conditions, coupled with the rising base, China’s economy grew by 4.9% year-on-year in the third quarter of this year, and the two-year average growth rate was 4.9%. The growth rate has slowed down. However, from a cumulative perspective, the first three quarters increased by 9.8% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 5.2%, which is still stable within a reasonable range.
Looking at the world, under the influence of the epidemic, China’s economy has continued to recover steadily, and the fundamentals of steady and long-term improvement have not changed. It is still a stabilizing force leading the global economic recovery.
China’s economy demonstrates resilience
Since the second half of this year, the growth rate of some indicators of China’s economy has slowed down, and there are many concerns from the outside world.
Gao Ruidong, chief macro economist of Everbright Securities, said that in the third quarter of last year, China’s epidemic was basically under control, and production and life were the first to resume. The year-on-year economic growth rate rebounded to 4.9%. The increase in the base number is an important reason why China’s quarter-on-year economic growth has been “high before and low” since the beginning of this year.
“After entering the third quarter, domestic and international risks and challenges have increased, the global epidemic has spread and spread, the recovery momentum of the world economy has slowed, international commodity prices have been operating at high levels, and parts of the country have been affected by the multiple impacts of the epidemic and floods, and the pressure of economic transformation and adjustment has been somewhat Appears.” said Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics and Director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department.
To observe the economies of major powers, one must look at the overall situation and discern the general trend. It is necessary to correctly view the “shape” of local data fluctuations, and to accurately grasp the “trend” of the overall economy.
Fu Linghui said that cumulatively, the GDP in the first three quarters increased by 9.8% year-on-year, which was still higher than the expected target. The main macro indicators were generally within a reasonable range, and there were no shortage of bright spots in the economic operation.
Employment prices are basically stable-10.45 million new jobs were created in cities and towns across the country, 95.0% of the annual target; the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.6% year-on-year, which was lower than the expected target of about 3%;
The production situation is stable and improving-the added value of agriculture (planting) increased by 3.4% year-on-year, an average increase of 3.6% in two years; the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 11.8% year-on-year, and an average increase of 6.4% in two years;
Foreign trade and foreign investment continued to improve-the total value of imports and exports of goods increased by 22.7% year-on-year, and the actual use of foreign capital in the first eight months increased by 22.3% year-on-year;
Domestic demand continued to recover-investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) increased by 7.3% year-on-year, an average increase of 3.8% in two years; total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 16.4% year-on-year, an average increase of 3.9% in two years;
The latest issue of the World Economic Outlook Report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows that the global economy is expected to continue to recover in 2021 but the momentum is slowing down. The annual growth rate is expected to be 5.9%, but the Chinese economy will grow by 8%.
“Major international organizations expect China’s economy to maintain a relatively high growth rate of about 8% in 2021. This is not only higher than the global average growth rate, but also higher than the growth rate of major economies, reflecting the international community’s optimistic view of China’s economic growth prospects. “Fu Linghui said.
Seize the opportunity to release vitality in China’s economy
Although the growth rate of some major economic indicators has slowed down, some subdivision data show that in the first three quarters, China’s economic restructuring continued to be optimized, development quality and efficiency continued to improve, and development momentum was steadily enhanced.
Better economic structure——
In the first three quarters, China’s manufacturing industry accounted for 27.4% of added value, an increase of 1.1 percentage points over the same period last year. The added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 20.1% year-on-year, faster than all industries above designated size; the final consumption contribution rate was 64.8 %, an increase of 3.1 percentage points over the first half of the year. Among them, upgraded consumption and investment in high-tech industries grew rapidly.
In the face of risks and challenges, more and more companies are demanding motivation from innovation, seizing opportunities to change lanes and overtaking, building core advantages, and firmly holding the initiative in development.
In Suzhou, Jiangsu, there are few workers in the huge production workshop of the textile and garment enterprise Jingyi Group. The threads ejected by the equipment form a “vortex”, and the yarn is born.
“In the face of multiple impacts such as rising raw material prices and rising labor costs, the company has stepped up research and development of’vortex spinning’ technology, increased spinning speed, researched and developed recycled fibers, and increased product added value.” said Chen Lu, general manager of Jingyi Group, the top three In the quarter, the group achieved sales of 1.645 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%.
The rapid growth of new kinetic energy——
In the first three quarters, the output of China’s new energy vehicles and industrial robots increased by 172.5% and 57.8% year-on-year respectively; the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 15.2% year-on-year, accounting for 23.6% of the total retail sales of consumer goods.
“New kinetic energy is an important force supporting the sustained and stable recovery of China’s economy. China has increased its investment in innovation and catching up with the world’s frontier countries. In the future, it will surely form a new competitive advantage in the corresponding industrial chain.” Said Li Chengjian, deputy director of the Second Research Office.
In the third quarter, China’s industrial capacity utilization rate was 77.1%, which was at a relatively good level in the same period in recent years; in the first three quarters, investment in education and health increased by 10.4% and 31.4% year-on-year, respectively, faster than the growth of all investment… , China’s economic “advance” is evident, and the foundation for economic “stability” will be further consolidated.
However, it is undeniable that the recent rise in commodity prices in China’s economic operation, the prominent contradiction between energy supply and demand, and the impact of the industrial chain supply chain have further exposed the long-standing structural contradictions in the process of economic transformation and upgrading.
“China’s economy is in a critical period of transition to high-quality development. Although short-term emergency policies for slowing growth can have immediate effects, in the long run, the policy should be focused on a package of policies that promote long-term and healthy economic development. Structural policies include improving total factor productivity through reforming the investment and financing system,” said Chen Yuyu, a professor in the Department of Applied Economics at the Guanghua School of Management, Peking University.
China’s economy bravely breaks new ground
Under multiple tests, we must strengthen our confidence in development, and we must remain sober in the steady recovery.
Looking at the fourth quarter and early next year, the risks and challenges facing the Chinese economy have become more complex and severe: the global epidemic is still full of variables, the inflation level of major economies continues to rise, international commodity prices are operating at high levels, and the problem of inadequate and inadequate domestic economic development remains It highlights that the foundation of recovery needs to be further consolidated.
The more difficult the challenge, the more steadfast you must do your own affairs well. We must not relax our efforts to normalize the epidemic prevention and control. We must focus on long-term reforms, break development bottlenecks, open up momentum, expand development space, and continuously activate the huge potential of China’s economy.
The word “stable” is at the forefront, and further efforts will be made to make cross-cyclical adjustments to keep the economy operating within a reasonable range-
Last year, China’s quarterly economic growth fluctuated greatly, and a base effect was formed this year. Cross-cyclical adjustments are needed to prevent large fluctuations in the growth rate, so that the two-year average growth rate and the month-on-month growth rate are as stable as possible and kept within a reasonable range.
“In the fourth quarter, to stabilize growth, we must better play the role of active fiscal policy, make good use of local government special bonds, and drive the expansion of effective investment.” Gao Ruidong said.
A series of reforms and measures to ensure supply and price stabilization were quickly introduced to further improve energy production and supply; multiple measures were taken to prevent the rise in commodity prices from being transmitted to the downstream of the supply chain, and to ensure the stability of residential electricity prices… Focus on the concerns of market entities and implement precise policies to stabilize the market Expectations can stabilize the economic fundamentals.
The word “new” leads, strives to deepen reform and opening up, and stimulates economic development potential——
This year, L’Oréal will “upgrade” its China headquarters in Shanghai to its North Asia headquarters. Ye Hongmu, CEO of L’Oréal Group, said that in the first half of the year, sales in mainland China increased by 34.2% year-on-year, which is still the main engine of the group’s performance growth and will continue to consolidate the Chinese mainland market in the future.
Promote the implementation of the cross-border service trade negative list nationwide, explore the construction of a national service trade innovation development demonstration zone; promote the introduction of trade and investment facilitation reform and innovation policy measures in the pilot free trade zone; further reform and improve the management of central financial research funds, and accelerate the construction of national experiments The strategic scientific and technological force led by the office… Aiming at the shortcomings in the construction of the new development pattern, reform and opening up to the deep water area, smooth economic circulation, and stimulate economic potential.
The heavy snow pressed the green pine, and the green pine was straight and straight. Embarking on a new journey, the more complex and severe the development situation, the more we must deepen reform and opening up, take high-quality development as the theme, fully implement the new development concept, and reshape the lasting driving force for future development while accelerating the construction of a new development pattern.
There are more than 70 days left until the beginning of the “14th Five-Year Plan”. We must keep a clear head and sprint with all efforts to ensure that the annual economic and social development goals are achieved on schedule and to make a good start for the “14th Five-Year Plan”. Take a good step. (Reporters Wei Yukun, Shen Cheng, Wang Yuxiao, Zou Duowei, Zhu Cheng, Zhao Yufei)