European stock markets move cautiously in the last session of the quarter. Investors are left with the prospect of one economic recovery post Covid faster than expected which could in turn lead to an early withdrawal of the ultra-expansionary measures by the central banks later rising inflation. The yields of the ten-year US Treasury thus remain above 1.7% – after having risen to 1.8% – on the day when US President Joe Biden will lift the veil on the maxi investment plan in infrastructure, which he had favored purchases already in the session of Tuesday 30 March.
“The increase in medium-long term interest rates reflects the marked improvement in the prospects for economic recovery – comments Luigi Nardella of Ceresio Investors – which will bring benefits especially for the profits of the more cyclical sectors», Penalized so far by the containment measures of the pandemic. Therefore, the rotation on equities should continue in the next few months “which since the beginning of the year has rewarded the banking, energy and industrial sectors to the detriment of stocks with a higher growth profile and with higher valuations may continue in the coming months”.
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Inflation returns to rise in Europe. In March + 0.8% in Italy
In March, the annual European inflation rate is expected to rise to 1.3% compared to February (0.9%). According to Eurostat estimates, prices are being pushed by energy which should have the highest rate (4.3% compared to -1.7% in February). On the domestic front, according to Istat’s preliminary estimates, prices in March recorded an increase of 0.3% on a monthly basis and of 0.8% on an annual basis (from + 0.6% in February). The inflation acquired for 2021 is equal to + 0.9% for the general index and + 0.5% for the core component.
At Piazza Affari, purchases reward Exor and Buzzi
Among the Milanese stocks with the highest capitalization, purchases on the FTSE MIB reward Exor and Buzzi Unicem. Eni is also doing well together with the entire oil sector while the price of crude oil is gaining ground on the eve of the OPEC + summit which should confirm the production cuts.