(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) – With eyes on the news related to Covid, but for an orphan day of Wall Street closed for Thanksgiving, the European stock exchanges open the session with a moderately positive bias. Fears of new possible lockdowns, which would hold back the momentum of the economic recovery, and the next moves by the Federal Reserve remain in the foreground. The minutes of the last Fed meeting and the public statements by several governors leave the door open to a rate hike as early as the first half of 2022. In the US, these are key days to understand the trend in retail spending and household confidence , which will be measured tomorrow with Black Friday.
Covid and monetary policy
The focuses of investors these days are two. On the one hand, the trend of the pandemic, with the fourth wave forcing more and more European states to consider lockdowns. On the other hand, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, which in the face of a strong jump in inflation and a more tonic labor market (yesterday requests for unemployment benefits fell to a minimum since 1969) could become more aggressive than expected: the market is starting to fear a faster reduction in pandemic stimuli (the Fed currently cuts bond purchases by 15 billion a month) and a faster rate hike, with three hikes already discounted in 2022.
Telecom always under the lens, Enel runs
In Piazza Affari, Telecom Italia will remain under the lens, after the jump of 15% on the eve of the day, triggered by the hypothesis that the Kkr fund could put on the plate a much higher price than the one initially indicated at 0.505 euros per share. Furthermore, there remains the puzzle about the CEO, Luigi Gubitosi, who is in a position of weakness, after 11 directors of the board last Saturday asked for the calling of a board of directors of the company. Enel is running ahead of a possible spin-off for electric mobility, while on the banking front, Unicredit is under observation, while the countdown has started for the presentation of the business plan scheduled for December 9th. Attention also to CNH after competitor Deere indicated that in 2022 it could record a record profit thanks to the strong demand for agricultural machinery.
Tokyo closes higher encouraged by US data
The Tokyo Stock Exchange closed 0.67% higher the day after substantial losses, encouraged in particular by positive US indicators and the continuing bearish trend of the yen against the dollar. The leading Nikkei index, which fell nearly 1.6% yesterday, closed at 29,499.28 points. The broad Topix index regained 0.33% to 2,025.69 points. A series of indicators released yesterday provided an overall positive picture of the US economy, including weekly unemployment claims to a 52-year low and an acceleration in household consumption in October. Wall Street, which generally sets the tone for Tokyo tomorrow, also appears to be getting used to the increasingly likely prospect of US monetary tightening.
The appointments on Thursday 25 November
With US markets closed for the holidays, there are few major macroeconomic data today. Today the ACEA presents the data relating to the month of September on registrations of commercial vehicles in the Eurozone. In Germany comes an important data on consumer confidence in December, which could confirm the decline in confidence recorded yesterday by German companies. Finally, in Italy at 10 am Istat presents the data on non-EU foreign trade for October.