MILANO – 11:00 am. Cautionary morning for European stock exchanges, with investors looking to the quarterly reports and to the board of the ECB; in the afternoon, then, attention shifts to the macro data coming from the United States, with weekly unemployment benefits and GDP for the third quarter.
London the 0.21% yields, Frankfurt lo 0.21%, Paris advances by 0.21% e Milano it is stable at + 0.05%. Prices have been weak in Asia, while US futures are slightly positive after the Nasdaq updated its intraday peak (and then closed flat) while the S & P500 ended down around half a percentage point. Fears of rising inflation, pressure on central banks to tighten monetary policy, rising Covid infections have pushed Asian stock markets lower. Concerns about the Chinese real estate sector and Evergrande’s future, as well as the uncertainty about Joe Biden’s social spending plan, also weighed, with the proposed tax on the rich that seems destined for a dead end. However, a series of positive corporate earnings has encouraged markets that are now awaiting the results of other big names like Apple and Amazon. In the wake of Wall Street, Tokyo closed down 0.96%, Shanghai lost 1.23% e Shenzhen l’1,4%.
ECB, Lagarde called to calm the market on rates
Today the Council of the ECB is facing a critical situation, even if concrete decisions are not expected in the immediate future. But Lagarde will be called upon to reassure investors. As Carmignac noted, “in recent weeks, sovereign bond yields in Europe and the US have moved sharply higher, reflecting the expectations of increasingly hawkish central bank markets on both sides of the Atlantic.” The prospect that inflation is more than a blaze has convinced the markets that bankers will have to intervene on rates, so “the Governing Council is expected to maintain an accommodating tone to preserve easy financing conditions and to stave off expectations of a rapid rise, “commented La Francaise AM. In essence, to quote Generali Investments, “Lagarde’s main task will be to calm the market’s concerns about inflation and the fact that the ECB is waiting too long “without” being forced by the markets to take real political action. “Allianz Global Investor expects that only in December the ECB” will announce the reduction in the volume of asset purchases under the PEPP and the probable launch of a new program. “According to some, after the anti-pandemic program that will close in March, the ECB is likely to launch another, short-lived and aimed at the post-pandemic, before returning to the old asset purchase program (App), which could also be made more flexible.
Unicredit, useful above expectations. Saipem in red
Internationally, the semiconductor crisis continues to worry: General Motors e Ford have reported lower profits due to the global crisis that has dented sales, prompting both US auto giants to warn that shortages will continue to persist into 2022. Despite this global phenomenon, Samsung ended the third quarter with net income up 31.3% year-on-year to 12.3 trillion won ($ 10.5 billion) and operating profit increased 28% to 15,800 billion won, in line with lines guide published at the beginning of the month. Strong growth also for St which saw third-quarter profit practically double to $ 474 million on revenue up 20%. From the accounts came positive indications for the European aircraft manufacturer Airbus which raised its annual profit target after making a profit of 404 million euros in the third quarter of this year.
Also in Italy it is the day of quarterly. Unicredit archives the first 9 months of 2021 with a profit of 3 billion euros (underlying 3.1 billion euros). Last year the same period closed with a loss of 1.6 billion. The third quarter recorded a profit of 1,058 million euros (the underlying 1.1 billion) above the estimates of 838 million. The share’s reaction on the stock market was positive. Telecom, on the other hand, was very heavy after the accounts released yesterday evening with downward estimates. Saipem closed the first 9 months of the year with a loss of 1.121 billion euros, against a loss of 1.016 billion in the same period last year. Revenues for the period fell 5.9% to € 5.064 billion. Francesco Caio said it will be more “sustainable, technological and profitable” and announced the agreement with TechnipFMC for new surfing opportunities.
Macro data: declining confidence for Italian consumers
Discordant data from Istat confidence indexes: a decrease in the consumer climate is estimated in October (from 119.6 to 118.4), while the composite index of business confidence is estimated to increase (from 113.7 to 115.0). The Institute explains that the manufacturing industry and the construction sector contribute to the improvement of business confidence. On the other hand, despite recording a decrease, the consumer confidence index remains “in any case at historically high levels. Among the nine series making up the index, all opinions on current trends worsen while expectations on the general economic situation improve. on unemployment and personal situation; the prospects for saving in the coming months are also improving “. In Germany, the unemployment rate fell to 5.4% in October from 5.5% the previous September.
Prices of Petroleum still down in Asian markets, after yesterday’s sharp drop following a larger-than-expected increase in weekly crude oil inventories in the US. The WTI with December delivery lost 1.74% to 81.22 dollars a barrel; Brent, again with December delivery, hit a two-week low and dropped 1.83% to settle at $ 83.03 a barrel.
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