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Original title: Supply and demand are tight again Coking coalSignificantly up
Source: Niuqian.com
Yesterday’s closing coking coal rose 3.56% to 2256 yuan, continuing to hit a new contract record high, and it has entered an accelerated upward trend. The volume can shrink from yesterday. The reason is that the supply is tight, the coal mine resumes production less than expected, the operating rate is low, and the supply of coking coal is in short supply. Triggered a sharp rise in prices. In the current situation of accelerating the rapid rise, we look forward to the possible trend of the coking coal market outlook through the fundamentals.
Tight supply and slow recovery
At present, there are still many restrictive factors in the supply of coking coal. The main producing areas are still under pressure due to safety and environmental inspections, and the resumption of production is not as expected, and the supply is difficult to expand. Other producing areas such as Inner Mongolia are restricted by the power curtailment policy, and Henan and Hebei are affected by weather factors such as rainfall. There are certain obstacles to production and transportation. The overall production supply of coal companies is limited. In the medium term, due to strict environmental protection and safety pressures, production capacity under construction is expected to be slow, domestic growth is limited, and imports of Australian coal and Mongolian coal are restored. It is also relatively slow, prices continue to rise, and it is difficult to see a substantial increase in customs clearance in the short term.
Demand fell slightly
Last week, Mysteel calculated a full sample of independent coking companies: the utilization rate excluding the eliminated capacity was 82.96%, which was a decrease of 1.83% from last week. According to the data, the demand fell slightly. The current coal price is at a high level. Due to the influence of weather and transportation, manufacturers are not willing to replenish inventory and are more cautious. In the medium term, although the policy of suppressing production in the downstream steel industry is gradually being implemented, it remains to be seen that the actual effect of suppressing demand for coking coal in consideration of the reduction in crude steel output is currently limited.
Inventory continues to fall
According to Mysteel data, steel mills stocks of 4.4164 million tons, port stocks of 1.65 million tons, independent coke enterprises stocks of 448,400 tons, and overall stocks of 6.5148 million tons, a decrease of 303,800 tons from last week. The inventory continues to fall slightly at a relatively low level. The price of coking coal has formed support, and the current market demand is relatively good, and short-term inventory is expected to remain low.
On the whole, the short-term coking coal supply pressure is relatively high, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and the inventory is low. Although the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document to release reserve coal, it will have little impact on the overall supply and demand. The price is expected to continue to be strong. It is observed that although the demand is affected by the implementation of the crude steel reduction policy, it is expected that the demand for coking coal will not have much impact, and it is expected to continue to operate on the strong side. The follow-up will mainly focus on the recovery of the supply side to adjust the strategy.
■Part of the data in this article comes from Huatai Futures, Guosen Futures, mysteel, and wind. They are for reference only and do not represent the views of this platform and the institution where they are based. Entry into the market is at your own risk. There are risks in the futures market, and investment needs to be cautious!
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