Original title: The supply side is still tight, bifocal futures continue to rise
Bijiao futures fluctuated strongly on the 9th, as of the close,Coking coal、CokeThe main contracts all closed up more than 1%. In terms of spot, coal coke as a whole is still dominated by an upward trend, and the tight supply side still plays an important role in supporting market sentiment.
According to data, the operating rate of coal mines rose to more than 98% last weekend, with little effort. Coal enterprises in Shanxi have picked up slightly, but coal mines in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia and other places in the northwest have declined, and domestic coal supply still cannot be eased. In addition, in terms of imports, Mongolian coal opened to traffic and returned to the vicinity of 200 vehicles (approximately 20,000 tons/day), but the current short-selling supply has been relatively limited, and whether the 200 vehicles can be maintained in the future needs to be further waited and seen. The supply of foreign coal is also more difficult. Yide Futures pointed out in the research report that the current coking coal gap is still more than 20,000 tons. However, the recovery of the supply of coking coal itself is not fast, and the operating rate of coking enterprises is in the recovery stage, and it is difficult to alleviate the overall supply gap.
In terms of coke, Yide Futures said that the price of coking coal in some coal mines in Shanxi continues to rise, and coking enterprises have relatively greater cost pressures, or they may continue to form strong cost support for coke. At present, the cost of coking coal into the furnace in Shanxi’s Luliang area has reached more than 1,900 yuan/ton, and the production cost of coking companies has reached more than 2,500 yuan/ton. Some coking companies are still under pressure to lose money after a round of increases.
After the first round of increases, some coking companies and traders have increased their willingness to restock and stock up, diverting the current coke market supply. Although the operating rate of coking enterprises has rebounded slightly this week, the steel mills have not increased their production restrictions for the time being, and there is still a gap in coke. According to Yide Futures estimates, the current supply and demand gap of coke is about 25,000 tons, and the support of coke itself is also strong. It is expected that the coke rise this time may last for 3 rounds or more.
“For the market this month, if the reduction in molten iron production is less than expected, that is, the average daily reduction in molten iron at the end of the month is maintained within 30,000 to 30,000 tons, the supply and demand gap in coke may be initially covered at the end of the month.” Futures analysis believes that, however, taking into account the diversion of coke by traders and the replenishment of importers, there is little pressure on the spot price of coke during the month, and attention will be paid to changes in the production of molten iron in the later period. In terms of coking coal, domestic coal still has room for recovery, but the operating rate of coking enterprises is in the process of recovery, and demand will also increase, and the tight supply and demand within the month will continue. Assuming that the steel mills’ efforts to restrict production in September will increase to above 50,000-70,000 tons, and the domestic supply of coking coal will return to the level at the beginning of June, the overall pressure on the supply and demand of coking coal may be eased.
Another major trading company recently issued a notice that starting from the settlement on August 9, 2021 (Monday), the margin levels for speculative trading of coking coal JM2109 and coking coal J2109 contracts will be adjusted from 15% and 11% to 20% and 15%, respectively, with price limits. The margin and the margin level for hedging transactions remain unchanged at 8%. (Xinhua Finance)
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