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Supply-side marginal improvement, limited upside for iron ore iron ore_Sina Finance_Sina Network

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Supply-side marginal improvement, limited upside for iron ore iron ore_Sina Finance_Sina Network

Source: Sinosteel Futures Author: Sinosteel Futures

The text of the research report

logic:yesterdayiron oreStone followed the double focus upward, and the stock replenishment before the festival exceeded expectations, and the raw materials were incokeThe supply and demand structure is better than that of iron ore, and coke squeezes iron ore prices under the pattern of long-term continuous and weak profits.

supply side,The global iron ore shipments have been steadily increasing, among which Vale’s shipments are relatively weak, Australia’s shipments to China have remained stable, the impact of typhoons on East China‘s arrivals has gradually disappeared, and the arrivals have rebounded significantly. Overall, short-term imported ore Supply-side support is marginally weaker. (September 12-September 18)

Mysteel Australia and Brazil 19 ports shipped a total of 25.418 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 1.677 million tons from the previous month. Australia’s shipment volume was 18.691 million tons, an increase of 1.270 million tons from the previous month, of which Australia’s shipment to China was 15.274 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 23,000 tons.

Brazil shipped 6.726 million tons, an increase of 407,000 tons from the previous month. Global iron ore shipments totaled 29.406 million tons, an increase of 820,000 tons from the previous month. (September 12-September 18)

The total amount of arrivals from the 47 ports in China was 25.192 million tons, an increase of 1.720 million tons from the previous month; the total amount of arrivals from the 45 ports in China was 23.596 million tons, an increase of 1.216 million tons from the previous month; the total number of arrivals from the six northern ports was 14.171 million tons, an increase of 3.894 million from the previous month. Ton.

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On the demand side,The number of production resumptions of Changliu Steel Plant is still increasing, so that the average daily hot metal production continues to rise, and the short-term demand remains at a moderately high level, but the space for demand growth is limited. (September 23)

Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills with a blast furnace operating rate of 82.81%, an increase of 0.40% from last week and a year-on-year increase of 5.37%; blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate of 89.08%, an increase of 0.75% from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 6.97%; the profit rate of steel mills was 47.19% , down 5.63% month-on-month and 40.69% year-on-year; the average daily production of molten iron was 2.4004 million tons, an increase of 20,200 tons month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 199,100 tons.

In terms of inventory,The profit of steel mills is higher than expected, but the strength of replenishment before the holiday is higher than expected, but the expected supply recovery and demand decline in the medium term remain unchanged, and supply and demand in the medium term will continue to be loose. (September 23) According to Mysteel statistics, the inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports across the country was 13,184.20, a month-on-month decrease of 534.72; the average daily port dredging volume was 315.14, an increase of 35.36.

In terms of quantity,Australian ore 5908.68 dropped 369, Brazilian ore 4598.33 dropped 39.83; trade ore 7859.74 dropped 361.54, pellet 578.55 dropped 11.11, fine powder 871.432 dropped 49.49, lump ore 2092.67 dropped 114.71, coarse powder 9641.55 dropped 359.41; strip. (Unit: 10,000 tons)

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According to Mysteel statistics, the total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports across the country was 138.543 million tons, down 5.7162 million tons from the previous month.

View:The short-term demand is relatively strong, but the room for growth is limited, the margin of supply is improving, the recovery of terminal demand is sustainable, and long-term profits are weak, and the overall short-term expectation is relatively weak.

Late concern/market risk:The strength of terminal demand recovery, the delivery of mainstream mines, and the strength of steel mills to replenish storage before the holiday.

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