ROMA – Gasoline prices and train tickets are flying. Coffee, dinners and aperitifs travel towards increases close to 2%, and the prices of tourist packages are already over 4%. While Confcommercio is making the accounts of 2020, recording a drop in consumption such as had not been seen since the post-war period (-11.7%, 126 billion less), Italians in May, the first month of reopening, have already started spending again, with a jump of 14.2% on last year.
For this year, Confcommercio’s forecasts are for an increase in consumption of 3.8%. An encouraging sign even if it is still too little to break even: “It will not be possible to recover even a third of what was lost during the pandemic,” estimates the director of the Research Department, Mariano Bella. And it is still an uncertain figure, “especially due to the unknowns on the restart of international tourism”.
Yet on the price side, there are already signs of caravans: the prices of bars, pastry shops, restaurants, ice cream parlors are on the rise. Tickets for amusement parks increase by 3.1% on an annual basis, those for museums by 2.4%, national parks and zoos plus 5%, holiday villages and campsites plus 1.4%: not mind-boggling increases, but all above the average inflation, which in May was 1.3%. The trend in hotel rates and international holiday packages was still negative, but probably because in May the functioning of the tourist passport had not yet been clarified.
The Consumers Union, which carried out the survey on the Istat database, underlines: «There are increases linked to demand, which is distributed only for certain sectors, meals outside the home, free time in the city. – observes Mauro Antonelli, from the study office of the association – Among other things, the month of May has not even had bridges this year. To see the real restart of consumption and prices we will have to wait until June ».
The most significant increases for those planning holidays are linked to energy prices: but in this case the internal demand has little weight, the increase is rather linked to the international prices of raw materials. In the annual comparison, the prices of gasoline (up 16.1%), intercontinental flights (up 15.4%), diesel for means of transport (up 15.1%) and train tickets (up 9.4%) explode. The increases in maritime transport are more contained (up 2.5%).
Confesercenti also looks forward to the opening season with confidence: «The restaurant industry has already started walking again, and in some cases even running – confirms Vittorio Messina, president of Assoturismo -. We expect a rather homogeneous response for July and August. The important thing is that it does not close again ».
The recovery and inflation linked to tourism, however, go at two speeds: the seaside resorts are already flying, the cities of art are still in “lockdown”. «Although the season hasn’t started yet due to the cold spring, many seaside resorts are already sold out. – confirms Antonio Capacchione, president of Sib Confcommercio – Foreign demand is also returning that last year did not exist, and this determines an injection of optimism ». And also an upward adjustment of the rates, admits the Bb, in the order of 2-3%.
The cities of art, on the other hand, are struggling: in Florence hotel rates fell by 12.1% in May, in Rome by 10.5%. «The cities of art thrive on international tourism. – says Aldo Cursano, deputy president of Fipe Confcommercio – Also because residents no longer live in historic centers, and many offices are still in smart working. If you do not aim for specific policies, which ensure that at least the residents can regain possession of their cities, to see a museum, have an ice cream, go to a restaurant, even large companies will be forced to close “.
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